New polls from HighGround Inc. show Arizona Democrats in the lead before early voting starts in six weeks. The survey shows Governor Katie Hobbs with a 15-point advantage in the Governor’s race. It also shows Secretary of State Adrian Fontes in an eight-point lead and Kris Mayes with an eight-point lead for Attorney General.
Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc., joined “Arizona Horizon” to discuss the new polling numbers.
The Democratic incumbents for these top state positions are benefitting in this year’s election from having that time served in office and the name I.D. that comes with it, according to Bentz.
In the governor’s race particularly, Bentz noted that large numbers of Independent voters are going for Hobbs rather than Andy Biggs, the Republican candidate for governor, in this recent polling. Also, he noted that Biggs is also note fully capturing his own party as Bentz shared that 1 in 5 Republicans are still undecided in their vote for governor.
Bentz also shared that the crossover vote is another factor of Hobbs’ lead over Biggs and elaborated on what that means in terms of the polling numbers.
“Right now less than 1% of Democrats are going for Biggs compared to 12% of Republicans for Hobbs,” Bentz said.
Looking at the race for Attorney General, Bentz said he was surprised by Mayes holding a sizable lead over Petersen noting her 280 vote win in 2022. He went on to emphasize that this is another race where more Independent voters have voiced their preference for the Democratic candidate.
Turning to the Secretary of State race, Bentz shared that Alexander Kolodin, the Republican candidate for Secretary of State, shares the same woes as Biggs when it comes to garnering the Republican party’s vote. Bentz shared why their alignment to President Trump may leave them “vulnerable”
“Right now with affordability issues, gas prices, the conflict that you just spoke about (the Iran War), those are really unpopular with Independent voters. And so, those who are closely aligned with Trump on those topics are unfortunately seeing negative results when it comes to the polling,” Bentz said.
However in the down ballot races, HighGround Inc.’s polling shows slight leads for the Democratic candidates in the State Treasurer and Superintendent of Public Instruction races. Bentz shared that Republicans do have a “built-in advantage” in these down ballot races because the have a registration and participation advantage.
