Discussing Recent Polling Results
Nov. 3, 2022
With less than a week until Election Day, Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy, will discuss recent poll numbers.
“We just came out of the field with a state wide survey on the first and second of November to 500 voters statewide. These are likely voters, there are the people who are going to show up. They have a history of participating in our elections,” Bentz said.
What Do the Results Show?
The U.S. Senate Race
“All of these races have really narrowed quite a bit,” Bentz said. “Mark Kelly is holding a 1.4 lead over Blake Masters with about 46% of the vote, compared to about 45% of the vote for Masters. The big difference we’re seeing here is about 10 points worth of Republicans are going towards the Democrats in both this race and the governor’s race,” Bentz said.
There are a large amount of Independent voters who will make or break the results of this election, according to Bentz.
“Kelly has done a better job of reaching out to these Independent voters and trying to court them,” Bentz said, like how Kyrsten Sinema did in the past.
Party loyalty is usually seen in polls, as with this election, but there are about double the amount of Republicans switching sides, Bentz said.
The Gubernatorial Race
“This is the first time in our polling that we’ve actually seen Kari Lake have a lead. She’s got a 1.4 lead over Hobbs. This is where we saw the lines actually cross, and this is one of the things that I talk about– polls are about momentum, and helping you understand who has got it and what’s likely to happen going into election day,” Bentz said.
The results of this poll illustrates that this race has really narrowed, Bentz said. The data is split.