A super El Niño season is increasingly possible later in 2026, and that could have significant global impacts on rainfall and temperatures from summer through winter, as well as the 2026 hurricane season.
A stronger El Niño tends to produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in the Atlantic Basin, both of which are hostile to hurricanes. It also could mean a wetter winter, usually the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. A super El Niño could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough.
Randy Cerveny, a climatologist at ASU, joined “Arizona Horizon” to discuss the suspected weather possibilities and how they will impact global and regional climate.
“El Niño is when the Pacific Ocean gets warm, and when that happens, it changes the jet stream, it changes the circulation pattern, not around just the United States, but around the entire world,” Cerveny said. “A super El Niño is when the temperatures of the Pacific rise well above what we’re expecting.”
According to Cerveny, the last time a super El Niño occurred was back in 2015, when the country experienced more overall rainfall.
“It’s our wintertime jet streams that get really impacted by El Niño,” Cerveny discussed, “…this winter we’re even looking at having a fairly decent Western snowfall…next year looks like it’s going to be a lot better, but it’s even going to have an impact on our monsoon.”
According to Cerveny, hurricanes participate in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mexico more often under El Niño conditions than along the Atlantic.
“When those hurricanes form, they don’t usually get to us, but when they form their moisture…gets pumped up into Arizona,” Cerveny said, “…if we start seeing a whole bunch of hurricanes down off the coast of Mexico…having a better monsoon is going to be much, much better.”
