Election Analysis

Oct. 31, 2006

Transcript:

Michael Grant:
Tonight on Horizon, the pundits are saying it's going to be an interesting mid term election with the possibility of both house and senate switching majorities. Plus just a week out, are you ready for the procedural part of the voting? Do you need to have a driver's license to vote? We have answers from election officials, next on Horizon.

Announcer:
Horizon made possible by contributions from the friends of 8, members of your Arizona PBS Station. Thank you.

Michael Grant:
Good evening. Welcome to Horizon. I'm Michael Grant. We're only a week out from Election Day and the U.S. senate race may be tightening between G.O.P Incumbent Jon Kyl and Democratic Contender Jim Pederson. A seat once considered safe for Republican J.D. Hayworth could be in jeopardy of falling to Democratic challenger Harry Mitchell. Voters choosing between Republican incumbent Rick Renzi and Democrat Ellen Simon. Issues like immigration, Iraq and abortion are going to drive voter's decisions next Tuesday. Here to talk about some of the more contentious races this Halloween is Capital Media Services Howie Fisher. It's Halloween.

Howard Fischer:
Well --

Michael Grant:
What about your costume?

Howard Fischer:
I figured if you were going to come as a lawyer I would come as a mild-mannered reporter, but it's concealing my true identity.

Michael Grant:
That's incredible. Is that why you wanted to borrow my reading glasses?

Howard Fischer:
I haven't found the phone booth in years. Do you realize how hard it is to change at a cell phone?

Michael Grant:
Do you realize how tough it is to change horses in midstream? Are we going to change many horses? What's your feel? We were just talking. There's something going on, but it's hard to figure how much laps over to Arizona.

Howard Fischer:
We see the national polls. We even see it in Arizona. A lot of people want congress to change hands, but we always see that disconnect. They are all thieves and buffs. What do you think of your own congressman? He's not such a bad guy. He's bringing home the bacon, he represents my viewpoints. That becomes the question here in several districts. The closest is J.D. Hayworth versus Harry Mitchell. The guy has a statue of himself in Tempe. Question is can J.D. make that up in the Scottsdale voters? Does his tie to Abramoff affect it? What about the war? Where does this fit in? Clearly Harry is hammering away at that. That is going to be the closest where you're trying to unseat an incumbent.

Michael Grant:
Put polls aside, because I think sometimes they are overrated. One barometer you can use in races is how hard are they going at each other, and in particular how hard is the incumbent going at the other guy, because that sometimes indicates the feeling of discomfort that is occurring. What complicates that analysis with J.D. Hayworth is his and his organization's natural combativeness. But they definitely have been hammering on each other.

Howard Fischer:
And clearly. You go to any of the commercial stations, please, not yet, and you cannot help but run into ad after ad after ad. I don't know when anyone gets to sell the rice crispies any more. The fact that J.D. has taken up so much air time, attacking Harry, that little old lady shaking her head saying, that's dirty Harry, things like that. But there are a series of high profile attack ads against Ellen Simon because she was head of the ACLU, defending a lot of unpopular groups, obviously he's pointing out the Man Boy Love Association. We see it in terms of Kyl to attack Jim Pederson, his bankruptcies and everything else. Clearly all the incumbents in the state are feeling some heat even in terms of John Shadegg going on the air over virtually nonexistent opposition because they are all afraid they are going to be turned out.

Michael Grant:
Let me cycle back to the Kyl/Pederson race. Giuliani in town for Kyl. Clinton showing newspaper Tucson for Pederson, what, couple days from now?

Howard Fischer:
Clinton will be in Tucson on Thursday for a rally, probably going to talk to the press. Which shows you that as much as the Republican Party wants to demonize Clinton, he did win the state once, and there's still a lot of popularity here. I think there may be a certain number of people who believe compared to what we have now was this so bad. Obviously, Clinton has been on the offense in terms of his role prior to 9/11, prior to Bush taking office about how he went after the terrorists. He went after Bin Laden, et cetera. So clearly, Pederson believes that while he's not going to raise money from this that clearly it will raise his visibility and perhaps energize the base. Pederson needs the democrats to turn out. Democrats as a whole are not high voters.

Michael Grant:
It's interesting, in our poll before last we showed Kyl doing very well in Pima County, which as you know is just a death knell for democrats in this state. It could be an effort to sure things up in what obviously is one of the state's predominant democratic strong holds.

Howard Fischer: Kyl takes Maricopa County, Yavapai County, Mohave County. Pinal is more of a toss-up because we have a much more republican base moving in there. Pima is what Pederson needs to win and win big. Same that happen Napolitano against Salmon. He needs Pima, Santa Cruz, maybe Graham and Gila and possibly Greenlee to make up for that. This is going to turn on turnout. That gets into evergreen else on the ballot. How do the propositions affect it? Does proposition 107 bring out republicans against gay marriage versus prop 202 where democrats who believe in a higher minimum wage? You'll see a lot of last-minute get out the vote stuff. My phone at home hasn't stopped ringing off the hook of recorded calls, vote for me, vote for this issue. Obviously, there's a lot of last-minute tactics.

Michael Grant:
The turnout point cycles back to something we talked about earlier. Many people have been talking about, okay, the conservative base sitting on its hands again, we'll see if that plays out or not, but even if it were to play out nationally, it's one of the difficulties we have sometimes here in Arizona because what a national trend is doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be an Arizona trend. Sometimes it is.

Howard Fischer:
Clearly while many of the religious conservatives are disenchanted with Bush, they don't think he's kept his promises, because you have Munsil here, those are his people, that 25%, those are his people. That's his base. He needs to build on that somewhat. I don't know if you can get from 25% solid base up to 51% or maybe 49 what with Barry Hess in the race. I think that's a real difficult position. Do the conservatives come out for proposition 107? I think a good number do, but there are also conservatives who say government shouldn't be involved in saying to local government or universities you shouldn't be denying benefits to domestic partners. That's hard to tell.

Michael Grant:
He has agreed to a joint appearance with Ellen Simon in Coolidge?

Howard Fischer:
On Thursday. What's interesting about this, it's been hard to get the two together. Obviously Ellen Simon, the challenger, wants the exposure. Renzi figures why should I give her that? Clearly, the publicity about the investigation about some of his land dealings has softened some of his numbers and he believes he needs to shore up his base. My guess is Ellen Simon will bring up the investigation, he will say it's all politically motivated. They obviously have to get back to what has each done for the district.

Michael Grant:
That certainly has been two of the primary reads in that district. Democratic national committee has been misestimating that district almost from the very moment it was born several years ago, and a lot of people feel that, yeah, there are democrats there, but they aren't the kind that votes for Ellen Simon, and number 2, Renzi has done a good job of constituent service, relationships with the Navajo tribes, basically a lot of bridge-building inside that district. It will be interesting to watch the result.

Howard Fischer:
Although one of the things he did in the last two weeks he apparently insulted the president of the Navajo nation, who had not endorsed him and said something about the guy's criminal record. That caused the president to issue a release. How does that trickle down? Hard to say.

Michael Grant:
Before we get out of here, props, the props -- a lot of ads going on late. I always wonder with some of the proposition campaigns if they understand that our voting started about three weeks ago, but there have been a number ramping up their activities in the past week or so.

Howard Fischer: They have a lot of money to burn. Obviously the big one is prop 206 being sponsored for all intents and purposes by the R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company. For a state with 2.5 registered voters, they believe they can get their passed in 201, the more comprehensive measure, to fail. We're going to see a lot of last-minute money on proposition 207, the eminent domain measure. I heard a radio ad this morning with a bulldozer; we're taking your home to give it to a shopping center developer. That's already illegal in Arizona. They are not talking about the rest of it dealing with just compensation for land use regulations. We'll see a lot of money at the last minute on proposition 202, the minimum wage issue. The business community realizes this is likely to pass, so they are not attacking the money issue because they realize most people support it. They say this will create a system where everyone will be exposed to strangers. Not exactly true, but it seems to work.

Michael Grant:
Howie Fisher, I guess time will tell precisely seven days or so.

Howard Fischer:
Exactly.

Michael Grant:
Thank you for joining us.

Michael Grant:
A week from today people who haven't already voted by mail are going to be going to the polls to cast their ballots in Maricopa County 470,000 out of 1.5 million registered voters have requested early ballots. Statewide the number near 700,000. In Maricopa County 52% of the early ballots requested were by republicans, 32% by democrats, 16% by independents. Besides early voting, there are also new I.D. requirements this election. A new law requires a hand count. We will discuss those voting issues and more with Maricopa County elections officials. First more on the I.D. requirements.

Mike Sauceda:
This will be the first general election with a voter I.D. requirements of proposition 200 will be in effect. The voter I.D. and proof of citizenship to register to vote were temporarily put on hold by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, but after an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court the stay was lifted and the I.D. requirements are back on. Voters can present a valid Arizona driver's license with a current address, a valid Arizona nonoperating identification license, a tribal enrollment card or other form of tribal identification. You can also use two forms of I.D. to vote if you don't have a photo I.D. those will be bank or credit union statement dated within 90 days of the election, a valid Arizona vehicle registration, an Indian census card, a property tax statement, a recorder certificate, or a valid united states federal, state or local government issued identification including a voter registration card issued by the county. Another new law in effect requires a hand count of a portion of the ballots cast and requires that more people and equipment be brought in to a polling place if lines get beyond 30 minutes long.

Michael Grant:
Here with me is Maricopa County Recorder Helen Purcell and the Elections Director Karen Osborne. Gosh, it's nice to see both of you every couple of years and every couple of months. Every couple of years. [Laughter] we had the I.D. requirements in place, Helen, for the primary. Is this same song, second verse with what the Supreme Court did about ten days ago or so?

Helen Purcell:
Pretty much with the exception of we went through that period of time where I.D. was off the plate, so we had a period of time that we were trying to train poll workers, and we trained them on the I.D. with the caveat of we don't know if this is going to northbound place for the General Election or not. We got that word about ten days ago.

Michael Grant:
Now, obviously easiest thing to do, bring your driver's license. But let's say that, you know, you haven't got one. Refresh our recollection on what you ought to do.

Helen Purcell:
You need to bring two other items with you if you don't have a picture I.D., driver's license. Bring a utility bill that's not more than 90 days old or a bank statement. You can bring any one of the mailers that we have sent out from our office, either your sample ballot with your name and address on it, voter I.D. card, which we sent everyone a new card this year. Those are two forms from our office.

Michael Grant:
Karen, if you show up and you haven't been watching this program and you don't have two forms of I.D. and you don't have your driver's license, what happens? There's still a procedure that allows you to vote?

Karen Osborne:
Absolutely. There's no reason for people to give up at that point. They can certainly vote what we call a conditional provisional ballot. Then they have five days after the general to bring that information in to us, and they are on the website. They will go home with a piece of paper that tells them the 20 places located throughout the valley that they can bring their I.D. to and still have their ballot counted.

Michael Grant:
We have got 15 places open currently where you could go to vote this week if you are so inclined.

Karen Osborne:
We do. If they go to the website, they call at 506-5111 we'll send them to a place near them. At these 15 places you can vote right now. We had over 1,000 people vote today. It gets them out of the lines at the polls.

Michael Grant:
What about the-- I gave some statistics on early ballot requests, early ballot returns. What are we seeing generally in that in comparison to 2004, 2002 in terms of requests, returns, et cetera?

Helen Purcell:
This seems to be pretty much what we have seen before, Michael. The thing is that we kept hearing that there was more -- that the democrats were more energized and we anticipated there would be more, but the percentages look like the same as what they have been in past elections, so we're not seeing that much of a trend. You have your as you said your 52% republican and 32, 33% democrat. The returns seem to be coming in the same fashion.

Michael Grant:
Okay. Karen, we were talking about this before the program and reached no conclusion, so I thought we could do it again on the air. [Laughter]

Karen Osborne:
So we can reach a conclusion?

Michael Grant:
Probably not. No, I was musing out loud, wondering if people were maybe getting a little more cautious. I think both of you also raised the point about this is a really long ballot. If you took five races a day you'd finish sometime in December.

Karen Osborne:
Yes.

Michael Grant:
Which could slow it down?

Karen Osborne:
That's what we think is probably most of the people we talked to have all of it done except for one or two propositions they haven't made their minds up on yet, but it's a very long ballot, 19 questions. If you're in Mesa you have four additional questions on bonds. So there are 95 selection that you need to make on that ballot. It takes a long time. Its two full pages. We think that people are just -- they just haven't quite got it back in the envelope. We hope we can encourage them to do that. It's very important.

Michael Grant:
Incidentally, when is the last time you can drop off-- the ballot has to get there by Monday, is it?

Karen Osborne:
By Tuesday at 7:00. If they -- they have to gauge how long it's going to take the post office to get it to us, but if they are sitting there and it's too late to mail it, they can put it in the envelope, take it to any polling place in Maricopa County, go in front of the line and put it in a special box for early ballots. They do not have to wait in line.

Michael Grant:
Okay. Helen, if you're old fashioned like I am and you just love showing up there and playing with the pens and stuff like that, some tips because of the length of this ballot. There's likely to be long lines, right?

Helen Purcell:
We think there will be. No matter what we can do to have enough additional people, which we have tried to get, and that's not the easiest thing in the world, but it's going to take you a while. If you will take your sample ballot and make your selections, take that with you to the polling place so you're already prepared, it's still probably going to take you ten, 15 minutes to vote that ballot. If you think about the number of people in your polling place, it's going to be a while. If you go at one of the prime times that everybody likes to go, the drive-in time in the morning, drive-out time at night, you're going to have lines.

Michael Grant:
If I filled out my sample ballot and brought it with me, do you guys have a billboard size thing where I could post it so I could look at it? Mine is pretty big.

Helen Purcell:
We call it a bed sheet. That's what it looks like this time because you're talking about four pages of a ballot. That's very, very large.

Michael Grant:
Karen, any tips in terms of -- I assume that the mornings and evenings are the heaviest traffic times.

Karen Osborne:
Correct.

Michael Grant:
If you're looking to gauge, okay, what's my best shot?

Karen Osborne:
Best time is 10:00 a.m., 2:00 in the afternoon. Those are the slowest times we have. Drive in, people want to vote early, they will go to their polling place. At night is the longest lines we have. If they are going to the polls, if they go around the 10:00 or 2:00 hour they will have a lot easier time.

Michael Grant:
Let's get to the counting process. I know a question that is always asked me and I never can remember the answer to it, do the early ballots that get turned in, are they being counted -- before we close the polls? I believe the answer is yes.

Karen Osborne:
It is. We start tomorrow counting ballots. We did our logic and accuracy test today. We completed that and everything tested perfect. We will start to count tomorrow and will continue to count right up until Election Day. What you see on election night the numbers that go up represent those ballots that we have in-house that we have processed up until that time. Doesn't take into account these couple hundred thousand ballots that will be dropped off at the polls nor the provisional ballots.

Michael Grant:
It's really that heavy, like a couple hundred thousand?

Karen Osborne:
Easily could be. That's why it's going to make it a longer time afterwards. We have several things after the election we have to do. If there is I.D. to be proven up, they have to go around to some 20-plus locations around the county to prove their I.D. or we have the provision always that we have to look at or the earliest that came in late. Both on Election Day dropped off at the polls and through the mail.

Michael Grant:
It's funny, early balloting turned Election Day into election month and turned election night into election week. Probably aren't going to know the result until Friday, Saturday.

Karen Osborne:
Probably looking at more than a week I would say this time.

Michael Grant:
Any concerns about the hand recount requirements?

Helen Purcell:
This is going to be our first time officially to have the hand recount, but we decided at the primary to do a practice run so we would have some of the procedures already in place. So we are going to -- if the republican and democratic parties supply us with the people they have to, we will be choosing those precincts at random at 11:00 on election night. Then we will start next day, next afternoon, doing the hand recount.

Michael Grant:
All right. We can get live cameras in there with you guys looking at them and going, well, I don't know, looks slightly pregnant to me and stuff like that. [Laughter] Thank you. Helen, Karen, good to see you. Good luck. To learn more about the statewide and congressional races and propositions for the November 7 election, Horizon has a special website with that information. You can also watch the clean elections candidate debates.

Mike Sauceda:
To get to the Horizon vote 2006 website, go to the 8 website at www.azpbs.org. Once there, click on vote 2006. That will take you to our Horizon vote 2006 homepage, which is loaded with features to help you as you prepare to cast your ballot. One of most prominent features. You can view past Horizon election shows. The five tabs on the upper part of the screen allow you to access all the information you need on the propositions, statewide races, the U.S. senate race, congressional races and clean elections debates. For example, if you click on the proposition tab you'll get a list of proposition that will appear on the November ballot. Click on one of the propositions such as prop 100 and you'll get links to the text of the proposed amendment, analysis by the legislative council, arguments for and against the measure, official ballot language and dates of town halls on the measure. On the Horizon vote 2006 website you can also access online videos, RSS feeds, pod casts and the Cronkite 8 Poll. Couple of other features, my ballot a printable form to remind you of your choices as you vote. You can little check out when to watch Horizon election coverage.

Merry Lucero:
Across the nation, new home prices are plunging. We will talk to a local expert about what's happening with Arizona real estate, and a big expansion at the Phoenix Art Museum. You'll get an up-close look at some of the changes. That's on Horizon Wednesday at 7:00.

Michael Grant:
Thank you for joining us on this Tuesday evening. I'm Michael Grant. Hope you have a great one. Good night.

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