Arizona polling update as Gallego leads Lake in Senate race

Arizona polling update: Gallego leads Lake in Senate race as 2024 voting date approaches

Paul Bentz, Senior Vice President of Research and Strategy at HighGround Inc., joined “Arizona Horizon” to discuss the latest polling numbers in Arizona. Bentz discussed polling numbers for the presidential race and down the ballot.

Currently in the Senate race, Ruben Gallego (D) holds a 7.4% lead over Kari Lake (R), according to this poll.

“There’s about a half million ballots in so far,” Bentz said, “which is a little bit lower and slower than 2024 and in fact behind 2022. What we’re actually seeing so far is a slight Republican return advantage by about 30,000 or so ballots.”

This return advantage is different than the past two cycles. In 2020 at this point, Democrats were ahead.

“I think it is a bit of an underperformance for Democrats so far,” Bentz said. “They don’t have that same enthusiasm, at least to this point, that we’ve seen in these past few years. It is also because of the fact that it is a two-page ballot and that it took quite a bit of time for all the ballots to arrive.”

Bentz believes Republicans’ past concerns about early voting are starting to fade as more Republicans are voting early.

“They’ve spent a bit of money on Republicans to return their ballot and spending time to increase voter turnout,” Bentz said. “It seems to be working.”