Cronkite-Eight Poll

Feb. 27, 2007

Transcript:

Cary Pfeffer:
Tonight on Horizon, we look at opinions about some of the potential presidential candidates, in the results of our latest Cronkite-eight poll. Plus, he was featured in the 2004 film hotel Rwanda. Paul Rusesabagina was recently in Arizona to speak to students about his experience saving more than 1200 people from the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Next on Horizon.

Announcer:
Horizon is made possible by contributions from the friends of Eight, members of your Arizona PBS station. Thank you.

Cary Pfeffer:
Good evening, I'm Cary Pfeffer, welcome to Horizon. Tucson state lawmaker and soldier Jonathan Paton returned from his six-month tour of duty in Iraq last week and was sworn in today at the state legislature.

Judge:
Please raise your right hand and repeat after me. I, Jonathan Payton do solemnly swear --

Jonathan Paton:
I, Jonathan Payton do solemnly swear --

Judge:
That I will support the constitution of the United States of America.

Jonathan Paton:
That I will support the constitution of the United States of America.

Judge:
And the constitution and laws of the State of Arizona.

Jonathan Paton:
And the constitution and laws of the State of Arizona.

Judge:
And I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same.

Jonathan Paton:
And I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same.

Judge:
And defend them against all enemies.

Jonathan Paton:
And defend them against all enemies.

Judge:
Foreign and domestic.

Jonathan Paton:
Foreign and domestic.

Judge:
And I will faithfully -- the duties of the office of the state representative of the State of Arizona.

Jonathan Paton:
And I will faithfully -- the duties of the office of the state representative of the State of Arizona.

Judge:
According to the best of my ability.

Jonathan Paton:
According to the best of my ability.

Judge:
So help me God.

Jonathan Paton:
So help me God.

Cary Pfeffer:
That happening today at the state legislature. Arizona senator John McCain is in the lead in Arizona. And voters would like to see more immigration bills passed. Those are some of the results of the latest Cronkite-eight poll. The poll was conducted February 22nd through the 25th by KAET-Eight TV and the Walter Cronkite school of journalism and mass communication at Arizona state university. It has a margin of error of four percent, and 600 registered Arizona voters were surveyed. Here are the results.

Mike Sauceda:
The latest Cronkite eight poll found in the race for president among republicans. Senator John McCain was favored by had 44% of Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani received -- and former Massachusetts governor mitt Romney came in at 6% and California congressman Duncan hunter trailed with 2%. Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton leads the pack with 28% of democrats saying they will vote for her, Barack Obama gets 24%. -- John Edwards has 14% of support. We pitted Clinton and McCain in a head-to-head fight in our poll. McCain came out ahead. One of the issues in the presidential race is abortion. 64% think the court should uphold roe versus wade, 30% feel it should be overturned. 65% of those we surveyed like a bill that would allow illegal immigrants to be charged with criminal trespass. 27% oppose that bill. 55% of those we asked support a bill that would make it a felony for businesses in Arizona to employ illegal immigrants. 47% don't support the bill. A bill that would classify illegal immigrants as domestic terrorists if they commit a serious crime in the U.S. was -- 38% do not support the bill. The final illegal immigration-related measure we asked about was whether people would support a bill that would ban governments from issuing I.D. cards from foreign governments. -- banning teachers from taking sides in political issues or campaigns during class time. 37% support the measure, 54% don't want that to pass. Another bill would allow people to pay a toll to drive in H.O.V. lanes then called hot lanes. 31% like the idea, 60% don't. Finally we asked people whether they would support allowing hybrid vehicles to drive in H.O.V. lanes. 64% support that idea. 34% are against it.

Cary Pfeffer:
And here to discuss the Cronkite eight poll is its director, Dr. Bruce Merrill and graduate assistant for the poll, Travis Murphy. Thank you both for being here.

Bruce Merrill:
This is really terrible with the wig on.

Cary Pfeffer:
You may notice a mix of personalities here in this process. That's all right. Welcome, Travis. We're glad you're here. We'll start with you, baptism by fire. We'll throw you right in. Talk a little bit about the presidential numbers. Certainly you'd expect John McCain to do well. This is his state. There's been some sort of behind the scenes inside the Republican party efforts that have not necessarily been kind to him. What do you make of the numbers?

Travis Murphy:
Well, you look at 44% within a field of 5 individuals in a primary and you ask is 44% high or low. A lot of the fighting for the conservatives versus moderate is split but you look at Rudy Giuliani with 25%, somewhat of a similar ilk. You'd expect him to have high numbers where he served in his own state for quite some time but it's reflected better in the head-to-head competition.

Cary Pfeffer:
Bruce talk a little bit about the history here. John McCain has certainly enjoyed when it comes to election time he enjoyed the support. But the longer you're out there as a public figure the tougher it can be.

Bruce Merrill:
There's no question there are some right wing elements in the Republican party that dislike him very much. They tried to recall him a couple of times. And I think that is reflected. And I think we can't dismiss that easily. Because John -- senator McCain has to get through the primary process first. And it's the more conservative right-wingers that disproportionately vote. They're the once that don't like him. So in away what he's facing in Arizona is kind of a microcosm for the nation. He's got to figure out, how do I get these more conservative voters to support me this.

Cary Pfeffer:
You're seeing that play out in his national appearances whether showing up in south Carolina or whatever. Obviously it's sort of the top of his agenda. You also see that because when you looked at the numbers between he and Hillary Rodham Clinton, for example, you do see him that sort of across the board support showing up pretty well for him.

Bruce Merrill:
Yes. I think it's realistically -- I don't foresee anybody defeating senator McCain in Arizona. It's his home state. He knows the loss would be devastating. So he'll put a lot of resources into it.

Cary Pfeffer:
All right. Travis, also on the national front, the continued discussion and focus on the Supreme Court looks to an eventual question and sort of showdown on roe versus wade. You asked that question as well.

Travis Murphy:
We did. We took a look at this. It was about 60% of the population of Arizona chose to uphold the Supreme Court ruling. And as Bruce can testify, to that's been pretty standard over the history of doing this poll in Arizona is about 60% uphold maintaining that Supreme Court ruling.

Cary Pfeffer:
And for outsiders sometimes who think of Arizona as a bastion of sort of the conservative viewpoint, that might surprise, like I say, people who have that sort of maybe outsider's view?

Travis Murphy:
Certainly. When you look at the history of the state and Barry Goldwater, I think people would tend to believe that it's more of a conservative stat state. But a lot of factors that influence -- the immigration of people coming into the state has certainly changed over time. But it's maintained pretty standard at 60%.

Cary Pfeffer:
We'll see how that plays out it. Always continues to be a major point of discussion. Also always a major point of discussion in our state is transportation and transportation issues in general. Bruce, let's talk a little bit about where you're headed and what you were hoping to get. What kind of information you were hoping to mine with some of the questions that you asked along those lines.

Bruce Merrill:
Well, we do know, Cary, as you pointed out, that we've asked people what they're most concerned about. And it's always the border issues, transportation and reform of education. We asked three questions on what people feel about some new programs that have been proposed to make it harder on illegal immigrants. And what we find is it doesn't matter what we ask, people are for any kind of a program that appears to do something. What I think the poll is measuring is people are frustrated, they don't see either the feds or the state government doing anything. So they're willing to designate illegal immigrants domestic terrorists. If somebody will listen. If somebody will do something. And I think that's what we consistently find.

Cary Pfeffer
And Travis, when you look across the board at these -- whether it's the questions that were asked for this particular poll or in the past, that seems to be a reoccurring theme, that there's sort of an outcry for something to be done.

Travis Murphy:
Absolutely. You look at the last election in November of 2006. A number of proposals, propositions on the ballot that dealt with illegal immigration in some capacity. And were almost identical in the percentages by which they passed.

Cary Pfeffer:
So what is, for example, when state lawmakers see this, some of them are going to interpret it quite literally, and others will sort of take the interpretation that Dr. Merrill is talking about that it's a representation of the frustration. Likely we'll see both sides play out at the legislature.

Travis Murphy:
Certainly. The frustration is what angle to take with it. Is this a federal issue, is this a local issue? How far do we ratchet up the borders and the different angles on this are -- many different angles. And that will continue.

Cary Pfeffer:
And as we said, if it's not immigration it's transportation. We've looked at a number of different issues there, especially trying to incorporate those H.O.V. lanes and trying to figure out how to I guess be a little more imagine tiff with that process?

Bruce Merrill:
Cary, what was interesting in this one is we asked some questions about the governor's mandate that she's going to allow hybrid gasoline vehicles to use the H.O.V. lanes. People supported that. But at the same time, they did not support toll roads. Turning some of these lanes into hot lanes that people could go into.

Cary Pfeffer:
I guess the idea is that they would be able to pay a fee and be able to therefore have access to it. And people have a little problem with that.

Bruce Merrill:
Well, I think it's a combination of one. I'm not sure they think it's something that a private company should do. And second, in the west particularly we have this love about cars. And it's kind of like, why should we pay to drive, you know? It's kind of like if you live in the northwest why should I pay for water? It's just something that's owed to us. So I think that's what's happening there.

Cary Pfeffer:
And Travis, also some of the environmental concerns reflected in these questions as well?

Travis Murphy:
I would think so, absolutely. That ability to have those hybrid cars in there is starting to show the trend towards a more green mentality in the state and in the nation as a whole.

Cary Pfeffer:
And Al Gore was on the academy awards.

Bruce Merrill:
And you might want to watch, Cary. He may end up being a candidate for the democratic presidential nomination.

Cary Pfeffer:
Yeah, it was interesting. I mean, he joked about it during the ceremony. But at the same time, you can't -- having an audience in front of that many people, having that kind of a platform really, I think it had -- I happened to be watching with a group of sort of politicos, university professors, journalists and that sort of thing. You couldn't help but think there might be something more.

Bruce Merrill:
There might be fire where there's smoke.

Cary Pfeffer:
We'll see what happens there. Lastly, since we're in an academic setting we're here, I have to talk about the results on the question about what do you do with opinions in the classroom. People were pretty clear on that, had an opinion on that one as well.

Bruce Merrill:
We'll probably have Travis do this since he's a student in the class and I'm a teacher.

Travis Murphy:
Bruce is sitting right next to me.

Cary Pfeffer:
Exactly. Let's talk a little bit about the take there. People seem to have a pretty clear idea on that.

Travis Murphy:
Right. The proposal that is out there would actually prohibit teachers in the state universities and publish schools from voicing opinions when it comes to political, social and cultural issues. Which is pretty strong language. And I think that was reflected. People were a little hesitant to support something that went that far, to what a lot of people would argue is impeding free speech.

Bruce Merrill:
On the other hand, 37% would. Perhaps we should be a little bit more concerned.

Cary Pfeffer:
Bruce Merrill, Travis Murphy, thank you both very much for being here. I appreciate your thoughts and your insights.

Cary Pfeffer:
During the 1994 Rwandan genocide, Paul Rusesabagina used his influence and connections to save the lives of more than 12-hundred people. His story was the inspiration for the film "Hotel Rwanda". Now, he lectures about his experience and recently was invited to our state by Northern Arizona university's martin-Springer institute. Rusesabagina hopes to educate people about the scope of the conflict and we will talk more about that in a moment. First, Merry Lucero tells us how the Rwandan hero has become something he never planned to be, a humanitarian.

Merry Lucero:
You may not remember his name, but you've probably heard his story.

Announcer:
Get your people on the bus. I will take care of the others.

Merry Lucero:
Paul Rusesabagina was featured in the 2004 film "Hotel Rwanda." his character played by actor Don Cheadle. Rusesabagina saved 1260 people from being slaughtered in the 1994 Rwandan genocide by letting them take refuge in the hotel where he was manager.

Paul Rusesabagina:
Most of the parts for the movie, a true story. It is more or less like a documentary.

Merry Lucero:
The Rwandan hero was recently in Arizona at Coconino high school in flagstaff to speak with students about his experience.

Paul Rusesabagina:
I love to talk, to convey my message to young people. These students are the ones who are tomorrow's leaders. They are the ones who will be dealing with these issues. They need to know them. They need to know. They need to learn. And if we don't tell them they will never know.

Merry Lucero:
Rusesabagina tells the students about his most difficult decision, to leave his wife and children and face death to stay and save the refugees.

Paul Rusesabagina:
When I decided to send my wife and remain behind, my wife and children and remain behind, that was a true story. At the given time, my friends came to me and told me that I should go, these people [indiscernible] "they are going to kill you". Come with us." I told them my friends, "I cannot come".

Merry Lucero:
But Rusesabagina's family was sent back to the hotel. He and his wife gathered their own children together with other fans that had fled the massacre.

Paul Rusesabagina:
We told our children that as parents we might be killed today or tomorrow. If we happened to, the elder one among you, our children, will take care of the rest of all the children altogether as brothers and sisters. I remember that day in tears. We shook hands, all our new brothers and sisters. We remained. My wife, children and myself. That day we remained. We didn't go.

Merry Lucero:
Eventually Rusesabagina and his family escaped out of the hotel through the violent, deadly streets of Rwanda. The film "Hotel Rwanda" stayed true to his experience.

Paul Rusesabagina:
So the audience, for you and many others, to see what was going on inside the sanctuary, a place that was supposed to be a sanctuary. And then you think about what was happening outside. This is hotel Rwanda.

Merry Lucero:
The students who hear him in person are moved beyond what they learned from the film.

Hattie Peterson:
It really opens your eyes. The movie itself is like -- you watch it and you're blown away by it. But seeing him and hearing him talk about his experiences and the way he changed through it. It makes you want to do something or change the world type of thing. But I mean, it does. It just makes you want to do something for other people.

Thomas Moore:
Like when you really think about it, if you were put in the situation of 400 people in your hands, and you could have the potential of handing their lives over to save yourself and your family. But you decided to put yourself on the line and at risk every day. It's pretty amazing.

Merry Lucero:
The students were also amazed to learn that violence continues in Rwanda.

Paul Rusesabagina:
Many people have been disappearing. The killing systems have changed. They are no more killing people and exposing dead bodies. They kill them [indiscernible] some of them just get lost completely for life. This is a new style of frustrating people. Humanitarians, have been dismissed from the country, kicked ought.

Merry Lucero:
Rusesabagina's role continues to travel the world, raising awareness of what happened in his country so the international community can help others who suffer now.

Cary Pfeffer:
As you saw, Rusesabagina's immediate family survived the genocide. However, his brother, mother-in-law, father-in-law, sister-in-law and six nieces and nephews died. Here now to bring us perspective on the Rwanda genocide and the current state of conflict is Dr. Femi Babarinde, a professor at the thunderbird school of rule and management. Professor thanks for being here.

Femi Babarinde:
Thanks for having me.

Cary Pfeffer:
People who saw the film or just have been introduced to this conflict through Merry's story might not understand some of that history there. Talk a little bit about -- a little bit about that background so that people understand more how this very, very deadly, very bloody conflict could take place within the confines of a country.

Femi Babarinde:
Yeah. It is a country that has about 9 million people. You have three major ethnic groups there. Actually two major ethnic groups and one minor one. One of the major ethnic groups is the Hutus. Then you have the Tutsi and the -- it was very small group. About 1% of the population.

Cary Pfeffer:
So you have these two major groups that have gone head to head.

Femi Babarinde:
They have gone head to head. But it is known that Hutus constitute about 85% of the population. So they really dominate in terms of sheer numbers. The context of this crisis goes back to the pre-independent period when the Tutsi, the minorities, dominated the political scene, economic scene and so forth. So you're talking about years of subjugation.

Cary Pfeffer:
And that's portrayed in the movie. The anger.

Exactly. What happened was in 1994 -- in 1990 a group of Tutsis got together and formed what's known as the Rwanda -- these were people who were exiled. And what they wanted to do was to come back to Rwanda and challenge the government what they believed to be the government's attitude, which was Tutsis in exile and others in exile. So they fell felt they were completely ignored by the Hutu-led government. So they launched an offensive in 1990. And that translated into civil war.

Cary Pfeffer:
Right.

Femi Babarinde:
Now, that war raged on for about two years and there was ceasefire in 1992. And that ceasefire was broken from time to time. But it was generally held up. In 1994, in April, something terrible happened. When the plane that was carrying the then president and the Presidential Burundi was shot down. To date we don't know who actually did it.

Cary Pfeffer:
Right. And that sort of kicks off this chaotic scene that we see portrayed in the movie. Talk about the atmosphere now. Because sometimes we hope that a major movie like this will raise the profile of the situation and internationally we hope that there'll be change and all that sort of thing. Talk about the atmosphere within the country now.

Femi Babarinde:
Yes. The atmosphere is generally cordial. Still tense. We should make no mistake about it. They've been working on reconciliation for some time now. And there are different things that the president -- has been doing in trying to bring about reconciliation and the unity in the country. I'll speak to that in a moment. But something that he had to do first and foremost was to come to terms with what happened. From what happened in South Africa, even though there was apartheid when President Mandela and his government launched a truth and reconciliation commission, they tried to borrow from that experience and tried to bring about reconciliation. For reconciliation to take place they need to come to terms with what happened. And this is actually very consistent, in consonance with traditional African values. You have to look at the past. It's like a cleansing. In order to be able to tread carefully into the future. So they launched a series of initiatives in the country. One, they had to classify people who were implicated in this dastardly act into three groups primarily. The ring leaders were sent to -- those who were the so-called leaders, they were sent to a tribunal, an international tribunal in Tanzania for trial. Then others who were involved in things like the lesser crimes and so were tried by the judiciary system in the Rwanda government. Then the next group were people who were accused of aiding and abetting. Those people were then tried by traditional courts of Rwanda known as the Gachacha. This means like "on the grass" people would sit down.

Cary Pfeffer:
Locally, right. We can hope for a better future for the country. Professor,
I appreciate your being here and providing some insight. Thank you very much.

Femi Babarinde:
You bet.

Cary Pfeffer:
To see video of this and other horizon segments via the internet please go to our website, azpbs.org, and click on Horizon. You can also get transcripts and find out about upcoming topics.

Merry Lucero:
As we wrap up February and honor Black History Month, we bring you a special edition of Horizon. We introduce you to four African-Americans who played significant roles in Arizona's history. Cloves Campbell, Elizabeth Hudson Smith, Calvin Goode and Lincoln Ragsdale. That's Wednesday at 7:00 p.m. on Horizon.

Cary Pfeffer:
Thanks very much for watching. Have a good night.