Journalists’ Roundtable: Arizona budget forecast, funding and more

April 25

This week’s topics:

Funding for disability program
JLBC budget forecast
Trump endorses Biggs too
Fontes to run for second term

Bill for funding Arizona’s disability program is signed

Jeremy Duda: “They finally reached kind of a compromised agreement after the Governor used her nuclear option last week and said, ‘I will veto every bill that gets to my desk until we get a solution to this $122 million shortfall.’ That seems like it prodded everyone to a bit of action.”

Duda: “And so they finally, on Wednesday night, they hammered out a deal, and everyone kind of gave a little and the plus side is the developmental disabilities program will not run out of funding in a week.”

Mary Jo Pitzl: “The real flash point was a program called ‘Parents As Paid Caregivers.’ As the name would suggest, this is money to pay parents for providing care for their children with disabilities. It started during the pandemic with federal-only money. Last year, the federal contribution was cut back to 2/3, the state had to put in 1/3. Governor Hobbs agreed to do that, apparently it’s within her right to do that. But she didn’t tell lawmakers that was the plan, and enrollment in this program has grown pretty explosively.”

Pitzl: “Many of them are giving up their careers and their jobs to care for their children so this provides some compensation, and that’s what really lit the fire.”

What does this look like for the next election season?

Pitzl: “But then Hobbs will say ‘I saved these families all kinds of pain’ because the bills that were even introduced this week, as we’re trying to get this done, we’re rather harsh and couldn’t even get all the Republicans on board so they were trying to keep until the end with the 20 hour limit.”

What does the JLBC budget forecast look like?

Howie Fischer: “Even before the President decided to blow up the economic system and tariffs and everything else, we were originally looking at a surplus for next year of some $630 million mas o menos. Well, now we’re down to about $230 million for surplus. What that means is that’s where all the extra programs have to come out of.”

Fischer: “What’s interesting is the joint list budget committee composed of private economists and some government economists. They’re the people that go ahead and they butcher a chicken and burn the bones, and they try to figure out what it means. They’re saying, ‘We can’t make a prediction when you have an economy that’s been destroyed by the President.’ Half the state budget is sales taxes. If people are buying less, we are in deep trouble.”

Stress test for a future recession?

Pitzl: “The result was that for the coming budget year, 0% growth in the budget and for the following year, a -2% decline, and they noted that even with the state’s rainy day fund, which they do not touch because it’s never raining, would never fill the gap so there’s a great tone of caution.”

Fischer: “We have certain segments of our economy, agriculture and home construction, I’m not going down a large limb and saying there is a certain percentage of people there who are not here legally. If they really start coming in and do deportations, that too will affect the economy.”

With the current economy, do we wait or charge ahead?

Fischer: “You have to charge ahead. Number one is, unlike the federal government who’s going to pass continuing resolutions and their fiscal year runs through September 30, we have a hard and fast June 30 deadline. Schools need to know how much they’re going to have. Are they going to need to start laying off teachers? Because you already have a small decline in terms of growth of kids in public schools.”

President Trump endorses more candidates for governor

Duda: “In December, he took the stage at a rally out here in Phoenix and told Karrin Taylor Robson, ‘If you run for governor, which I think you’re going to, you’re going to have my support,’ and then a couple months later, Andy Biggs decided he was going to get into that race, which complicates things because Andy Biggs is a MAGA guy; he is close with the President.”

Duda: “Trump did what a lot of us expected: ‘Guess what? You’re both great candidates. You both get endorsements!'”

What does this mean for Karrin Taylor Robson?

Duda: “I think Biggs lacks some of the very unique flaws and faults that Kari Lake had as a candidate, but I still don’t think there’s any question that Katie Hobbs would rather see him in a general election than Karrin Taylor Robson, who, despite the fact that she’s campaigning as a Trump-endorsed candidate, Karrin Taylor Robson is more of an established Republican.”

Fischer: “This [primary election] is going to be one for the books. Karrin is interesting because when she was asked about the dual endorsement, she never once mentioned he endorsed someone else. ‘I’m so glad to have the President’s endorsement.'”

Is Adrian Fontes running for re-election?

Duda: “He was a potential candidates for a lot of different offices. I don’t think anyone actually believed that he was going to challenge Katie Hobbs in the primary. Definitely looked like he was about to get into that special election for Raul Grijalva’s seat. Changed course pretty quickly then. From there became pretty clear he would be seeking re-election.”

Pitzl: “Gina Swoboda, the chairwoman of the Republican party, is rumored to maybe be getting into the Republican race.”