super Tuesday

Feb. 5, 2008

Transcript:

Ted Simons:
Tonight on "Horizon," it's Super Tuesday, and Arizona voters hit the polls to cast their votes. John McCain is now the front-runner in the republican race, and we'll look at how the numbers are stacking up. Plus, we look at how Hispanic voters are making their voices heard, and we take a look back at Arizona's own presidential candidates of the past. Those stories next, on "Horizon."

Ted Simons:
Good evening, and welcome to the special hour-long edition of "Horizon," I'm Ted Simons. John McCain has been making his way west this afternoon and arrived in his home state this afternoon to watch the returns. He spoke with the media near Sky Harbor airport late this afternoon.

John McCain:
In the recent elections we've gotten strong support from the conservative wing of our voters, who have -- which is why we have won these primaries, including a closed republican primary in Florida by large numbers. Most conservatives are deeply concerned about the threat of radical Islamic extremism, and that's why they're supporting me. I am clearly the conservative. Governor Romney raised taxes, had a big government solution to health care that's left his state in debt by a quarter of a billion dollars. He didn't support the surge, and he wanted to set timetables for withdrawal. So it's clear that on my record I am the conservative in the race. I will unite the party, and we will all come together. These primaries are tough, everybody understands that. But as soon as I'm the nominee, we'll join the party all together and move forward for November. And polls also show that I am the stronger republican candidate against either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.

Ted Simons:
Joining us for the next hour with their expert analysis of this presidential primary, Stan Barnes, a political consultant from Copper State Consulting, and Bob Grossfeld, a political consultant from the Media Guys. Good to have you both here.
Welcome to an exciting night. Super complicated Tuesday for the democrats, and super interesting for the republicans. Here comes Mr. Mike Huckabee.

Stan Barnes:
This seems to be yet another lesson that the smart people aren't quite so smart. The people in the country are still in charge, and no one can predict the outcomes.
What's happening tonight is that Mr. Huckabee is winning certain states that maybe he shouldn't have won, by the prognostications. Even more than that, he's beating Mitt Romney in a half dozen states and in Huckabee's home state of Arkansas, in the south in Georgia and Alabama, also in Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, West Virginia, Huckabee is beating Romney, and Romney is a distant third. And Huckabee tonight is really the story for the republicans, in terms of his resurgence in today's election.

Ted Simons:
How is that story affecting John McCain?

Stan Barnes:
Well, the -- John McCain has won outright tonight, four states so far. He's won New Jersey, Connecticut, Illinois, Delaware. He's doing great where we thought he would do great. Huckabee seems to be splitting the anti-McCain vote, whatever is left of it. We saw in the clip senator John McCain is reaching out to conservatives. He can win the nomination if he can corral enough conservatives to match the more moderate wing of the party. And Huckabee is helping with that. He's probably not wanting to help with that. If you're not a McCain supporter, then you're either in the Romney camp or the Huckabee camp, so they're split on that side. It's the McCain camp and anybody but McCain camp, that side is split. That's helping McCain.

Ted Simons:
And we'll get back much more to John McCain and the evening as we go on. We want to get to the democratic side. Bob, it sounds as though this win for Obama in Georgia is interesting, in that it's a little bigger than anticipated?

Bob Grossfeld:
I think it's bordering on amazing. If you put it in a historical context of a black man winning in Georgia, just when you say that out loud, I think what we're seeing is the beginning -- the beginning moves of a real generational split. Less so racial, less so gender, but a generational split. If that holds as the results come in throughout the west, that's going to be a very, very different looking map that we're used to looking at.

Ted Simons:
Especially in the general election. If Obama winds up the candidate, the south is going to be very -- Obama against McCain in the south, what a dynamic that would be.

Bob Grossfeld:
Yeah. And I think the other thing to be looking at this evening is, on the one side, on the republican side, you've got a fracturing that is just starting to show up between the various camps that Stan alluded to. On the democratic side, you've got mass enthusiasm, really, in general, and then people are just voting for one or the other. But there's not that enmity between the two that I think is clearly showing up on the republican side.

Stan Barnes:
I think that's a fair statement. It's my nature to want to argue with bob on this point, but I can't. My democratic friends, and what I sense in Arizona, they've got this kind of one-two, what a great choice I have as a democrat, I get to vote for the first woman or the first black man, they're both great candidates. The republican side is no doubt more split, divided, a civil war. The party is fractured and carrying a special burden, that we hold the White House right now and a lot of people aren't happy in this country. You don't see John McCain and Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee carrying George Bush with them in their speech-making and the like. They're all talking about a change, a turnover in policies. Uniting the party is what you hear John McCain talking about a lot. The winner of the republican nomination has to unite the party in order to win in November this year, and that's why John McCain is talking about it so much.

Ted Simons:
And in listening to talk radio, which is just so much against John McCain, it's absolutely fascinating. Even here in Arizona, you hear about James Dobson, definitely the patriarch of the social conservative movement. You've got Rush Limbaugh, all these folks saying they don't know if they're going to vote for him if he becomes the presidential candidate. It's changing the nature of the Republican Party. From the democratic side, democrats are watching this. You don't stop your candidate from committing suicide? Are you just going to stand back and watch? How does this work into what the democrats are trying to do?

Bob Grossfeld:
They're smiling a lot. And again, I think it speaks to that generational shift. Within the republican party, I've -- I mean, I've many times suggested, you know, that control by the far right is about to start to wither away, and have woken up the next day and taken a couple of Advil because I was dead wrong about that. But I think that's what you're starting to see. And McCain's success, along with Huckabee for that matter, is starting to make that happen.

Ted Simons:
On both sides, are we seeing less ideology, and more in the sense of who can get something done, charisma-style? What's happening here as far as what people are looking for?

Bob Grossfeld:
I think at this stage, it's personality driven. And for better or for worse, and I'd say probably for better at this stage, one of the things that's been a by-product of this very, very long campaign season, with like daily debates almost, it is just you have a much better informed electorate, and we've started to bond with these people.

Stan Barnes:
Obama on the Democratic side, Obama is doing well for the same reason Paris Hilton is famous. He's doing well because --

Bob Grossfeld:
Yeah, he's a good-looking black man.

Stan Barnes: He's tall, articulate, a black man, a fresh face. But no one has any idea really what he's about politically. He doesn't even talk about it. He's up in the level about change. That's the analogy to Paris, we don't know why he's there, either. In the Democratic Party, I think that's real. The Republican Party is a lot less personality-driven this cycle.

Ted Simons:
As today's primary approached, candidates hurried to rally for support here in Arizona. Barack Obama spoke at Veterans Memorial Coliseum. Here's some of what he had to say.

Barack Obama:
Arizona, I'm here to tell that you my faith in the American people has been vindicated. When I travel all across the country, people have been spirited, engaged, excited in this election. Look at this crowd. People have been coming out in record numbers, people have been listening to the debates, reading the policy papers of all the candidates. Now, I'd like to take all the credit for this. I would. But I have to admit that part of the reason everybody's so excited is they know that they will be selecting this November the next president of the United States. And whatever else happens, whatever else happens, you know that the name George W. Bush will not be on the ballot. The American people are anxious about their futures. They don't want to just look backwards, they want to look forwards. I know this because I've been in conversations with you. You've told me your stories. All too often they've been stories of struggle and hardship. All across this country I have met workers who, after 20, 30 years of putting their heart and soul into a company, making profits for shareholders, suddenly they're left without a job, without health care, without a pension, trying to figure out how they're going to survive on a $7 job at the local fast-foot food joint. All across America I meet retirees who have seen their former companies go through a bankruptcy, dump their pensions, even as the C.E.O. of the company gets a golden parachute for themselves. I meet veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan who are proud of their service, and rightfully so, because they have done everything that has been asked of them. They have performed magnificently on behalf of this country. But those veterans are still thinking about their buddies who are still in Iraq. They wonder, they question the wisdom of a mission that has cost us so dearly in blood and treasure and has not made us more safe. If you are ready for change, then we can stop talking about the outrage of 47 million people without health insurance and start doing something about it. This is personal for me. This is personal for me. My mother died of cancer when she was 53 years old. That was tragic enough. She never saw her grandchildren. But what made it worse was watching her on her hospital bed reading insurance forms, because she had just gotten a new job. And the insurance company was saying, maybe this is a preexisting condition and we don't have to pay for your medical care. I know what it's like to see a loved one suffer, not just because they're sick, but because of a broken health care system. I said, I'm going to put forward a plan that says everybody in America will have access to a health care that is at least as good as the health care I have as a member of congress. And if you don't have health care, you can buy into a government plan, and we will subsidize you, and you can't be excluded for a preexisting condition. And we will negotiate with the drug companies for the cheapest available price on drugs. We will emphasize prevention, so that we don't have children going to the emergency room for treatable illnesses like asthma.

Ted Simons:
Let's go ahead and take a look now at how that message is translating into votes on this Super Tuesday. Barack Obama has won Georgia. As we mentioned earlier, won by a sizeable margin and a big win for Barack Obama there. He won Delaware, as well. As far as Senator Hillary Clinton is concerned, we'll get to that in just a second, as far as some of the states she has won. She of course won Arkansas, which is not a surprise, along with New York, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Massachusetts. Still of course very early. We talk a lot about on the republican side it looks as though Missouri is a pretty good bellwether state, and Mike Huckabee is leading there. Is that one we should watch closely, Stan, to see how things could pan out in the next few weeks in this race?

Stan Barnes:
I think so. It's not the east coast, it's a melting pot of a lot of the heart of the country, with 3%, Mike Huckabee has a narrow lead over John McCain, and Romney is in the distant third spot. The back story after today might be that John McCain is still the front-runner because he has most of the delegates and may win, hopefully, in my view will win most tonight. But Romney drops away to what we all thought was the Huckabee spot, the spoiler spot, the guy that's hanging on. And Huckabee is just resurging. He's beating Romney in a half dozen states, maybe more. He's going to win some it looks like outright. And Romney so far tonight is winning Massachusetts, his home state, and that's about it.

Ted Simons:
Those voters, let's say Huckabee -- my question before tonight was where do the Huckabee voters go once he drops out? Is he going to be a big broker there, come convention time?

Stan Barnes:
This is the fun part of the business we're in. This is an election like no other in our lifetime. If John McCain doesn't corral the 1,191 delegates he needs to become the nominee, there's going to be some kind of deal-making. For that matter, there has been deal-making in the caucuses that have taken place so far from Iowa to West Virginia today.

Ted Simons:
We talked about Missouri being a bellwether for the republicans. For the democrats anything specific to keep an eye on?

Bob Grossfeld:
Actually Arizona, which has steadily, over the last decade, moved into the swing column and is now firmly planted as a swing state, it's the -- and it should be one of the first states to report out with the large Latino population, as an indicator of what might happen in California. The big deal tonight is California. And I don't see anybody expecting -- at least on the democratic side -- expecting that we're going to come out of this tonight saying, okay, Clinton's the nominee or Obama. It's going to keep going. Although I think McCain might come out of it as clearly he's won.

Ted Simons:
And that's as good a time as any, I guess, to go ahead and talk about how the delegates are parceled out on this night. So many winners take alls for the republicans. Bob, why don't you explain just how the democrats get this done.

Stan Barnes: Please, do, Bob, the rest of us are all listening, please, go right ahead.

Bob Grossfeld:
It is the essence of the democratic system. It's not all that complicated. A portion of the delegates will be apportioned, based on the total statewide vote. In other words, who wins when you add up all of the vote. But most of them are going to be -- well, excluding the super delegates and the bonus delegates and some others, the ones that are going to be decided tonight will be done by the congressional district. So that's why I think you've heard democrats and democratic analysts saying, don't get too excited about who won, who lost tonight, because when you look at the delegate count, it's very, very possible for someone to technically win a state, but wind up with fewer delegates, and that's what happened in I think Nevada, for instance.

Stan Barnes:
I watched Senator Obama and Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton on national television. The first question was what's more important, the popular vote or the delegate vote. Bob's making the point, there's momentum that goes with the popular vote, and delegates that go with winning delegates. Of the 21 republican states today, 12 are winner take all states. That's the simplest method. There's about six republican states, some sort of proportional thing, much like the California process, where they are by congressional district. And then there are three that are not simply winner take all. You have to have a certain threshold before you take all, but that's the play on the republican side.

Ted Simons:
For the Democrats, this proportional allocation business, seems like you need a knockout punch to really make a difference on a night like this, a; and b -- correct me if I'm wrong -- if you're trailing, it would seem like it takes that much more to catch up. Once you get a little bit of separation, it's hard to catch up when everything's proportioned. Does that make sense?

Bob Grossfeld:
It makes sense. Like most things that make sense, it doesn't really apply to the party. You can lag behind to a certain degree. And without a chalkboard and god knows what else, it's about winning by a very large margin versus just winning. And so in an instance where, for instance, a candidate wins by a 60-40 kind of margin, they will probably wind up with about the same number of delegates. It would take an exceptional showing, 75%, 80%, to capture most or all of them. That's not even talking about the super delegates and the other delegates who really aren't being apportioned. And right now, that's the game. Not to denigrate the voting process, but the way this is being played out, at the end of this night it's the super delegates and the others who aren't committed yet.

Ted Simons:
Senator Hillary Clinton made a campaign stop two weeks ago at Cesar Chavez High School in Laveen. Here are some of the highlights of her town hall presentation.

Hillary Clinton:
And I know that you're ready for change, aren't you? I am here to ask for your support because if you're ready for change, I'm ready to lead. And together we will make it happen. And what has happened over the last seven years is a detour from our destiny. It is not in keeping with who we are as a people. So I want to get us back to acting like Americans again. Rolling up our sleeves and getting about the business of making the future. You don't need somebody on television to tell you that we've got a mortgage crisis in America. Or that energy costs have gone through the roof. Or that health care is becoming more and more unaffordable, or that unemployment is rising or stock markets are falling. You don't need anybody to tell you that. Because on a daily basis we are seeing the results of the failed policies of the last seven years. So what we've got to decide is what we're going to do together. I want to set a goal of getting this economy going again, and working for every American, not just for the wealthy and the well-connected who have done so well over the last seven years. You know, the oil companies, the drug companies, the health insurance companies, they've had a president. Isn't it time for the American people to have a president again? In order for us to make the economy work, we've got to invest and take care of the people who work for America, the great middle class and working families of America who get up every day, do the work, make the difference. So how are we going to get the economy working again? Well, we're going to get back to fiscal responsibility, number one. When George Bush became president, he had a balanced budget and a surplus, didn't he? We had a projected 5.6 trillion surplus. We've now got a nine trillion debt, and we're borrowing money from everybody. You hear about borrowing money from China and Japan and you know, rich countries like that. We even borrow money from Mexico now. You know, one way to think about it, we borrow money from China to buy oil from the Saudis. That is not a smart strategy for America and we're going to reverse that strategy. We're going to get back to fiscal responsibility, first things first, pay as you go, invest in the American people again. Let's get America moving.

Ted Simons:
We should mention we would show some clips of republican candidates in the past few weeks to campaign, but Stan, they haven't shown up because, let's face it, this is considered McCain country, and McCain considered to win. Does he have to win big, though, to win?

Stan Barnes:
No, he doesn't, because it's a winner take all state. He gets all the delegates if he wins by one vote. I know, there is a game of perception. And the Romney and Huckabee teams are saying if McCain doesn't break 50% in his home state, somehow that is a stinging rebuke. It's way inside baseball, and won't have any impact on the overall reaction.

Ted Simons:
Do you think this last-minute push by social conservatives and, you know, the farthest portions of the right from the republican party, who just came out so strongly against McCain on this last day, is that one of the reasons Huckabee's doing so well?

Stan Barnes:
It's got to be. There is a family feud playing out in full view with John McCain and Huckabee and Romney playing their parts in that family feud. The bellwethers and leaders, each wanting to claim the bulk, the middle ground of the party. The Republican Party is in a bigger disarray than I've seen in my 20 years of activism. It's going to be quite a chore for John McCain or anybody to unite the party. That's where the eye on the ball needs to be kept: it's about winning the White House.

Ted Simons:
Bringing it over to the democratic side, is there going to be a split in the democratic party from the Clinton fans and the Obama fans, if this goes on much further?

Bob Grossfeld:
No. Next question.

Stan Barnes:
It was so simple.

Bob Grossfeld:
Seriously, because again, democrats nationally are sitting here with two superb choices, and knowing quite literally, whichever choice is ultimately selected is going to make history and is going to represent a very, very dramatic change from over 200 years of basically the same person occupying the White House. And that is so dramatic and so significant that, yeah, the two sides will come together. I don't see that as being a problem.

Ted Simons:
Even as contentious as this might get if things continue to narrow?

Bob Grossfeld:
Yeah, it's a different type of contentiousness. I think they had their down point a week or so ago.

Ted Simons:
It looks as though -- and we're kind of getting initial reaction as far as exit polling is concerned -- that President Clinton is not helping Senator Clinton all that much. Are they going to push him off to the side after today?

Bob Grossfeld:
I don't think you can push bill Clinton anywhere. But certainly refrain what he's doing. He served a tactical purpose that backfired on him. They needed at that time to put a stop to the Obama wave. And I think that certainly worked, it created a discussion that hadn't been taking place before, which is the difference between somebody who has a plan and somebody who is going to uplift us all and make us all feel good on the way towards resolving problems. But the -- and I think it's just frankly unfortunate that they selected Bill Clinton to do that, because he's lost stature with a lot of people because of that.

Ted Simons:
Let's talk about Latino voters here in Arizona and around the country. Stan, the Republican Party with George Bush, a sizeable number of Latino voters went for the president. I'm getting the impression that's not going to be the same this time around. What are you seeing out there? Give me your thoughts on that.

Ted Simons:
Because we have a closed primary system, where only republicans can plain republican and democrat alike, it's not going to be so much a phenomenon in today's election. The generally -- generally Hispanics are registered and democratic voters. Come November, it'll be a whole 'nuther matter, each party angling for a swing electorate, and each party will play for it. Today's action, that question is a pointed question in the democratic primary for the most part.

Ted Simons:
And indeed, from the democratic side, Barack Obama is supposed to have trouble with Latino voters. That's what I keep reading. Are you seeing that?

Bob Grossfeld:
You've got to understand, the media collectively is out for a story. And they're trying to -- well, this is the problem and this is the problem. On the ground, that's not happening. On the ground what's happening is he's being introduced, collecting support, and to some extent pulling it away from Hillary. But it's not -- it is less about race, it's more about a generational change, the over-40, under-40. Obama is appealing to Latinos under 40, just the same way he's appealing to Catholics under 40 or kids under 40. Anybody else, it's that division that is creating this wave.

Ted Simons:
Stan referred to the general election. Obviously different dynamics at play. But again, that Latino vote coming out in the general election, democrats counting on more of a turnout and more support this time?

Bob Grossfeld:
Oh I think absolutely. And I think the republicans are going to have a real problem with the positions that they've been developing over a number of years now, about immigration. That has been interpreted by the Latino community as anti-Latino.

Stan Barnes:
There's no one more famous in the United States than John McCain on that issue, on taking bullets in his own party on the comprehensive reform effort he'd like to do. I'm not sure that's going to hold up. If John McCain is the nominee, which is think he's going to be, he is going to neutralize that issue, which the democratic camp would like to make an issue in the general election.

Bob Grossfeld:
That may or may not play out. But if that happens, it's like squeezing a balloon. He may be able to do that and pick up Latinos that he wouldn't have otherwise got. But who's he going to lose on the other side to a probable third-party candidate? It's not as cut and dry as, you know, he went out in front on immigration reform, and therefore he's going to be embraced.

Stan Barnes:
The voters are complex. We sit around the table and try to predict, and we're always wrong, it seems. The pundits are always wrong, and voters are not single-minded. They judge candidates on emotions, style, and a bag of issues. When voters judge John McCain, even those who think he's wrong in his immigration policy, there's other hot buttons, including the war in Iraq, national leadership, experience, and the budget hawk nature that he owns space in. That'll all come to bear in November.

Ted Simons:
And we've been discussing, the influence of Hispanic voters grows as the Hispanic population grows, and some say that might play a bigger role than ever in the primaries. Mike Sauceda tells us more.

Mike Sauceda:
A night of partying at the Disney resort in Florida by members of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. Some 1,000 members of NATLEAO showed up at the Disney resort, 6,000 members, a far cry from the number that started the group 31 years ago. NATLEAO has grown because the Hispanic population has grown. That means more Hispanic voters.

Arturo Vargas:
The Latino vote in 06' will reach a historic proportion, about 8% of the national vote, the highest national share of the Latino vote in any election, be it midterm or presidential. I think that really sets the stage for an historic turnout in 2008.

Mike Sauceda:
According to the US Census 58 percent of Hispanics were registered to vote in 2004. There are 35 million Hispanics in the country. Registration and voting rights are lower than almost all ethnic groups except Asians. 75% of whites are registered to vote. 69% of blacks are registered, and 52% of Asians are also registered to vote. Hispanics also vote in lower percentages. In 2000, 67% of whites voted , 60% of black, followed by Hispanics at 47%.

Arturo Vargas:
There is a performance gap. Latinos are less likely to register to vote than say whites or African-Americans. And that's a problem. That's why we have launched, time citizenship, to increase the number of people applying to be citizens. That's going to translate the next step. It's time to vote.

Bill Richardson:
I want to just spend time hugging all of you.

Mike Sauceda:
Bill Richardson was the first major candidate to run for president who was Hispanic. If he were still running he couldn't necessarily count on Hispanics voting for him.

Arturo Vargas:
I think what drives Latino voters are Latino interests. They look at the circumstances of an election. They're not going to vote because it's an R or a D, or even if it's because it's a Latino running. Heck no, Latinos have become a very sophisticated element of the electorate. And they are going to be looking at what their interests and what the candidates are saying.

Mike Sauceda:
Although Richardson is no longer in the race, Hispanics will play a bigger role in Super Tuesday than they have in other primaries. With several states with large Hispanic populations participating in the election.

Arturo Vargas:
Analysis, accelerated primary schedule, February 5th, we're calling it Super Duper Tuesday because states include California, Arizona, New York, Illinois, states that add up to 60% of all Latino voters in the country, are going to have their primaries or caucuses by February 5th. So this is the first time in a presidential election, that Latinos have an opportunity to really decide the party's nominee.

Mike Sauceda:
The NATLEAO conference was held in Florida, a state rich in Hispanic political history. Dr. Dario Moreno teaches Florida politics at Florida International University.

Dario Moreno:
Florida was governed by Cuba during Spanish times. When Florida was a U.S. territory, it actually sent a Cuban to the U.S. Congress as the territorial representative. When Cubans really became politically active in modern times has been in the 1980s, where Hispanic representation in Florida was basically zero. And now we have 14 members of the state house, three state senators, three U.S. congressmen, and one U.S. Senator, Mel Martinez. But what's interesting about Florida is that it's not just dominated by Cubans. They are less than a third of the Hispanics in Florida. But if Florida increased numbers of Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Venezuelans, Columbians, and all these groups are beginning to work together.

Mike Sauceda:
As Hispanics migrate all over the United States from different Latino countries, Florida might be seen as a model of Hispanic voting trends in the U.S.

Dario Moreno:
I think it is. What's interesting about Florida is that the Latino population is coming together. You know, 20 years ago Mexican Americans were all in the southwest. Cubans were all in Miami, Puerto Ricans were all in New York and Connecticut and New Jersey. Now what we're seeing is these populations are migrating within the United States and meeting each other. We find there are some differences, there are some tensions, but we speak the same language, we have the same historic roots. Often we have the same interests, in terms of the importance of our culture and our traditions. And that we have a lot more in common than what divides us. So I think it speaks well, I think the example of Florida speaks well for the Hispanic agenda.

Ted Simons:
Let's take a look at what we know so far on Super Tuesday. Let's start with Senator John McCain and how well he is doing in a variety of states, Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware and New York, New York all in the win column for senator John McCain. As far as Governor Romney is concerned, not nearly as many wins so far, just one: Massachusetts. That is interesting, we'll talk a little more about that, as far as how much the Huckabee factor is at play there. On the democrat side, let's check on Senator Hillary Clinton. She's racked up Oklahoma, Tennessee, Arkansas, Massachusetts, and a big state there, New Jersey. As far as Barack Obama is concerned he's got some wins as well, including a biggie in Georgia, his home state of Illinois, and Delaware and Alabama also in the Obama camp. I'm seeing Obama with 61, close to 62% of the vote. We've got Senator Hillary Clinton with 35, 36% of the vote. That's a sizeable majority for Barack Obama. Sounds like he should get a lot more delegates than Senator Clinton.

Bob Grossfeld:
And he will get some more. But he won't get -- that works out to about two to one. It's not going to be two to one. It will be some combination of those things.
And again, it's because there are pockets where he did very, very well obviously. There are pockets where she did well, those pockets being congressional districts. Add on top of that, the at-large delegates that may be played out, again, it's not as simple as who won and who lost.

Stan Barnes:
Keep in mind, viewers should keep in mind, as convoluted as that is, it's better than it used to be. In the bad old days, it was smoke-filled rooms, the leaders got together, the bosses, and made the deal. That doesn't happen anymore. It's a mixed-up system, nuances, but it's more transparent and more open.

Bob Grossfeld:
We're kind of headed back to that, at least on the democratic side, probably without the smoking, but there will be water bottles everywhere. But because of the proportional voting, and as the delegate count is not that dramatically different, and it won't be at the end of the night, all of a sudden these super delegates that have been tossed around become critical. There's like 800, not necessarily super delegates, but 800 delegates to the convention that are not tied down by the results of a vote or a caucus.

Ted Simons:
Who are these folks?

Bob Grossfeld:
About 400 of them are the elected officials, members of congress, house, senate, governors, party officials, and the like. Then there's another slice of them that are just big-time democrats who have been good to the party, party's been good to them, and they get named as a delegate. Well, that's the balance in a very close race, which is what this is turning out to be.

Ted Simons:
Sounds like the definition of a wild card there.

Bob Grossfeld:
Yeah, yeah.

Ted Simons:
We talked about the Huckabee factor. I'm looking here at Tennessee, and we've got John McCain at 34%, Huckabee at 29%, close to 30%, Romney at 22%. That looks like a classic scenario we expected, especially in the south, whereas Huckabee kind of blocks off some of Romney's push.

Stan Barnes:
It's a bit of us trying to make theory out of reality. But it is happening in the south. It's happening in Alabama, as well. John McCain is leading in Alabama right now, and Huckabee is beating Romney in Alabama. John McCain is leading in Tennessee, and Huckabee is beating Romney. The Huckabee-Romney vote, the anybody but John McCain vote, is bigger than John McCain. But his plurality itself, some of these states are winner take all states. This proportionate business won't matter. The anybody but John McCain vote was divided.

Ted Simons:
Looking at Georgia and Missouri, you've still got Huckabee on top, which has to be a surprise.

Stan Barnes:
The south itself is evolving right in front of our eyes. I see that Huckabee, with about half the votes counted, has about 35% and John McCain has about 32% of the vote. Romney's running third there. John McCain is doing very well in the south tonight. By being the contender and leading in Alabama right now and Tennessee, and being neck and neck in Georgia, of course he won Florida. He's proving that he can do well in the south. Republicans have got to do well in the south to win the White House.

Ted Simons:
Let's talk about California and what we've seen so far. Does it say anything about California, or is it just such a different beast you've got to wait until the numbers come in?

Stan Barnes:
I can take that one. It's a different beast. It's its own country, the fourth largest economy. It's 58 congressmen or some ridiculous number. It's its own world. I don't think there's any way to really predict it until we see later tonight the way it first comes out, and then the results will start to speak for themselves.

Ted Simons:
So many conservatives against John McCain, especially making a lot of noise today. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger goes for McCain. He's got his own problems with conservatives in California. Is that an endorsement that helps John McCain in the primaries?

Stan Barnes:
I think it is. If it wasn't, I don't think John McCain would have made such a big deal out of it. He's a smart man and has smart people with him. I think it's working for him. California is a proportionate state for the republicans, so it's not a winner take all, as big as it is. The democratic states, like those, Mitt Romney could win California overall, but not win that many more delegates than John McCain, so we'll have to see.

Bob Grossfeld:
We should point out that the Governator's wife came out and supported Obama.

Ted Simons:
Fun talk at dinnertime there. Former Congressman Mo Udall famously says Arizona mothers are the only ones in the country that can't tell their little children they can grow up to be president. In the past 45 years, none have made it to the white house. Mike Sauceda tells us more.

Mike Sauceda:
Barry Goldwater, Mo Udall, Bruce Babbitt, John McCain. Those are the Arizonans who have tried but not succeeded in becoming president of the United States. Dr. Patrick Kenny is chairman of the political science chair at A.S.U.

Patrick Kenny:
Especially in the modern era, I think it would be true. If you go back 200 years, you have a concentration of candidates in the states, but in the modern era, I think that's unusual.

Mike Sauceda:
Although we've had our fair share, the candidates from Arizona have never made to it the white house. Goldwater came closest when he ran as the republican nominee against President Lyndon Johnson. Mo Udall ran in 1976, and Babbitt in 1988, and McCain, a republican, ran for the first time in 2000. Neither went beyond the primaries. Why can't Arizonans win the White House?

Patrick Kenny:
I think it probably is kind of unexplainable. It's nothing about Arizona per se, it's just really hard to know sometimes who's going to catch the momentum. Certainly, in 1976, when Mo Udall was running, the democratic party was pretty wide open. If the momentum would have changed a little bit, especially in 1976 when Mo Udall came in second to carter, he could have wound up capturing that thing if the numbers would have run a little differently. In McCain's case, he was fighting in 2000, the established republican candidate early on. The heavy money in the Republican Party supported Bush.

Mike Sauceda:
Although Goldwater did not win the presidency, he left a political legacy that still exists today.

Patrick Kenny:
The goal was to rekindle the center the party, away from the eastern establishment. At that time in the 1960's, it was a very kind of moderate, almost liberal republican party. His main competition for the 1964 nomination was Nelson Rockefeller, the governor of New York, a very kind of moderate, almost liberal at times republican. Goldwater was trying to move that away from the east to the west and Midwest. Ironically, it moves to the south in by the 80's and 90's. That really wasn't what Goldwater was searching for. There were certain policy things in the south that there were some similarities there.

Mike Sauceda:
Almost all of Arizona's candidates have a good relationship with the press.

Patrick Kenny:
I suppose Goldwater wasn't as popular in 1964 as the others were at the time they ran for the nomination. He regained popularity later with his kind of senior statesman status in the late seventies and early/mid eighties, before he retired in 1986. Babbitt said he didn't get enough attention from the press. He gets much more attention during the Clinton years than he did for his 1980 run was very, very short. Mo Udall was a favorite of the press because he was very witty, very glib, very nice guy and easy to interview. He was kind of popular.

Mike Sauceda:
At least on the Republican side, Arizona candidates have not been afraid to buck the party.

Patrick Kenny:
Certainly true on the republican side with Goldwater and McCain, they have carved out separate paths for themselves. Probably the most traditional for the era would have been Mo Udall, who was kind of a classic democratic congressman from the 60's into the early 90's.

Mike Sauceda:
Mo Udall once said, we made Arizona the only state in the union where mothers don't tell their kids they can grow up to be president. McCain has a chance to change that right now.

Patrick Kenny:
We're seven, eight months away, so things can change. But if you think from 2006 forward, the main things that hurt the republican party in the 2006 congressional elections are still in place, if not worse, in the sense that the economy is worse now than it was in those days.

Ted Simons:
Let's go ahead and see how the Arizona senior senator is making out on this Super Tuesday. Senator John McCain winning Connecticut, Illinois, New Jersey, Delaware, and New York. As far as Mitt Romney is concerned, Governor Romney having a rough night so far. One win, Massachusetts. On the democratic side, we've got Senator Clinton doing reasonably well so far. Oklahoma, Arkansas, New York, Massachusetts, and New Jersey, all relatively expected there. As far as Senator Obama is concerned a very big and for some unexpected win in Georgia. Delaware, Alabama, and a lot of home roots there in Kansas. Arizona, we should be starting to get some numbers on Arizona relatively soon. Bob, we're going to talk about the Republicans in a second, because John McCain will obviously win. The question is by how much. What are you seeing out there?

Bob Grossfeld:
From the street level, it would appear that Obama might be able to edge out Clinton in Arizona. So much of that is going to be driven by the early vote, and whether Obama's surge was enough, and intense enough a couple weeks ago, when the ballots were sent out. And whether his surge continued through election day for those who were either dropping them off at the polls or voting at a precinct. It's -- it's going to be extraordinarily tight, I think.

Ted Simons:
And you see Arizona as a bellwether, as far as the democrats are concerned?

Bob Grossfeld: Absolutely.

Ted Simons:
Republican side, John McCain wins? We're pretty sure about that. Does he have to win with a 50% majority?

Stan Barnes:
No, he wins by one vote and gets the delegates. But I know there's a big symbolic factor here. Just as a parlor game would go, Massachusetts, Romney's home state is up today. And Governor Romney won his home state, as he should. He beat John McCain there by nine points, 51-40, so that's 11 points. There will be kind of an around the water cooler discussion among the railbirds like myself, how well did he do in his home state versus Mitt Romney in his home state. But it really doesn't mean much except as a parlor game for us.

Bob Grossfeld:
Stan, it strikes me, though, that the McCain win in Arizona and the shape of it might be a pretty good look at how deep and how the fractures go within the republican party.

Stan Barnes:
The reason -- we were talking about that off the air for a moment. The Romney candidate address in Arizona is interesting, because there's a substantial L.D.S. voting electorate here. I voted myself, and I had to wait 30 minutes this morning to vote. My wife voted at midday and had to wait an hour and a half to vote. There's a big turnout. The L.D.S. is energized, and that dynamic itself won't play out nationally. The republican party in Arizona is overweighed versus the national republican party. For that matter, the national electorate, it might not be what it would have been if Romney wasn't in the race, but it's still going to be a victory.

Ted Simons:
Is an L.D.S. voter a Romney voter?

Stan Barnes:
Just unscientifically, we'll guesstimate that nine out of ten are. And it's a factor that is not just over the L.D.S. faith, it applies to other faiths and races. Bill Clinton made the comment that the race card is such that people vote for the race they identify with. The L.D.S. vote is very similar. It's a special time, never been able to vote for an L.D.S. candidate. Way lopsided is the yes answer to that question.

Ted Simons:
On the Democrat side, after tonight, once all the confetti falls, which candidate do you think will be better prepared for the long haul?

Bob Grossfeld:
At this stage I'd say Obama. Right now he's -- he's pretty much even-steven between he and Clinton. Depending on how he does in Arizona and California. If he can really close that gap, which is what the polls were suggesting, particularly for California, where at one point he was 20 points behind, if he can close that gap and just keep his momentum going, you know, sometimes in politics you can't beat luck and money. And right now he's got money and he seems to be having the luck. He's got that other element, which is people are just flocking to him. And you can't beat that.

Stan Barnes:
I think the second story tonight, if the resurgence of Mike Huckabee is probably the number one story, and John McCain doing as well as we thought he would in some of the states he was supposed to win. The other real story is that Romney's having a really bad night, it appears. He's being beat almost everywhere, running third almost everywhere. He won Massachusetts which he had to win just to save face. Whether or not this plays out in him stepping away, depending on -- he's being calling in kind of an arrogant fashion to Mr. Huckabee to get out, and that's angered a lot of people. That game is going to be played by those two camps. Tonight has recalibrated that game. Huckabee will appear to have the momentum and the upper hand in the anybody but John McCain side, and John McCain is doing what he's supposed to do, win the delegates.

Ted Simons:
Headlines tomorrow, what do you see?

Stan Barnes:
On the Republican side, headlines would be Huckabee changes political landscape.

Bob Grossfeld:
On the Republican side? McCain on his way to the nomination, democrats still undecided.

Stan Barnes:
Somebody has a crush on Obama. I think that's it.

Ted Simons: Good enough. Thank you so much, bob, good to have you here as well, thank you Stan. I want to remind you that coming up we have two more hours of political coverage on this Super Tuesday here on Channel 8, so stay with us. Coming up tomorrow, efforts to make high school more relevant to Arizona students, while producing a skilled workforce. See why they don't call it vocational education anymore. That's tomorrow on "Horizon." and please visit our website, azpbs.org/Horizon, for video and transcripts of "Horizon". That's it for now. Stay with us now for continuing coverage of this Super Tuesday. Thanks for joining us, you have a great evening.