Remnants of Hurricane Rosa to Douse Arizona


TED: THE REMANENTS OF HURRICANE ROSA ARE EXPECTED TO DROP UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME PARTS OF ARIZONA, WITH AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE PHOENIX AREA. JOINING US NOW IS ASU’S CLIMATALOGIST RANDY SERMON. GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE. IS THIS PRETTY UNUSUAL?

RANDY SERMON: WELL, THIS IS THE TIME WHEN WE'RE GOING TO HAVE THESE KINDS OF STORMS, BUT THEY ARE PRETTY RARE. WE GET ONE MAYBE EVERY THREE OR FOUR YEARS. WE HAVE HAD BIG ONES IN THE PAST, BUT THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT STORM.

TED: WE HAVE A GRAPHIC OF SOME OF THESE PAST STORMS AND HOW MUCH RAIN THEY HAVE DUMPED AND THEY HAVE DUMPED A LOT. GOODNESS GRACIOUS, 12 INCHES THERE A COUPLE OF TIMES. WHERE WOULD ROSA FIT ON THIS GRAPH?

RANDY SERMON: WELL, IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY. I MEAN WHAT WE WILL SEE IS IF YOU NOTICE WITH ALL OF THESE RECORD STORMS THAT WE’VE HAD IN THE PAST THE BIG RAINFALL OCCURS NEAR THE BORDER, DOWN IN THE SOUTH. YUMA HAS ALREADY, JUST IN THE LAST 24 HOURS GOTTEN OVER AN INCH AND A HALF. SO I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THIS IS GOING TO BE UP THERE, IT MAY NOT BE IN THE TOP FIVE BUT IT’S GOING TO BE A GOOD PRODUCING STORM.

TED: WHERE IS THE STORM CENTERED RIGHT NOW? IT’S NOT LONGER A HURRICAN CORRECT?

RANDY SERMONS: RIGHT.

TED: WHERE IS IT CENTERED RIGHT NOW?

RANDY SERMONS: IT IS STILL OFF OF BAJA. IT WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL LATER TONIGHT. THERE IS A HUGE BLOB OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. SO ON SATELLITE IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS READY TO ENTER ARIZONA. BUT THAT’S JUST ONE OF THE BLOBS, BUT THE CENTER IS STILL OFF IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

TED: SO THE HEAVY RAIN HITS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT?

RANDY SERMONS: YEAH, WE'LL GET A BIG, BIG BAND AND IT WILL CONTINUE ON INTO TOMORROW MORNING SO ANTICIPATE A WET COMMUTE.

TED: WHAT ABOUT WINDS?

RANDY SERMONS: WINDS NOT SO BAD. THIS STORM IS PRIMARILY A SLOW MOVER IN TERMS OF CIRCULATION, SO WE’RE NOT GOING TO GET THE WINDS BUT LOTS OF RAIN.

TED: I WAS GOING TO SAY SLOW MOVER IN TERMS OF CIRCULATION THAT KIND OF MEANS LOTS OF RAIN. IT JUST HAS A LOT OF TIME TO DUMP ON ONE PARTICULAR SPOT.

RANDY SERMONS: RIGHT. RIGHT. THIS IS ALMOST THE EPITOME OF BEING A DROUGHT-BUSTER TYPE OF STORM.

TED: INTERESTING. WELL THAT'S KIND OF ENCOURAGING. I HATE TO SEE THE FLOODING AND STUFF BUT THAT’S KIND OF ENCOURAGING- IS THERE ANYTHING MIXING IN WITH ROSA? LIKE SOME SORT OF PREASURE SYSTEM HERE OR LOW SYSTEM THERERE?

RANDY SERMONS: YEAH, THAT'S ACTUALLY ONE OF THE THINGS THAT'S HAPPENING. WE HAVE A LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH THAT IS COMING IN FROM CALIFORNIA THAT IS FORCING IT TO COME UP THROUGH BAJA AND THEN OVER INTO ARIZONA. OTHERWISE PROBABLY SAN DIEGO WOULD HAVE GOTTEN THE BIG FLOW OF THIS.

TED: INTERESTING. OK NOW I HEAR THAT THERE MIGHT BE SOMETHING BEHIND ROSA, SOME KIND NAMED SERGIO, WHAT IS THAT ALL ABOUT?

RANDY SERMONS: WELL, THIS IS AN EL NIÑO YEAR, AND DURING EL NIÑO YEAR, THE PACIFIC OFF OF THE COAST OF MEXICO GETS A LOT OF HURRICANES. AND OCCASITONALLY SOME OF THOSE WILL CURL UP AND GO INTO ARIZONA. BUT, YES, SURGE GO IS BEHIND IT. IT RIGHT NOW DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING TO TRACK THE SAME WAY THAT ROSA DID. BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE. CATEGORY 3 OR HIGHER.

TED: AND WE COULD STILL GET SOME REMANENTS, WHAT A WEEK FROM NOW, SOMETHING?

RANDY SERMONS: RIGHT. THE LONG-TERM PREDICTIONS ARE SHOWING WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A LOT OF RAIN NEXT WEEK.

TED: THAT'S FANTASTIC. I HATE TO HEAR ABOUT THE FLOODING, YUMA IS PROBABLY GOING TO GET HAMMERED OUT OF ALL OF THIS BUT WE REALLY DO NEED THIS.

RANDY SERMONS: WELL, AND THE KIND OF RAINS WE'RE GETTING ARE WIDESPREAD, SLOW, GENTLE. IT'S THE PERFECT STORM TO CAUSE THE MOISTURE TO SINK INTO THE SOIL AND RELIEVE OUR DROUGHT.

TED: WE WILL LIKELY GET THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT? WHEN THE STORM REALLY COMES ON SHORE AND THAT SORT OF THING?

RANDY SERMONS: NOT REALLY. THE MORE LIKELIHOOD WOULD BE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TED: OK, LET'S GO BACK TO THIS EL NIÑO THING. BECAUSE EVERY YEAR I WANT TO KNOW ABOUT EL NINO AND A COUPLE YEARS AGO, YOU CAME IN HERE ALL EL NINO AND WE GOT NOTHING OUT OF IT. NOW YOU ARE SAYING EL NIÑO THIS WINTER?

RANDY SERMONS: YEAH, AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS SAYING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALL WELL THE WAY INTO JANUARY.

TED: OH, MY GOODNESS. AND THIS LITERALLY IS PART OF IT?

RANDY SERMONS: YEAH- THE END OF THE MONSOON IS ALWAYS AN IFFY TYPE OF THING. SO TRYING TO TELL US EXACTLY WHEN THE END OF THE MONSOON SEASON IS, AND THE END OF OUR HURRICANE SEASON IS A LITTLE FUZZY.

TED: I WAS GOING TO SAY, SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER, THIS TIME OF YEAR, NORMALLY, WITHOUT ALL OF THESE HURRICANES COMING INTO TOWN. RELATIVELY DRY?

RANDY SERMONS: IT STARTS TO DRY OUT. THE OFFICIAL END OF THE MONSOON WAS AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER. AND NOW AS WE MOVE INTO OCTOBER, WE DRY OUT. OUR MORNINGS WILL BE NICE AND COOL, AND WE'LL START TO HAVE TEMPERATURES THAT AREN'T GOING TO BE UP IN THE 100 DEGREE RANGE.

TED: BEAUTIFUL, FOR THE MONSOONS IT'S ALWAYS THE HIGHER AREAS WHERE YOU GET THE MORE RAIN. FOR SOMETHING LIKE THIS, DOES THAT MATTER, HIGHER ELEVATION?

RANDY SERMONS: ABSOLUTELY. AND IN FACT, WHEN WE'RE LOOKING AT THE VALLEY, CAVE CREEK WILL END UP WITH A LOT MORE RAIN THAN SKY HARBOR AIRPORT. BECAUSE THE TOPOGRAPHY AS IT COMES THROUGH THE VALLEY, IT WILL PUSH IT UP AND CREATE MORE RAINS ON THE UPLAND SIDE OF THE VALLEY AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW, CENTER PART OF THE VALLEY.

TED: LAST QUESTION, THIS IS THE EASY QUESTION. [LAUGHTER] IS CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL WARMING, THAT WHOLE THING -- DOES THAT HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH WHAT WE'RE SEEING?

RANDY SERMONS: IT IS MAKING THE STORMS WETTER. THAT IS ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE FOUND IN JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES ARE BECOMING WETTER. YOU’VE SEEN THE STUFF IN THE CAROLINAS, YOU’VE SEEN THES STUFF IN TEXAS AND IN PUERTO RICO, WE'RE GOING TO GET A LOT OF RAIN OUT OF THIS.

TED: LET'S HOPE SO. LET'S HOPE IT IS A NICE GENTLE RAIN. NO CRAZIENESS GOING ON HERE. GOOD TO HAVE YOU. THANKS FOR THE INFO.

TED: UP NEXT, WE HEAR FROM THE BLACK THEATER TROOPS NEW PRODUCTION OF “THE WIZ”, BUT FIRST WE HEAR FROM THE WICKED WITCH OF "THE WIZ," JENNIFER ROBINSON, WHO SINGS "NO BAD NEWS." ♪

The remnants of Hurricane Rosa are expected to drop up to four inches of rain in some parts of Arizona. We get an update with Arizona State University climatologist Randy Cerveny.

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