Journalists’ Roundtable: Democrats lead polls, election preview and more

It’s Friday, which means it’s time for the Journalists’ Roundtable, where we discuss Arizona politics. This week, “Arizona Horizon” host Ted Simons was joined by Dennis Welch of AZ Family (CBS5 News/ 3TV), Kiera Riley from Arizona Agenda and Capitol Media Services and Howie Fischer of Capitol Media Services.

The topics discussed this week included:

• New statewide polling from HighGround, Inc. showed Democrats leading in every major statewide race, though Republicans are slowly closing the gap
• Arizona’s 1st Congressional District leans left, straying away from its toss-up reputation
• Representative Andy Biggs (R) said late Turning Point co-founder Charlie Kirk recruited him to run for Arizona Governor; Turning Point USA has spent more than $18 million on Biggs’ campaign

Dennis Welch: “Good news and bad news in that poll for Andy Biggs. The good news is Hobbs’ lead has shrunk, but the bad news is that it’s still double digits at 12%. If you look at the poll, Democrats are sweeping statewide races right now. In the Attorney General’s race, Democrats are up 11%. The Secretary of State, Democrat Adrian Fontes, is up 11%. You can even get down to the Superintendent of Public Instruction and the Treasurer’s races; they’re still leading by single digits. If the first poll was stunning, this is still maybe not quite as stunning, but it’s still very surprising to see. Arizona, which I would contend and argue is still a very red state, with Democrats leading by such large numbers at this point in the race.”

Kiera Riley: “I think they’re getting more riled up, but it’s also not unexpected. These are areas they should be banking, but they’re not there yet.”

Howie Fischer: “Assuming everybody’s sampling method is the same, it’s not like you’re at 45% to 42% where the undecideds can make a difference. If you’re already at 51%, it doesn’t matter what the undecideds do. Part of what we don’t know is that we’ve seen Turning Point has gone out and is wrestling ballots. Will they get people to turn in those early ballots? The other fact is that Republicans tend to vote in larger numbers on election day, but I don’t know how many of them are going to be left on election day.”