Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News Poll

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We’ll discuss the results of the latest Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll, which includes results on the presidential race in Arizona, our U.S. Senate race, Maricopa County sheriff and two ballot measures. Joe Garcia of Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy will tell us more.

TED SIMONS: GOOD EVENING, I AM TED SIMONS. FIRST LADY MICHELLE OBAMA WAS DOWNTOWN CAMPAIGNING FOR HILLARY CLINTON AND PROMOTED CLINTON BY GOING AFTER DONALD TRUMP.

FIRST LADY MICHELLE OBAMA: IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR TO HIM MOST OF AMERICA IS THEM. BUT HERE IS THE THING. LOOK AT US. WE ALL KNOW BETTER WHETHER WE ARE DEMOCRATS, REPUBLICANS, OR INDEPENDENTS WE UNDERSTAND AN ATTACK ON ANY OF US IS AN ATTACK ON ALL OF US.

TED SIMONS: POLLS SHOW CLINTON WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF WINNING THE STATE. THE ARIZONA OFFICE OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY REPORTS THE STATES' JOBLESS RATE IS DOWN SHOWING ARIZONA'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AT 5.5 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER AND THAT IS DOWN 3/10THS OF A PERCENT FROM AUGUST. AND LAST MONTH'S JOB GROWTH WAS 25,000 PLUS JOBS AND 4 11 ECONOMIC SECTORS ADDED JOBS WHILE SIX HAD LOSSES AND ONE WAS UNCHANGED. THE GOVERNMENT SECTOR INCLUDING SCHOOL EMPLOYEES LED THE WAY AND THE BIGGEST LOSS WAS MANUFACTURING MORE RESULTS RELEASED FROM THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC MORRISON CRONKITE NEWS POLL AND QUESTIONS ON THE SHERIFF'S RACE AND THE PROP 205. THE MORRISON INSTITUTUE'S JOE GARCIA IS HERE TO TALK ABOUT THIS. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE SURVEY WHEN WAS IT DONE? WHO WAS QUESTIONED?

JOE GARCIA: THIS WAS A STATE-WIDE SURVEY CONDUCTED OCTOBER 10TH THROUGH 15TH. SO THIS WAS AFTER THE SECOND PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE BEFORE THE THIRD ONE OBVIOUSLY SO WE CAN GET A GAUGE. THIS IS THE SECOND POLL WE HAVE DONE WITH THE ARIZONA REPUBLIC AND CRONKITE NEWS. SO WE KIND OF MEASURE WHERE ARIZONA IS AND WHERE WE'RE GOING.

TED SIMONS: YESTERDAY, WE HAD NUMBERS ON THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE SHOWING HILLARY CLINTON WAS LEADING BY SOME SOME-ODD POINTS.WE HAD RESULTS ON THE U-S SENATE RACE. MCCAIN HAD A HEALTHY 11.5 LEAD. TODAY WE'RE GOING TO GO DOWN THE BALLOT AND LOOK AT THE OTHER RACES. LET'S START WITH THE SHERIFF'S RACE IN MARICOPA COUNTY WITH JOE ARPAIO AND PAUL PENZONE. PENZONE WITH A SIGNIFICANT LEAD AND LOTS OF EYEBROWS ARE BEING RAISED.

JOE GARCIA: IT IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISING. 15 POINTS IS A GOOD CHUNK FOR ANYONE TO BE LEADING A CAMPAIGN ESPECIALLY WITH JOE ARPAIO WHO HELD THE SHERIFF POSITION FOR WHAT SEEMS LIKE FOREVER. WHAT IS INTERESTING ON THIS RACE IS YOU TALK ABOUT THE REPUBLICAN SUPPORT AND IT IS ONLY 50% WHEN IT COMES TO ARPAIO. PENZONE PICKS UP 37% OF THE REPUBLICAN VOTE. WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE WHITE VOTE, NON LATINO AND WHITE, 34.7% ARE GOING FOR ARPAIO AND 46% ARE GOING FOR PENZONE.

TED SIMONS: AND ALSO THE 21 PERCENT WE SEE ON THE SCREEN THAT ARE NOT SURE MEANS THERE IS STILL MOVEMENT THERE. BUT THAT IS A HEALTHY LEAD FOR PENZONE.

JOE GARCIA: YEAH, THERE IS. YOU KNOW, AS YOU MENTIONED THE LATINO VOTE, WHICH HAS THE VERY LARGE UNDECIDED AS WELL, ARPAIO GETS 20% STILL OF THE LATINO VOTE AND PENZONE IS AT 45%.

TED SIMONS: AS FAR AS APPROVAL RATINGS ARE CONCERNED... AGAIN, THIS IS MARICOPA COUNTY, AND ARPAIO'S UNFAVORABLE RATINGS ARE RELATIVELY STRONG OR RELATIVELY HIGH, I SHOULD SAY.

JOE GARCIA: THOSE WHO LIKE HIM ARE STICKING WITH HIM AND THOSE LOOKING AT THE RECENT DEVELOPMENTS INCLUDING A CRIMINAL CONTEMPT COURT CHARGE ARE PERHAPS MOVING AWAY FROM JOE ARPAIO.

TED SIMONS: STILL 50% UNFAVORABLE. THINGS HAVE CHANGED HAVEN'T THEY?

JOE GARCIA: YES, ABSOLUTELY.

TED SIMONS: WE HAVE A COUPLE MEASURES TO LOOK AT. DEBATING PROP 205 IN A SECOND. RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA. BUT AS FAR AS THE POLL IS CONCERNED ON THIS ONE OVER 50% IN FAVOR. LITTLE BIT SURPRISED BY THIS?

JOE GARCIA: NO, BECAUSE IT WAS ABOUT WHERE IT WAS IN AUGUST AS WELL. SO IT REALLY HASN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH. IT IS 8 POINTS LEADING IN FAVOR OF LEGALIZATION OF MARIJUANA. WHAT IS PERHAPS NOT SURPRISING IS LOOKING AT THE AGE AND WHEN YOU BREAK IT DOWN BY AGE THE YOUNGER YOU ARE THE MORE IN FAVOR YOU ARE OF LEGALIZING MARIJUANA.

TED SIMONS: VERY FEW UNDECIDED ON THIS.

JOE GARCIA: ABSOLUTELY. ONLY 8% FOR UNDECIDED.

TED SIMONS: PROP 206 IS RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE AND THIS ONE HAS MORE SUPPORT THAN LEGALIZING MARIJUANA. WHAT'S GOING ON HERE?

JOE GARCIA: 26 POINTS LEADING MINIMUM WAGE WHICH WOULD GO TO $12 PER HOUR BY 2020. IT SEEMS LIKE EVERYBODY THINKS THE PEOPLE WORKING IN ARIZONA WITH THE VERY TOUGH JOBS DESERVE A PAY RAISE AND PEOPLE MAKING MINIMUM WAGE CERTAINLY AGREE.

TED SIMONS: ARE YOU SEEING ANY GROUP OPPOSED THERE AT ALL WHEN YOU DIG DOWN?

JOE GARCIA: NOT REALLY IT IS ACROSS THE BOARD. EVEN BY AGES. THE MAJORITY ARE IN SUPPORT. BY COUNTY, RURAL ARIZONA, PIMA, MARICOPA, ALL IN SUPPORT. EVEN INCLUDING THE EDUCATIONAL LEVELS. THE ONLY ONE THAT FALLS SHORT IS 42% OF REPUBLICANS ARE IN FAVOR OF IT BUT DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS ARE VERY MUCH IN FAVOR.

TED SIMONS: 42% OF REPUBLICANS FAVOR AND EVEN THAT IS SURPRISING. A FAVORABILITY RATING ON THE LEGISLATURE WHICH IS INTERESTING. YOU WOULD THINK THE WAY YOU HEAR PEOPLE TALKING AND THE WAY IT IS REPORTED YOU WOULD THINK FOLKS WOULD THINK THE LEGISLATOR WAS OUT TO LUNCH. THE UNFAVORABLES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THE FAVORABLES. WHAT IS GOING ON HERE?

JOE GARCIA: THE INCUMBENT RACE IS PRETTY HIGH. IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE PEOPLE COMPLAINING.

TED SIMONS: 36% DON'T KNOW. DOES THAT MEAN THEY ARE JUST NOT PAYING ATTENTION? WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?

JOE GARCIA: WHEN IT COMES TO LOOKING AT THE BALLOT THESE OTHER HIGH PROFILE ISSUES ARE TAKING NOTICE. I THINK LEGISLATURES ARE SOMETHING PEOPLE LOOK AT A LITTLE LATER.

TED SIMONS: LET'S LOOK AT THE HOT BUTTON ISSUES AS FAR AS ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION. THE IDEA OF DEPORTING ALL UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS. IT LOOKS LIKE MOST FOLKS DON'T LIKE THAT IDEA IS THAT A SURPRISE TO YOU?

JOE GARCIA: NOT REALLY. I AM ALSO DIRECTOR OF THE LATINO PUBLIC POLICY CENTER AT MORRISON INSTITUTE AND I THINK THERE IS A FATIGUE WHEN IT COMES TO THE HARSH ANTI IMMIGRANT RHETORIC WE ARE HEARING. I THINK BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH SB 10-70, WE'VE SEEN WHERE THAT LEADS TO. DEPORT THEM ALL DOESN'T RESONATE LIKE IT ONCE DID.

TED SIMONS: MINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH MADE UP ON THIS ON AS WELL.

JOE GARCIA: AGAIN ACROSS THE BOARD. EVEN THE REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS THE MAJORITY OF THEM ARE SAYING YES, WE SHOULD NOT DEPORT THEM.

TED SIMONS: AND A SIMILAR ISSUE HERE. BUILDING A WALL BETWEEN THE U.S. AND MEXICO. YEARS PAST THIS WAS A BIG DEAL, A LOT OF FOLKS THINKING THIS WAS A GREAT IDEA… DOESN'T SEEM LIKE A LOT OF FOLKS THINK IT'S A GREAT IDEA ANYMORE. OVER 50% NOW ARE SAYING NO.

JOE GARCIA: 55% ARE SAYING NO AND WHAT'S INTERESTING IS 42% ARE SAYING DEFINITELY NO. IT IS NOT EVEN UP FOR DISCUSSION IF YOU WILL ON BUILDING THE WALL.

TED SIMONS: ARE YOU SURPRISED ON THAT? CONSIDERING HOW MANY POLITICIANS STILL RUN ON THAT IDEA?

JOE GARCIA: NOT REALLY BEING A BORDER TOWN I THINK WE KNOW THE RELATIONSHIPS BETTER AND WHEN IT COMES TO ECONOMICS AND CULTURE AND RELATIVES AND PEOPLE WITH MEXICO BUILDING THE WALL IS NOT THE ANSWER TO IMMIGRATION.

TED SIMONS: BIG STORY HERE IN THE PREVIOUS YEAR WAS DOES LAW ENFORCEMENT TREAT DIFFERENT ETHNIC GROUPS IN DIFFERENT WAYS. THE QUESTION WAS ASKED AND SPLIT HERE.

JOE GARCIA: YEAH. OBVIOUSLY IT DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU ARE AT. I THINK IT IS AS MUCH ECONOMIC AS IT IS BASED ON RACE OR ETHNICITY ON WHAT YOUR EXPERIENCE IS WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY RESEARCH AS WELL. I THINK IT BREAKS IT DOWN TO PERSONAL RELATIONSHIP AND PERSONAL EXCHANGE YOU HAD WITH LAW ENFORCEMENT. IT'S A VERY PERSONAL QUESTION.

TED SIMONS: YES AND INTERESTING IT WAS SKEWED ALMOST EVEN. NATIONAL SECURITY. THIS WAS CLOSE. DO YOU FEEL AS SAFE AS YOU DID TWO YEARS AGO AND MOST FOLKS SAYING NO. BUT A LOT OF FOLKS SAYING YES.

JOE GARCIA: YEAH, I THINK IT IS ALSO REGIONAL. IN ARIZONA WE HAVE A DIFFERENT FEELING THAN PERHAPS NEW YORK WHICH LOOKS AT THE THREAT OF TERRORISM ALL THE TIME WE ARE A LITTLE SHELTERED WHEN IT COMES TO TERRORISM AND NATIONAL SECURITY.

TED SIMONS: COUPLE HEALTH INSURANCE QUESTIONS. IS HEALTH INSURANCE BETTER THAN IT WAS FIVE YEARS AGO WAS THE QUESTION AND MOST FOLKS SAYING IT IS ABOUT THE SAME BUT NOT AS GOOD. IT WAS CERTAINLY AHEAD OF BETTER THERE.

JOE GARCIA: YOU LOOK AT THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT AND THE MENU OF CHOICES YOU HAVE. IF YOU LIVE IN SOME COUNTIES THERE ARE NO CHOICES. IT COMES DOWN TO WHAT IS AVAILABLE TO YOU AND ALL THE POLITICIANS WANT TO GET RID OF OR FIX IT BUT SOMETHING NEEDS TO BE ADDRESSED.

TED SIMONS: AS FAR AS THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT IS CONCERNED THAT WAS ASKED TOO AND A LOT OF FOLKS OPPOSED TO THIS THING STILL.

JOE GARCIA: WE HAVE ASKED SEVERAL QUESTIONS BEFORE THIS POLL. IT ALL COMES DOWN TO WHAT YOU ASK. IF YOU GIVE THE ELEMENTS OF THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT AND NOT MENTION OBAMACARE IT SCORES LOT HIGHER. SO DEPENDS ON TERMINOLOGY. SAME WITH COMMON CORE. IF YOU TALK ABOUT WHAT IS IN IT PEOPLE LIKE IT BUT YOU MENTION THE NAME COMMON CORE THEY HATE IT.

TED SIMONS: BEFORE YOU GO, THE ARIZONA JOB MARKET, LAST QUESTION ON THE SURVEY. WE JUST DID NUMBERS SHOWING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN ARIZONA DOWN A TICK AND JOB GAINS LOOKING RELATIVELY GOOD. THE FOLKS ARE THINKING IT IS ABOUT THE SAME.

JOE GARCIA: YOU LOOK AT JOB GROWTH BUT IT IS WHAT JOBS ARE GROWING. THAT IS IMPORTANT AND WHY YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE MINIMUM WAGE. PEOPLE ARE SAYING MANY JOBS IN ARIZONA ARE ON THE LOWER INCOME LEVEL. THEY THINK WE NEED A PAY RAISE FOR PEOPLE DOING COMMUNITY SERVICE ORIENTED JOBS.

TED SIMONS: GOOD STUFF. GOOD INFORMATION. GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE THANK YOU.

Joe Garcia of Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy

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