Super Tuesday

Feb. 7, 2008

Transcript:

José Cárdenas:
Good evening, I'm José Cárdenas. Welcome to Horizonte.

John McCain:
Tonight I think we must get used to the idea that we are the Republican Party front runner for the nomination -- [cheers and applause]

José Cárdenas:
Super Tuesday voters say yes to Senator John McCain with a victory in Arizona and other key states. And the Latino vote, where did it make a difference and how is it shaping up to be one of the factors in determining who will be the next president? Coming up next on Horizonte, an analysis of Super Tuesday primaries and what it means for the presidential race.

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José Cárdenas:
Super Tuesday put Arizona senior Senator John McCain as the front runner in the republican race. While Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama split victories in Super Tuesday contests in a tight race for the Arizona -- for the democratic nomination nationally. In Arizona, Hillary Clinton won with 51% of the vote and Obama at 42%. John McCain won his home state with 47% of the vote. Mitt Romney was second with 34%. Here to talk about these results and others across the country are Alfredo Gutierrez, former state legislator and a political consultant for Tequida and Gutierrez. And Jaime Molera, is the former Arizona superintendent of public instruction and a partner at Molera Alvarez group. Gentlemen, thanks for joining us on Horizonte.

Jaime Molera:
Good to be here.

José Cárdenas:
Alfredo, first, you heard the figures for Clinton, Obama on the democratic side. Any surprises given that Governor Napolitano came out in support of Obama?

Alfredo Gutierrez:
No. What those numbers reflect is the reality of early voting. The fact is that the Obama momentum is a last-minute surge, something that's been sort of overwhelming. But only in the past few days. Those people who started voting days ago recall that early ballots went out right after Iowa. So the people started voting very early. They were voting when the polls were reflecting Senator Clinton winning this state at double digits, triple digits and it was, there was -- there was just no way she was going to be stopped. She was termed the inevitable candidate, as you recall. As this has closed, those numbers reflect what happened on Election Day. But it was insufficient time for Obama for that surge to reflect itself on the vote. I think that's true of Arizona, true for California that also has a very liberal early voting policy.

José Cárdenas:
What did the governor's endorsement, though, have any beneficial impact for Obama?

Alfredo Gutierrez:
I am sure it did. I'm sure it did. How we measure that is going to be, is going to be very difficult. Exit polling that I have seen does not reflect it. That question wasn't asked. Did you vote for Obama because of governor Napolitano? But there's no question her positives amongst Democrats are very, very high. And I am sure it was a contribution --

José Cárdenas:
Polling did show 62% of the female vote going to Clinton, which suggests that the Governor who is very popular generally in the state, you would think particularly would be the female vote in this particular primary, may not have had the effect.

Alfredo Gutierrez:
It may not have. I suspect that it made people think about it and people who were leaning towards Obama. It, along with Obama -- rather with Oprah's endorsement with Ms. Kennedy's endorsement, all of that had, I think, the impact of saying it's ok. Think about it. And those people who had some predisposition, some doubt, about going forward with Senator Clinton, that made it easier, I suspect.

José Cárdenas:
Jaime, on the Republican side, Senator McCain won his primary as many expected he would. Some suggestion by some of the pundits that it wasn't as easy as you would have thought and that Romney did better than expected. What's your view on that?

Jaime Molera:
I don't think he did. You think about how much money Romney has compared to McCain and it's pretty significant. Romney's spent about $82 million to date. McCain has spent about half of that if even that. And so McCain has had to fight in large measure to, a lot of different states without having the resources to do like a mass media, what I call the carpet bombing, being able to lay the groundwork with a lot of the television that Romney had. So if you take that out of the equation, or take that into the equation that McCain has had a very tough time getting his message out to counter a lot of the negative attacks that Romney has thrown at him.

José Cárdenas:
One of those attacks is that McCain is "soft on immigration." Arizona seems to be ground zero for that entire debate and so wouldn't you have expected Romney to benefit from that?

Jaime Molera:
He probably did to some extent with some of the very hard right conservatives. I suspect over the next few days and couple of weeks, Romney is going to be using that quite a bit. His position now, he is going to have to, have to go after McCain in a very, very negative way. I suspect he's probably going to ignore Huckabee, even to the extent that if Huckabee can win a couple of states, as long as McCain doesn't win them that's going to be Romney's strategy. If he can continue to build this coalition, if you will, of conservative voices around the country to say McCain cannot be the representative of the Republican Party, so basically a stop McCain movement, I think that that's going to be -- that's his only strategy. That's his only play he has left. Problem is I just don't think it's going to work because in large measure now, McCain is getting the resources to really start to be able to fire back at Romney and his attacks. Huckabee is not playing along, which I think benefits McCain. Huckabee, in all intensive purposes is probably seen as even more conservative than Romney. But in large measure, he's not attacking McCain as being soft on anything. So I think that tends to balance things out for McCain.

José Cárdenas:
Maybe makes him a running mate for Senator McCain?

Jaime Molera:
Possibly. I think a lot of it's going to play out on who the Democrats pick as their ultimate nominee. It all comes down to the Electoral College. I think they're going to be very, very cordial with each other. I think it's interesting how, from what I understand, there's a very good relationship between those two men, and it's interesting also that they tend to share not a good feeling towards Mr. Romney. So I think that's interesting how that dynamic is playing out in this election.

José Cárdenas:
Alfredo, nationally we focused on the results here in Arizona. Nationally, how's it look for Obama and Clinton in terms of where we can expect things to go from here?

Alfredo Gutierrez:
The super delegates, the super delegates being the governors, congress people, U.S. senators who are Democrat but if you set aside therefore the elected officials super delegates, what you have is an almost even split. Obama clearly won yesterday by 30 or so, 30 or so delegates. It wasn't -- it wasn't an overwhelming victory but it was a victory. So you now have this, what virtually looks like a tie --

José Cárdenas:
Does not include the super delegates?

Alfredo Gutierrez:
Does not include the super delegates. The reason I'm not including them because the super delegates are not pledged. They're on the senator's side today but they can be on the other senator's side tomorrow and you choose the senator. And they are politicians. They tend to have that little finger up in the air. They will move. They are going to move as this goes on. So what you have got is now, you are going to go into three states this weekend, two of them are caucus states. Senator Obama has won every caucus state and the third state is Louisiana which has significant African American population and he's won that at a percentile upwards of 80%. It's very likely he's going to win those. And then you are off to the following week into the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia, and again, that's very likely he's going to fare very well. So that Senator Clinton's next fire wall is Texas. And by that time, the momentum may have grown to such a point that it just overwhelms.

José Cárdenas:
Texas and Pennsylvania right?

Alfredo Gutierrez:
Pennsylvania follows. Pennsylvania is the last, it's in April. Texas is in March. Pennsylvania is the last, the last primary. It's almost impossible to imagine a circumstance where it won't be resolved before Pennsylvania. But it may indeed be the last fire wall.

José Cárdenas:
Jaime, with respect to the Republican side of this, where do you expect things to go? Is Romney going to drop out any time soon?

Jaime Molera:
I don't think he'll drop out any time soon. I think he'll see how he does in this next couple of states that are coming up. They have Washington, they have Louisiana. They're going to have what's called the Potomac Primary which I think is pretty important to him because Virginia and Maryland I think are going to be indicative as to how well he can do. Particularly Virginia.
I think that's one of the states where he's put in a lot of resources. He's really going to make a big play for that. If McCain did do well -- if McCain can take either one of those states, I think it just shows that this train has left the station. I think people are going to say, you know what? He's the guy that has the best chance to beat the democrats. Which is, when you look at polling data and look at exit polls it's clear McCain has that momentum and the belief that with the two Democratic candidates out there he is the best chance for Republicans to keep the White House.

José Cárdenas:
We have wrapped up kind of the points I wanted to cover kind of on the general points, the gender issue and stuff. We want to focus now on the impact of the Hispanic vote. We have some information we want to share with our viewers to talk about the political influence of the Hispanic voters and its growing impact. It's already been proven to play a key role in the primaries for the first time ever with presidential candidates campaigning to get the Hispanic vote. Producer Mike Sauceda tells us more.

Mike Sauceda:
A night of partying at the Disney resort in Florida by members of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. Some 1,000 members of NALEAO showed up for the group's convention held in Orlando, Florida, at the Disney resort. The group has 6,000 members, a far cry from the handful who started the group 31 years ago. NALEAO has grown because the Hispanic population has grown and that means more Hispanic voters.

Arturo Vargas:
The Latino vote reached historic proportion. It was about 8% of the national vote which is the highest national share of a Latino vote in any election, be it midterm election or presidential election. So I think that really set the stage for historic turnout in '08.

Mike Sauceda:
According to do U.S. census, 58% of the Hispanics were registered to vote in 2004 and there are 35 million Hispanics in the country. Hispanics registration and voting rates are lower than almost all ethnic groups except Asians. 75% of whites are registered to vote. 69% of blacks are registered and 52% of Asians are registered to vote. Hispanics also vote in lower percentages, 67% of whites voted in 2004, 60% of blacks, followed by Hispanics at 47% and Asians at 44%.

Arturo Vargas:
Well, there is performance gap. Latinos are less likely to register to vote and to vote than say whites or African Americans. And that's a problem. And that's why at NALEAO we are going to do something about it. That's why we have launched -- it's time, citizenship, to increase the number of people applying to be citizens and that's going to translate the next step into -- it's time to vote.

Bill Richardson:
I want to just spend time hugging all of you. [Laughter]

Mike Sauceda:
Bill Richardson was first major candidate to run for president who was Hispanic but if he were still running he couldn't necessarily count on Hispanics voting for him.

Arturo Vargas:
I think what drives Latino voters is Latino interests. Latino listens to what candidates say. They look at circumstances of an election. They are not going to vote simply because it's always an R or always a D or because it's a Latino running here. Because even if some races where there is a Latino candidate, you say, aren't Latinos going to vote for the Latino? No, Latinos have become a very sophisticated element of the electorate. And they are going to look at what their interests are and what the candidates are saying.

Mike Sauceda:
Although Richardson is no longer in the race Hispanics will play a bigger role in Super Tuesday than they have in past primaries. With several states with large Hispanic populations participating in the election.

Arturo Vargas:
An analysis of the accelerated primary schedule. We are calling February 5th super duper Tuesday because states including California, Arizona, New York, Illinois, states that add up to 60% of all Latino voters in the country are going to have their primaries or their caucuses by February 5th. So in no - it's the first time that in a presidential election Latinos will have an opportunity to really decide the party's nominee.

Mike Sauceda:
The NALEAO conference was held in Florida, a state rich in Hispanic political history. Dr. Dario Moreno teaches Florida politics at Florida International University.

Dario Moreno:
Florida was governed by Cuba during Spanish time. The, when Florida was a U.S. territory, it actually sent a Cuban to the U.S. congress as the territorial representative. But when Cubans really became political active in modern times has been in the 1980's, where Cuban representation was -- Hispanic representation in Florida was basically zero. And now we have 14 members of the state House, three state senators, three U.S. congressmen, and one U.S. Senator, Mel Martinez. But what's interesting about Florida is that Florida is not just dominated by Cubans. In fact, Cubans are only -- less than a third of all the Hispanics in Florida. But in Florida, you see increased numbers of Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Venezuelans, Colombians and all these groups are beginning to work together.

Mike Sauceda:
As Hispanics migrate all over the United States and from different Latino countries, Florida might be seen as a model of Hispanic voting trends in the U.S.

Dario Moreno:
I think it is. And I think that Latino and I think what's interesting about Florida is that the Latino population is coming together. And that, you know, 20 years ago, Mexican Americans were all in the southwest. Cubans were all in Miami. Puerto Ricans were all in New York and Connecticut and New Jersey. And now what we're seeing is, these populations are migrating within the United States and meeting each other. And we find there are some differences, that there are some tensions. But we speak the same language. We have the same historic roots. And often we have the same interests in terms of the importance of our culture and our traditions. And that our, and that we have a lot more in common than what divides us. So I think it speaks well, I think the example of Florida speaks well for a Hispanic agenda.

José Cárdenas:
We've been talking about Super Tuesday results and now I want to talk about the impact of the Latino vote in candidate victories on Tuesday and past primaries. Here again are political analysts Alfredo Gutierrez and Jaime Molera. I want to show our viewers some information we got from the Pew Hispanic center in terms of what the Hispanic vote looks like. 57% of the registered Hispanic voters are Democrats. 23% of the registered Hispanic voters are Republicans. And then in terms of the percentages of voters in Arizona and California, who of Latinos eligible to vote, it's 37% in Arizona and 38% of the eligible voters in California are Latinos. Now, the numbers, of course, are much bigger. In Arizona we are talking about a percentage of about 670,000 voters. And in California, it's 5 million. How does all that play out, Alfredo, in terms of impact? Because traditionally, Hispanics haven't voted in the same numbers proportional not only to their population but also to the number who are registered.

Alfredo Gutierrez:
I think the immigration issue; the immigration issue has begun to change the landscape completely. If you look at Florida, I think senator McCain can contribute his victory to Cuban Americans. Cuban Americans are not impacted by immigration as the rest of Hispanics because of a special policy towards them. Nonetheless, the cultural debate that made about Hispanics being less than in this Latino invasion of America, this language assault, that is been carried out within the Republican Party, has had an impact. But the impact isn't the one they expected. There is simply no evidence anywhere in the country that immigration is driving voters to throw out the McCains of the world. It's precisely the opposite. The McCains, that is, moderate republicans are winning to great consternation of Rush Limbaugh and Hannity and the established Republican Party in Arizona. So that's one impact. The other impact I think we're seeing in the Democratic primary, and it isn't for whom people chose. It is the fact that we're seeing historic numbers begin to participate. And we're seeing real differences in this black focus and young people vote differently than older folks. We are seeing this vibrant battle within the Hispanic community on the democratic side. And the numbers you chose, or you showed, let me say one last thing, are national in nature. And when you separate Cuban Americans from the rest of the Hispanic community that also varies dramatically. In other words, there are more Democrats among non-Cubans. Why? Because the immigration issue is impacting every other community equally except for Cuban Americans.

José Cárdenas:
Jaime, talking about numbers, the latest Pew Hispanic Center report entitled "Hispanics in the 2008 election, a swing vote," shows a reversal of the trend towards the republican party by Hispanic voters, and now you have 57% of Hispanic registered voters identifying themselves as Democrats and only 23% aligning themselves with the Republican Party. And just a few years ago the numbers were much better for the republicans. What's happening?

Jaime Molera:
Well, I think a lot of the issues Alfredo touched on have made an impact. There's been a very -- I think vitriolic immigration debate, it's not so much the policy but I think the tone of it. The tone that while you people, or you folks don't belong here. And that tends to upset Latinos. I think Republican or Democrat, it's, they might agree with stronger enforcement along the borders. They might agree with employer sanctions. They might agree with those kinds of things but I think the tone has really turned off a lot of Latinos. However --

José Cárdenas:
Even the people who are two or three generations removed from immigrant status?

Jaime Molera:
Oh, I think so. The cultural ties and I think again some of the rhetoric that's been thrown out there tends to upset a lot of Latinos that, listen, this is not about being anti-Mexican, being anti-Latino. This is about creating good policy and they just feel a lot of the tone has been very, very negative. But one of the things that is the shining light, I think, for the Republicans is John McCain. If you look at all the candidates that could be put out there that really could, I think rally a lot of the Latinos, you know what, here's a man that, to his detriment, was willing to stand up and fight for a reasonable immigration policy, fight for the kinds of things that we all know would be sensible, whether they agree to them or not on the immigration debate, for instance, I think it gives a lot -- it will give him a lot of credit. And that is the one candidate that I believe if they split the Latino vote in '08 McCain will have a very good night and the republicans will have a very good night. A lot of the swing states that are going to be the battle ground because Latinos have a big vote, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, those are states that go either way. And the last couple of elections have shown that. McCain's ability to attract Latinos is going to be a big difference.

José Cárdenas:
I guess the question is whether it will make a difference. The Pew report is a swing vote question mark. And just to go back to the numbers. Hispanics are 46 million people in the United States. They are 15% of the population. 9% of the eligible electorate but only 6.5% of the turnout. Alfredo, does it make any difference?

Alfredo Gutierrez:
I don't think it does. And I admire --

José Cárdenas:
-- in terms of impact.

Alfredo Gutierrez:
Exactly. I admire Senator McCain greatly. So this is not a criticism of him personally because I admire him greatly. A lot of people are going to walk into a Republican Convention where, in order for him to be able to embrace the conservatives he's going to have to, there's going to be five days or six days of national television of immigrant bashing, the worst possible kind of hatred that already is expressed and so then to say, "Well, by the way, vote for me" I think is going to be one impossible to do. That bridge won't be able to be crossed. So I think he is going to lose states that he might otherwise have won, Texas, for example, are states that are going to go in a different direction. The social issues, abortion, for example, amongst Republican Hispanics, Hispanics who, in the past were Republicans who are becoming Democrats, abortion is just as important to them. You got to recall the bible talks, in fact, about abortion in the Old Testament, it's Christ himself who talks about -- the foreigner and how he is to be treated. And so the evangelicals have this competing arguments, if you will, one by Christ himself and they have got to balance those. And Hispanics --

José Cárdenas:
-- seems to be pretty good on immigration.

Alfredo Gutierrez:
He does, indeed. Evangelicals are balancing that more and more for their congregation to talk about some decent policy. So even on those very fundamental conservative issues, Hispanic evangelicals, Hispanic conservatives are being forced to choose between issues that would otherwise be Republicans on. But choosing to be Democrats because of the immigration issue. And being pushed by a very small percentage of Republicans and why that is so obvious is that there is simply no Republican that can show that that -- that issue has won for them, including Mitt Romney. Who spent a fortune trying to deport us all. Or to sell that as a public policy. It hasn't worked.

José Cárdenas:
Let me ask you both, and you first, Jaime, kind of a national level, there's a suggestion that there's a black-brown issue. And I want to talk to Alfredo about how that may have played out in Arizona and in the primaries. But do you think that may have any impact on the national election? Either pushing black voters to the Republican Party because they feel that Hispanics are getting too much attention from the Democrats or vice versa?

Jaime Molera:
If Obama is a candidate, I think it does. It's unfortunate but if you look at all the exit polls, by and large, you have a large percentage of Latinos going over to Hillary Clinton. And in large measure because the Clintons have had a strong record on for a lot of Democrat Latinos they feel that's what they need to continue.

José Cárdenas:
And let me ask because we are almost out of time, you only have 30 seconds, Alfredo, in Arizona, black-brown issue that's had an impact, or even nationally, between Obama and --

Alfredo Gutierrez:
I think there has been an -- I think it is, what we are seeing is we begun this race with 76% of Hispanics voting for Senator Clinton in Nevada. It has declined since in Arizona, it was slightly above 50%. In Illinois it was less than 50%. In California it was about 50%, but clearly the trend line is the same as it is nationally. There is a strong trend for Hispanics, especially young Hispanics, to move towards Obama. And I think by the time we get to Texas, that's going to be obliterated. That black-brown distinction will be gone.

José Cárdenas:
Ok and we're going to be obliterated in a few seconds because we're out of time. But gentlemen, thank you both for joining us on Horizonte. I apologize for the shortness. I'm José Cárdenas. We hope you'll join us next Thursday night. Have a good evening.