How do Republican candidates for governor stack up against Governor Napolitano? And how do Arizonans feel about immigration and same-sex marriage propositions? Get the answers in the latest Cronkite-Eight Poll, with analysis from poll director Dr. Bruce Merrill and his assistant Tara Blanc.
Michael Grant:
Tonight on "Horizon" our latest Cronkite-Eight Poll shows lots of support for immigration ballot measures, but not so much support for one dealing with same-sex marriage. We reveal the results tonight.
Michael Grant:
Plus, how is arts education taught, funded and standardized in Arizona's public school classrooms? We continue our series on education with a focus on arts education. Those stories, next on "Horizon."
Announcer:
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Michael Grant:
Good evening, I'm Michael Grant. Welcome to "Horizon." first up, in the news Warren Jeffs is in custody tonight. The leader of the fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints was captured late last night outside of Las Vegas. Jeffs has been on the FBI's most-wanted list, and has been on the run for more than a year. Jeffs reportedly has dozens of wives and as many as 60 children. His church is based in Colorado City, Arizona and Hildale, Utah.
Michael Grant:
A same-sex marriage initiative is not getting a majority of support, but there's a lot more support for anti-illegal immigration measures, and Senator Jon Kyl maintains his lead over Jim Pederson. Those are some of the results of the latest Cronkite eight poll. The poll was conducted by KAET 8 TV and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at A.S.U. August 24th through the 27th. 846 Arizona registered voters were surveyed and the poll has a margin of error of 3.3%. Here are the results:
Mike Sauceda:
Latest Cronkite 8 polls show voters not supporting proposition 107 that would be about same-sex marriage. 38 for; 51 against. However voters are throwing support behind anti-illegal immigration propositions 76 would vote for which prohibits bail for illegal aliens. 16% supports. 27% would not vote for it. Proposition 102 would prevent punitive damages for illegal aliens. 61% supports it. 26% did not. Proposition 300 prohibits illegal aliens from taking state-funded adult educated classes. 50% would vote for it, 35% would not. U.S. Republican Senator Jon Kyl maintains lead over the Jim Pedersen. He had 46% and 36% for Pedersen. Governor Janet Napolitano has the republican nomination and beat with 62% to 27% against Don Goldwater and leads Mike Harris by 62 to 23 and Gary Tupper 62-20%.
Michael Grant:
Here to discuss the Cronkite-Right poll is its Director, Dr. Bruce Merrill and his Assistant, Tara Blanc. You guys are having a hot summer? [Laughter] let's talk about poll results. Amazing number of calls made. Congratulations to the volunteers, to the students. I understand we enlisted some students.
Bruce Merrill:
We didn't enlist them. We forced them. We had 850 interviews which is good as we get 850 interviews. We have a plus or minus of 3%.
Michael Grant:
Let's start with protect Arizona same sex marriage initiative 38% support and 51% against. I'm surprised by that.
Bruce Merrill:
I'm surprised it's trailing as much as it is. Remember we have said before regardless of what the court said one issue of preserving and protecting the marriage. In the minds of public of Arizona there are two issues whether or not marriage should be between one man and one woman. I can tell you based on research two-thirds of people in Arizona support that. On the other hand, there's a second part that says the partners of the unmarried people would be denied domestic benefits from governmental entities. People don't see that as fair. What's dragging this down is on one hand people do not want gay marriage in Arizona but think it's unfair to deny them benefits.
Michael Grant:
Bruce, the actual words of the proposition don't say that and they say more cryptically and furthermore the state will take no action in a pseudokind of way to recognize marriage. We went on. The supporters said we intend to not only ban same-section marriage and civil unions and domestic partner benefits. We mentioned that. A person shows up at the polls, though and doesn't see the phrasing on the actual ballot. Question, can that impact the result?
Bruce Merrill:
It can a little bit. What we know is if people are confused, they tend to vote no. If anything that would reinforce vote no on that particular proposition.
Michael Grant:
Tara, I seem to recall an earlier poll.
Tara Blanc:
Last fall.
Michael Grant:
We actually stepped through the three questions; didn't it decline? It was two-thirds support for same-sex marriage and declined.
Tara Blanc:
We split is in two questions. First whether voters would support ban on same-section marriage, constitutional amendment. I believe the response rate was 63% to 65% in favor. When we asked about the denial of benefits to domestic partners it dropped--
Michael Grant:
Maybe below 50%.
Tara Blanc:
I think it did as low as the 30s and as high as the 40s for support.
Michael Grant:
I want to say civil unions was 50/50 and a tiered response.
Tara Blanc:
One of things to consider from what I understand the denial of benefits to unmarried partners extends to any set of unmarried partners whether a same-sex couple and a heterosexual couple. I suspect that's what's going on here people don't support that part of it. So if they understand what it really means, they won't support the whole thing.
Michael Grant:
We also polled on a series of measures that will be on the ballot on immigration fairly consistent routes, Bruce.
Bruce Merrill:
No question, mike. Further there are four initiatives on the ballot this time that relate to cracking down on illegal immigration. On all of them there was a strong support. These are things like if an illegal immigrant gets a judgment in court that they would not be able to capitalize on that.
Michael Grant:
Punitive damages. Couldn't receive it. Would be prohibited.
Bruce Merrill:
Yes, exactly. And whether or not you should be able to hold an illegal immigrant that's been charged in jail. It's just a continuation of the feeling that people have in Arizona that it's time to crack down. It's going to be the number 1 issue in Arizona elections this year and is going to have an effect on the elections.
Michael Grant:
Tara, the result of making English the official language was 67 to 27. All of them--well three of them prohibiting bail for illegals committing a series of crimes and English official language and ban receiving punitive damages were all in the 70s and 60s approval range.
Tara Blanc:
Uh-huh.
Michael Grant:
Now, when we ask the question about proposition 300, which would bar illegal aliens from taking adult education courses and not allowing them to pay instate tuition, it dropped down to 35%.
Tara Blanc:
That was interesting. We suspected that one of things going on there is that people look at that and part of what would be banned would be the illegals taking English classes. Well, if we are insisting that English-only is going to be the language, we conduct government and business in and yet deny people the opportunity to learn English. It makes sense that would have lower support than some of the other propositions. I found it interesting the one about classes and tuition was low and one about denying bail was so high. I believe in a lot of people's minds they associate illegal immigrants with crime, that's why that one was higher than some of the other ones. It's interesting when you think people are more thoughtful about some of the propositions than at first glance.
Michael Grant:
It's also possible they are tying to capture and release problem. They are two separate issues. I could see someone tying those two issues. Let's go to the Kyl, Pedersen race. Our polling has been consistent with Jon Kyl with 10 to 4 point lead.
Bruce Merrill:
That's about right. When Pedersen started his television early in the summer, he was 14 percentage points.
Tara Blanc:
He was up 11 in April and 14 in June.
Bruce Merrill:
He dropped to 10. Around 10%. Basically what we found, mike, in this poll is the major reason is that Kyl is enjoying a significant crossover factor advantage. All that means is that at this point 52% of the--22% of the democrats are supporting Jon Kyl where only 11% of the republicans are supporting Pedersen. When you live in a state that's heavily republican, any democratic candidate has to hold on to their basis of support and have to get a majority of the independents or some moderate republicans or they have no chance to win. What this means for Pedersen is he has got to reenergize and connect with the basic support in Arizona to have a chance to win.
Michael Grant:
He certainly has reenergized and been back on television more than a month and put money in the campaign. On a crossover issue, Bruce, is there something in particular that he can do to both hold the democrat base and, for that matter, certainly attract independents, maybe attract a few more republicans?
Bruce Merrill:
It's going to be hard for him because when we look at the effects of the illegal immigration bill, they tend to favor Kyl. I think unfortunately what you will see in this campaign is that pedestriander son has to increasing use attack ads against Kyl. He has to. He has to call attention to his campaign and knock support away and interest in Kyl or he'll have a difficult time winning.
Michael Grant:
Tara, we did matchups against all four republicans--Governor Janet Napolitano against all four of them the verdict is?
Tara Blanc:
She'll be hard to beat no matter who runs against her.
Bruce Merrill:
A no-brainer.
Michael Grant:
Remarkably consistent holds 62% with four possible opponents.
Tara Blanc:
Range from 20 to 27% depending on which candidate and undecided fluctuated a little bit. She's very much the front runner and the republicans are at a disadvantage regardless of what happens. The primary is late in the session, so to speak, there's only going to be a month and a half between the primary and general election, that plus the constraints of the election funds and the time and frankly lot of republicans expect for Don Goldletter lack of name recognition will put primary against Governor Janet Napolitano. She's popular and enjoys strong support. It's an uphill battle.
Michael Grant:
So far at least, Bruce, I don't think the four republican candidates have found anything against Governor Napolitano?
Bruce Merrill:
They will try to paint her as way too liberal on the immigration issues. That's about the only thing that they can try to do. That's particularly important because right now about 44% of the republicans are supporting or say they are supporting the governor now. Now party will bring that closer together as the election progresses but it will be very difficult as Tara suggests for a republican to win this year.
Michael Grant:
Bruce Merrill, thank you for being here. Tara Blanc, good to see you again.
Tara Blanc:
Thank you and thanks to volunteers.
Michael Grant:
Tonight we continue our Arizona education update series with a look at arts education. Studies show that students who study the arts score higher on academic tests than students who are not exposed to the arts. Many education and civic leaders recognize that arts are a means to help students think, feel and understand the world in unique ways, distinct from other academic disciplines. But do all public school students have equal access to the arts? And how much focus and funding should schools and districts place on arts education in the face of standardized testing requirements? In a moment, we will talk about that. First, Merry Lucero looks at Arizona's academic standards in the arts.
Merry Lucero:
Music, visual arts, theater and dance are outlined in the arts standards which is part of Arizona Department of Education revised academic k-12 standards. It supports students having direct contact with professional artist and performers through partnerships with state and local resources. Some are museums, symphonies, artists in residents and theater companies and art centers and dance companies. It's outlined on the department of education website. Services and support and art resource for the teachers, parents and students are linked to the site. The federal no child left behind act lists the arts as part of the core curriculum. Some have had to cut in order to emphasize the reading, writing and math for required standardized tests. Schools have had to develop integrative approaches to put it in. Schools form arts education curriculum within the limits and need of individual districts. The arts standard state that success comes when all students have equal access to the arts.
Michael Grant:
Here now to talk about arts education and the funding issues involved in it are Lynn Tuttle and Darcy Olsen, President of the Goldwater institute. Lynn, when were the current state-of-the-art standards developed?
Lynn Tuttle:
They were passed by the state board of education on June 26th of this year. We did a two-year process. A planning process involving the major state holders, the dance and theater teachers, music and arts and charter schools and administers and teachers and university faculty and involved them in the rigorous review process of the standards adopted in 1997 and we used online technology and received more than 730 written responses representing educators 14 out of Arizona's 15 counties.
Michael Grant:
At a high level can you give us a feel what standards are? Should I be able to play the piano?
Lynn Tuttle:
It's not that specific about the instrument that you use for art making. It says students should have exposure to art discipline music, dance, theater and visual arts by the time they get to 8th grade and you should have ability to excel and experiment in one art form by the time you graduate from high school.
Michael Grant:
The fact that I don't sing very well, I can be in big trouble.
Lynn Tuttle
: I think you're probably okay. [laughter]
Michael Grant:
Darcy, what does the Goldwater institute offer for the schools?
Darcy Olsen:
Here it is. They have the art and basic and reading and writing and math. They don't have the efficiencies they used to have. I think we are in agreement that the arts are important and most parents think they are important. It's a false competition between is it arts or the basics? We know this and look to the charter schools where the dichotomy doesn't exist. The best art school in the Tucson school.
Lynn Tuttle:
Flagstaff.
Darcy Olsen:
Right the Arizona school city arts in phoenix and have top test scores and they are doing all this for 2,000 less per pupil and traditional public schools.
Michael Grant:
Lynn, how mandatory are the standards that you talked about? Does a school district for a school interest to allocate some amount of resource to those? Are these for directory kind of the guidelines?
Lynn Tuttle:
Interesting question. State statute or state law is fairly vague on all the academic areas including reading, writing and math. They state musical and visual arts must be taught but not by whom and how often. In high school there is a graduation requirement they have one unit of fine arts in order to graduate in the Arizona high school. At the statute level they come in and say that might be baseline. Here's what we would like them to do. The Arizona department of education currently has a letter that goes out to superintendents and charter holders asking them to sign and say we do educate our students according to state standard for reading, language arts and math and science. With them on board they will add the arts to the list. We'll ask superintendents and charter holders to sign off saying, yes, we teach to the state standards according.
Michael Grant:
It sounds loosey-goosey.
Lynn Tuttle:
It's loosely goosey that Arizona believes in local control, that school boards and charter boards have an opportunity to determine what the curriculum looks like. What I see as part of my role in the department of education is to show best practices of districts that took the standards, adopted them and are using them well and making them a priority in the curriculum. One great example is Washington elementary school district. Two years ago the school board asked for the--who was offering it? Which school is doing it the best?
Michael Grant:
Darcy, one thing that occurs to me. In an era where we are focused on teacher accountability and school accountability and aims testing gets publicity that it is understandable that school districts could say, listen, I'll teach reading and writing and math, to the extent I can jam in something on arts, fine. Those are my main missions.
Darcy Olsen:
Absolutely. It's perfectly normal for parents to say focus on reading and writing and math. Fourth graders reach the 4th grade without being able to read what you have in front of you there. We have failures and normal for parents to say get the focus on reading, writing and math. The dichotomy does not have to exist and charter schools highlight that where they are good at the academics and high test scores and integrating art curriculum. Parents want their children well rounded. In the public schools systems, they are not able to get them. In flagstaff and Tucson and central phoenix there are a lot of schools that do both and more with less.
Michael Grant:
Are we sending mixed messages? By "we" I mean the society generally. I recall in the 80s and 90s a lot of discussion about we are losing ground to Japan and European schools and don't have focus on science and math and look at the curriculum and see what's justifiable and not what's not. Sometimes there was a feeling that we could get rid of school choir and the band and I don't know the other arts classes and perhaps even Shakespeare, god forbid. Are we sending that mixed set of signals?
Lynn Tuttle:
I think again we set up this false dichotomy. It's either/or. It's either we focus on reading, math and writing or the arts. You can do them together. You can do them separate discipline in the school day and time to do that and models in Arizona to show you how to do it and integrate across the arts there. There's a fabulous program in the Tucson called "opening minds through the arts" that did that and had significant gains in the test scores and all the students and English language learners. It's a Terra Nova Scores.
Michael Grant:
Out of time, Darcy running charters to see they are doing better than we are?
Darcy Olsen:
They can look to charters what we need to do is make sure we have a competition and parents in charge of making decisions. When the parents choose, they can have the integrated curriculum out of money; get them out of the hands of bureaucrat and in the hands of the parents.
Michael Grant:
Darcy Olsen, Goldwater Institute thank you very much for coming. Lynn Tuttle, of Arizona Department of Education, thanks to you as well.
Merry Lucero:
Phoenix officers may be required to enforce federal immigration laws through a measure placed on the November ballot. We'll discuss the pros and cons on the measure and continue the series on the state education in Arizona and examine the policy and economics of the teachers in the valley. That's Wednesday at 7:00 on "Horizon".
Michael Grant:
And directly following horizon stay tuned for "Arizona Stories." tonight the U.S.S. Arizona, the 1964 civil rights movement, the mission of San Carlos, and the Hispanic fly boys. "Arizona stories" of our unique people, places and history airs every Tuesday at 7:30 p.m.
Michael Grant:
Thank you very much for joining us on this Tuesday evening. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.
Bruce Merrill:Director, Cronkite-Eight Poll;Tara Blanc:Assistant Director, Cronkite-Eight Poll;