Cronkite-Eight Poll

Aug. 28, 2007

Transcript:

>>Steve Goldstein:
Tonight on "Horizon.", see what Arizonians think about Sheriff Arpaio's hotline and President Bush's immigration plan in our latest Cronkite-Eight Poll. Plus, continuing our series on teaching English in Arizona. We look back at the original case in which began the English Language Learners issue in Arizona. Those stories, next on "Horizon".

>>Announcer:
"Horizon" is made possible by contributions from the "Friends of Eight", members of your Arizona PBS Station. Thank you!

>>Steve Goldstein:
Hi, and welcome to "Horizon", I'm Steve Goldstein. First up in legislative news, former Coconino County Supervisor Tom Chabin will fill the seat of State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick in House District 2. The Coconino County Board of Supervisors chose Democrat Chabin to represent the Northern Arizona district, which was vacant because Kirkpatrick resigned to run for the US House of Representatives.

>>Steve Goldstein:
John McCain seems to be slipping in his home state. And voters like Sheriff Joe Arpaio's Illegal Immigration Hotline. Those are just two of the many results in the latest Cronkite-Eight Poll. KAET "Eight TV" and the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University conducted the poll August 23rd through the 26th. We surveyed 738 registered Arizona voters, and the poll has a margin of error of 3.6%. Here are the results.

>>Mike Sauceda:
The Cronkite-Eight Poll found that 28% of Democrats would vote for Hillary Clinton, 17% for Barack Obama. 17% support Al Gore, 13% like John Edwards, and 9% support Bill Richardson. Among Republicans, 24% support John McCain. 19% were for Mitt Romney. 18% liked Rudy Giuliani, 17% would vote for Fred Thompson, 10% like Newt Gingrich. Of those that don't support John McCain, 16% says it's because of his positions on issues. 13% said he's "wishy-washy". 12% cited his stance on immigration. 9% said they didn't like him because of his age. 8% cited his stance on Iraq. In a match-up between McCain and Clinton, 48% would vote for McCain, 36% for Clinton. We matched up Rudy Giuliani and Clinton, 49% would vote for Giuliani, 37% would vote for Clinton. Fred Thompson got 43% of the vote in a match up with Hillary Clinton. She got 40% of the support. The support in almost the same in a match up between Mitt Romney and Clinton, 43% would vote for Romney, 41% for Clinton. John McCain would get 48%, compared to 34% of the vote in a head-to-head contest with Barack Obama. Obama and Romney are in a virtual tie, with 39% for Obama. 38% voting for Romney. We asked our participants about issues in the Presidential Race, 70% feel strongly enough about an issue it would impact their vote for President. 30% do not. We asked those who said they'd be impacted by an issue, which issue would change their vote. 38% said t was the War in Iraq. 26% said it was illegal immigration, with other issues registering in single digits. 53% of those we surveyed say there is not a candidate that shared their values regardless of party. 48% said there is. Of those who said there's a candidate that shared their values, 13% said Hillary Clinton, 7% said John McCain, 7% said Barack Obama. 6% cited Mitt Romney. 3% said it was Rudy Giuliani. and 3% said Fred Thompson. On another issue, we asked whether voters liked President Bush's changes to immigration policies. 69% said yes, 21% said no. Finally, we asked whether they supported Sheriff Joe Arpaio's hotline to report illegal aliens. 53% support it, 35% oppose it.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Here to discuss the Cronkite-Eight Poll is Director Dr. Bruce Merrill, and Associate Director of the Poll, Tara Blanc. Welcome to you both.

>>Bruce Merrill: Good to be here, Steve.

>>Steve Goldstein: Tara, let's start off first with John McCain. There's a statistical dead heat among Senator McCain and about three other candidates. What's this signify about his popularity in his home state?

>>Tara Blanc: Well, there's obviously no clear front-runner Arizona. We suspect a lot has to do with some of the problems he's had in his campaign up until now. When we asked people why they weren't voting for McCain, a lot of people talked about his stance on the issues. They're upset with that in general. Specifically, they're upset with his stance on the war and on immigration. And there's a lot of people who are seeing him as going back-and-forth. In fact, the words that were used were "wishy-washy". And I think this'll create some problems for him in terms of image, where people aren't seeing him as being as strong a candidate as he was eight years ago, when he had the Straight Talk Express, and seemed to be more of an independent thinker and a maverick. I think that was more attractive to people.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Bruce, is there a surprise in that, in that he's been so universally popular in Arizona. We're hearing he's less popular in Iowa and New Hampshire. I wonder -- I don't know if your poll addressed this, but is there some bitterness for McCain that doesn't spend a whole lot of time here anymore?

>>Bruce Merrill:
Well, the senators had some problems with the party establishment in the Republican Party for some time, but I think rightfully, he's spending time in New Hampshire and in Iowa and in the South, because that's where the early primaries are. I think the fact that ran so strong against Clinton and Obama shows that he's still very popular here. And my best guess is that when he comes back to the State and campaigns here, that you'll see his strength go up quite a bit.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Tara, what are some of the issues that the people you polled really care about as the election approaches?

>>Tara Blanc:
Well, the two big ones were the War in Iraq and illegal immigration. By far and away, those were the two issues that were mentioned the most. People are, um -- they're saying that's really going to affect who they vote for, and what kind of stance the various candidates take on those issues. There's also concern with healthcare, education and the economy. Those had the largest mentions. And, um, most of the concerns seem to be around -- other than the War -- seems to be around domestic issues.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Did that seem to be the same as far as Democrats or Republicans' perception? Was there a little bit of difference as far as immigration and the War?

>>Tara Blanc:
Democrats tended to be more about -- their concerns were more about the War. Republicans tended to be more concerned about illegal immigration. So there was a little bit of a split there. But overall, both sides are really -- those are the two big concerns.

>>Steve Goldstein:
First, let's go to the Democratic side. Democrats haven't won off in Arizona. Bill Clinton. Previous to that, I guess it was looking back Harry Truman, I suppose, because LBJ, this was the one state he didn't win because of Barry Goldwater.

>> Bruce Merrill:
That's right.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Who is the popular Democrat when you look at the numbers? Is Hillary far and away?

>>Bruce Merrill:
Oh yeah. she'll be very hard to beat here. Her advantage over Obama is about the same as in the national polls, 13%, 14%, 15%. Um, particularly she's strong in the party organization here, where McCain is not as strong in the Republican organization. So at least at this time, there's a clear front-runner for the Democrats, while that's not the case for the Republicans right now.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Bill Richardson showed up very tepid support in your poll. Neighboring state? A governor? Governor Napolitano likes him.

>>Bruce Merrill:
She does, but the average person doesn't know who he is. That's the problem that he has.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Any other surprises, Tara, as far as the Democratic side goes?

>>Tara Blanc:
The biggest surprise probably was when we asked people about which candidate -- if there was a candidate that was most closely aligned with their values. We asked it as an open-ended question. We didn't list candidates. Hillary Clinton got the most mentions of anyone in the State, which was fascinating for us. Again, it was -- of all the people we asked, it was only 13%. Still, the fact she was the number one mention was a real surprise.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Let's look more closely at the popularity level of Governor Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts Governor, that's identified with saving the Salt Lake City Olympics. He's considered a Westerner. How does he match up if he were to win the nomination for the Republicans. How does he fair against some of the Democrats?

>>Tara Blanc:
He doesn't fair as well as McCain or Rudy Giuliani. In fact, in the head-to-heads, McCain and Giuliani both came out ahead of Clinton and Obama. Romney and, I think we asked about Thompson as well, they were dead even with him. Again, we suspect it's because in the head-to-heads, McCain and Giuliani are seen as more moderate, and Romney as seen as more conservative.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Bruce, these days in Arizona, almost impossible, I'd imagine, to do a poll that doesn't address immigration. Sheriff Joe Arpaio's immigration hotline did pretty well. How'd you ask the question?

>>Bruce Merrill:
Well, basically, Steve, you're right. Almost any issue that we would ask the people in Arizona, if it appears to be really tough on immigration, about 2/3 of the people support it. In this particular case, we even put a sentence in that said a lot of people think that his hotline encourages racial profiling. And still, a majority of Arizonians support his hotline. But I think really more than anything, it just shows that immigration is still the issue in Arizona, and Arizonian tend to be pretty hawkish about it. They want more done to stop people from coming across the border.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Tara, briefly, give us an idea of how Arizonians, what they think of President Bush's efforts to do a Federal version of the Employer Sanctions Law that Arizona is trying?

>>Tara Blanc:
Arizona is very supportive of that. In fact, nearly 70% of the people polled said they would support the change in the law. And particularly, I think, because it goes back to the government to verify the Social Security number that creates more support for not putting the onus entirely on the business owner. There's a lot of support on it.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Tara Blanc, Dr. Bruce Merrill, thanks for your time tonight.

>>Tara Blanc: Thank you.

>>Stave Goldstein:
We continue the series tonight called "The Cost of Teaching English". We look at issues surrounding the English Language Learner Program here in our state. Tonight, we hear from a mother who continues to battle the State of Arizona over the matter. 15 years ago, Miriam Flores of Nogales sued the State for failing to help her daughter learn. Marcos Najera spoke with Mrs. Flores in Nogales.

>>Marcos Najera: ogales, Arizona has always been a town of two languages, with its people living in a region separating two countries. Many have roots in both, just like Miriam Flores. And when it comes to education, she says it gets frustrating helping lawmakers think clearly about the role language plays in learning.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
But I don't know what I could say that would make them understand.

>>Marcos Najera:
In 1992, Miriam Flores sued the State for failing to properly educate her daughter, who was a student in the Nogales Unified School District at the time. 15 years later, the "Flores v. Arizona" case still struggles to find resolution in the courts. But Mrs. Flores' daughter, who is also named Miriam, is in college now at the U of A.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
The road has been very long and hard. It's been difficult. I think it is twice as difficult when you are Latino facing language problems.

>>Marcos Najera:
When Miriam's daughter first entered school, she remembers everything being just fine. The daughter's first language was Spanish, and the school was offering classes that cater to native Spanish speakers.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
When she was little and in kindergarten, they taught her to read in Spanish. She learned her multiplication math tables in Spanish too. And even now, my daughter says that when she does Math in her head, she still multiplies in Spanish in her mind.

>>Marcos Najera:
But the easy road didn't last long.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
And then in first, second, and third grades, that's when the problems started. Because in those first few years, she started having helpers in class who are Spanish speakers. And the school divided the children. Students who spoke English at home had classes in English, and Spanish-speaking students had class in Spanish. And when she started third grade, all her classes were in English. That was when the teacher told me that my daughter talked a lot with friends during class. This seemed strange to me because Miriam was always timid and serious. I said to Miriam "You would pay money to not have to talk!" She never talked!

>>Marcos Najera:
Mrs. Flores couldn't figure out what was happening, and her daughter insisted she wasn't misbehaving.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
What the teacher thought was chatting in class, was Miriam asking her friends about what the teacher was saying and what was happening in class. One other detail that I forgot to mention was about the Spanish books used in class. The books came from Spain.

>>Marcos Najera:
Even the textbooks confused her daughter. So she had asked her mom for help.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
She'd ask me what the words meant. [laughs] I didn't know. I couldn't even help. We looked in encyclopedias for answers.

>>Marcos Najera:
Even with the confusion of the books, the language and the curriculum, the family refused to give up. Despite the daily classroom struggles that Miriam's daughter faced.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
Little by little, with a lot of work. I watched her closely because she is persistent. She was always studying. I'd have to tell her to go to bed when it got too late. She would seem hypnotized by the computer. I'd tell her not to overdo it. I would remind her that she had school the next day and she has to wake up early. But then, she'd say, "That's why sometimes I think it's twice as difficult for us." She tells me that even in College now, she has to look up some words to find the meaning.

>>Marcos Najera:
Nonetheless, Mrs. Flores is proud of her daughter, who is now an advanced nursing student at the U of A. Even though the controversy continues over the learning of one language: English, Mrs. Flores' daughter, through her university studies, now speaks four.

>>Miriam Flores [In Spanish]:
When parents get involved in their child's school, kids know they are important. And children learn school is important, and they have to reach higher.

[Railroad Horns blow]

>>Steve Goldstein:
Tim Hogan is the Executive Director of the Center for Law and the Public Interest and the Attorney for the Plaintiffs challenging the adequacy of State funding for English Language Learning programs. The defendants in the case are the Arizona State Legislature, the State of Arizona and the State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne. Earlier, we spoke with both Tim Hogan and Tom Horne about the lawsuit.

>>Tim Hogan:
In the Flores case, we claimed that the State had not taken appropriate action to help these kids overcome their language barriers because they had failed to adequately fund programs for English Language Learners and that, in fact, the funding for those programs was not only inadequate, but also arbitrary. It wasn't based on anything. It was just a number that the Legislature had picked out, and decided that they were willing to fund. Um, and we allege that was a violation of the Equal Educational Opportunities Act.

>> Tom Horne:
The important findings were made in the year 2000, where the Center for Law and the Public Interest chose the Nogales School District. I think they thought that was the worst performing district, so they chose that as the plaintiff class. There were a number of findings made in 2000 about all the bad things that were happening there. The kids weren't doing well. The buildings were dilapidated. The teachers didn't have proper training and so on.

>>Tim Hogan:
The base level funding, which represents the average amount needed to educate students generally, um, at that time, was somewhere around maybe $2,500 per student, um, the court said that the extra $150 that the Legislature was funding was inadequate, um, had caused deficiencies in the Nogales Unified School District, which is representative of the State in this lawsuit. Um, this lawsuit applies statewide, despite the State's claims to the contrary. Um, that the $150 was inadequate because it had resulted in crowded classrooms, not enough teachers, not enough materials. Kind of on and on. And also just plain arbitrary that the Legislature had taken the $450 that they knew some school districts were spending, and just kind of arbitrarily decided they were only going to fund 1/3 of that. And the court said that you have to fund these programs based on the cost of providing the programs, um, in order for it to be a rationale, non-arbitrary, um, funding system.

>>Tom Horne:
Between 2000 and 2005, Nogales had an excellent superintendent. His name was Cooper. He now works for the Department and heads up our Technical Assistance Program for schools. And between 2000 and 2005, he turned around that District so that the test scores of the kids went way up. They emphasized academics. They eliminated social promotion if the kids weren't learning. They wouldn't go onto the next grade level, which meant then you had to have intervention in the summer time, because the parents wanted them to go onto the next grade level, and the students started to do much better.

>>Tim Hogan:
The defendants in the case, the Legislature, Superintendent of Public Instruction and the State of Arizona -- three different entities -- have all claimed at various times that the lawsuit is limited to Nogales somehow. That if they take care of things in Nogales, that the lawsuit should go away. The Judge has repeatedly rejected that idea. This is a Declaratory Judgment Action, challenging the funding system Statewide. You don't have to join all 228 school districts in order for that to be -- to raise that issue. The principle that the formula, the State's finance system, doesn't provide adequate or rationale funding applies to every school district.

>>Tom Horne:
Funding may have been inadequate, but in addition to that, the leadership was terrible when Cooper was a witness on our side of the case, and he says when he got there, they were disorganized, they were not doing anything right. They didn't have the emphasis on academics. It's not only a matter of funding, it's a matter that the funding be used correctly, that you have good leadership, and you have a focus on academics and accountability. You can put funding in and get no results. We have to be sure that the funds are used properly, so we get good results.

>>Tim Hogan:
each time that, you know, the Legislature is confronted with data about what it costs, they want to -- they basically want to ignore it, and talk about other things. Um, you know, this has never been about us litigating this case trying to tell the Legislature how kids should be educated. That's -- that's a policy decision up to the Legislature. But the Law requires that they fund it. You can't hope that these programs are going to be effective without the funding to put them in place. Um, so that's -- that's really been -- really been the issue over the last seven years.

>>Tom Horne:
The funding now is over double what it was for English Language Learners. We spend about $6,000 per pupil in Arizona. The English Language Learners get an extra $350 per student that the other kids don't get. In 2000, it was $100-something. It was more than doubled. A lot of the other kinds of funding have increased substantially. Now we have No Child Left Behind with a lot of efforts by the Federal Government. The situation is very different now than it was then. And the results -- in other words, funding, is a means to an end. I think the example of the Superintendent Cooper shows sometimes, it's not a difference of funding, because there are a lot of districts that get more money than Nogales, because Nogales isn't a desegregation district like Tucson Unified and Phoenix Union, other large districts that get extra money for desegregation, Nogales doesn't get that money, and yet they're performing much better than the other districts because they have good leadership.

>>Tim Hogan:
There's no question there's been improvements in Nogales. And the way Nogales has done that is by taking money away from other programs, taking Federal funds, um, taking money generated off the local tax base, because the problem for school districts is this is a Federal law. The school district has an obligation as well. And so they've got to find the money to take care of the problem and try to provide adequate programs.

>>Tom Horne:
Some of it is Federal funds. Some of it is different kinds of State funds. Some of it is local funds. We have local taxation for education also. I think one of the legal differences we have with Tim Hogan is he thinks that the Federal law requires that all of the additional funding come out of the group. I think all the Federal Government requires that you take reasonable steps to have the kids learn English and be able to compete academically, and that funding is being provided. Where it's coming from isn't relevant to the Federal statute. All the Federal statute says is you have to take reasonable actions.

>>Tim Hogan:
You know, there are urban school districts in Phoenix and Tucson that have as significant a challenge as Nogales does, and perhaps even more so. I mean, we've got school districts in the Phoenix area where students come to school speaking -- the student population speaking 40 different languages. From Eastern Europe to Asia to Africa. Um, I mean, this isn't limited to, um, Spanish-speaking students. So, um, it's a Statewide issue. I mean, it's not limited to Nogales certainly. Um, all school districts face challenges, some to varying degrees.

>>Tom Horne:
For those students that are here, and are going to be here, it's very important we teach them English quickly and have them perform well academically. I do think the Federal Government should do more because it's Federal negligence at the border that is resulting in our having such large numbers of kids. I don't think the whole burden should be put on the Arizona taxpayers. I think one of the ironies that the trial judge came up with that's part of our appeal is that even the money that the Federal Government does give us under Title III and No Child Left Behind, we get money for English Language Learners, he says if he finds a different number than what we're spending as the appropriate money, we can't count the Federal money. The Arizona taxpayer has to bear the full burden even though the great majority of the students are here because of the negligence of the Federal Government in not guarding our border.

>>Tim Hogan:
People want to introduce Immigration issues into this. Um, but I don't see any real place for that, at least in terms of the kids we're talking about who are in Arizona right now and who are in Arizona's public schools. Um, you know, when people ask me about, well, Immigration policy and all of these kinds of things -- that's not the issue. The issue is these kids are here, and I always tell people, you let me know when they're gone, and we'll do something different, but for the time being, let's agree that while they're here -- and by the way, most all these kids are United States Citizens. I mean, this is not just a -- people tend to confuse some of these issues but, um, I tell people while they're here, let's agree that we're going to treat them the same way we treat all the kids, and have the same goals for our kids that we have for all kids in public schools, which is to get a quality education and be all you can be.

>>Tom Horne:
The judge found in his order it's apparent that the Arizona Department of Education has taken its role seriously and is endeavoring to establish appropriate standards and goals for all students in Arizona. So even the trial judge recognized we're working very hard in the Department of Education to make sure that the schools greatly improve the education they're giving to the English Language Learners so they become proficient in English quickly and can excel academically along with the rest of the students.

>>Steve Goldstein:
Tomorrow, we continue our series on the English Language Learner program with a look at Legislative solutions to the issue. On Thursday, we'll hear with people on a model being developed to teach English Language Learners. I'm Steve Goldstein, thank you for joining us for "Horizon" on this Tuesday night. We hope to see you back here tomorrow night. Good night, everybody.