Heavy precipitation from El Niño to come in 2024

Heavy precipitation due to El Niño could help maintain Arizona’s water levels in 2024. The weather pattern that typically results in higher-than-normal precipitation levels across the Southwest is key for keeping water levels steady this year. We spoke with Randy Cerveny, ASU Climatologist, for details.

From the start of this winter, Arizona will be experiencing an El Niño until the end of June.

“It’s a fairly strong one right now,” Cerveny said. “It’s going to be going through the rest of winter. We’re not anticipating it to weaken until maybe June of this year.”

Based on the Monthly Precipitation Outlook, Arizona will receive above-normal levels of rain throughout January and into March. This rainfall is caused by warm sea temperatures in the Pacific which creates clouds, and those clouds can travel to the state and cause rain.

Along with the storms rolling in, Arizona will also be experiencing colder temperatures during the El Niño period, which is also the cause of the recent cold temperatures.

“That’s what we call a polar vortex,” Cerveny said. “It is the incursion of really cold air coming from Canada, and that cold air, when coupled with dry air in the Phoenix metropolitan area, allows the temperatures at night to become really cold.”

Typically, these cold periods do not last very long. However, with it being an El Niño period, Phoenix will see more cold mornings and nights.