Presidential Poll

Sept. 7, 2016

Transcript:

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TED SIMONS: COMING UP NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON" -- WE'LL HAVE THE RESULTS OF A NEW POLL ON THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN ARIZONA, ALSO TONIGHT, WE'LL LEARN ABOUT A LOCALLY DEVELOPED EDUCATION PROGRAM THAT'S CAUGHT THE EYE OF THE WHITE HOUSE. THOSE STORIES NEXT ON "ARIZONA HORIZON."

ANNOUNCER: "ARIZONA HORIZON" IS MADE POSSIBLE BY CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE FRIENDS OF ARIZONA PBS, MEMBERS OF YOUR PBS STATION. THANK YOU!

TED SIMONS: GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO "ARIZONA HORIZON." I'M TED SIMONS. A NEW POLL RELEASED TODAY SHOWS THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IS ARIZONA IS A VIRTUAL DEAD HEAT BETWEEN HILLARY CLINTON AND DONALD TRUMP. THE "ARIZONA REPUBLIC"/MORRISON "CRONKITE NEWS" POLL ALSO COVERS OTHER CANDIDATES AND ISSUES. JOINING US TO CRUNCH THE NUMBERS IS MORRISON INSTITUTE DIRECTOR, THOM REILLY.

THOM REILLY: THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

TED SIMONS: WE HAVE A LOT TO GO OVER, WHEN WAS THE POLL TAKEN.

THOM REILLY: IT WAS TAKEN BETWEEN AUGUST 17TH AND AUGUST 31ST. TARGETED 800 REGISTERED VOTERS ACROSS THE STATE OF ARIZONA.

TED SIMONS: OK, IS THAT IN MIND. IT'S -- I MEAN, THINGS CHANGE ON A DAILY BASIS. THAT WAS A SNAPSHOT FOR THAT TIME.

THOM REILLY: A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE PRIMARY AND A LITTLE BIT AFTER. IT COVERED --

TED SIMONS: AND TRUMP'S SPEECH, HAD HE GIVEN THE SPEECH OR WAS IT STILL BEING DONE?

THOM REILLY: HE HAD GIVEN IT, SO PART OF THE POLL WAS TAKEN EARLY ON.

TED SIMONS: INTERESTING.

THOM REILLY: AND KIND OF WAY OVER A PERIOD OF TIME.

TED SIMONS: PRESIDENTIAL RACE, LET'S GET TO IT. THIS THING IS A TOSS-UP, IS IT NOT?

THOM REILLY: IT IS, CLINTON SLIGHTLY IS AHEAD, BUT STATISTICALLY IT'S A DEAD HEAT. ABOUT A 3.1 MARGIN OF ERROR. BUT WHAT'S REMARKABLE ABOUT THIS IS THE LARGE NUMBER OF UNDECIDED.

TED SIMONS: YEAH.

THOM REILLY: JUST HIGH, 23%, IF YOU BREAK IT DOWN, WE HAD 29% FOR INDEPENDENT VOTERS.

TED SIMONS: THEY'RE ON THE FENCE OUT THERE, AREN'T THEY?

THOM REILLY: I THINK IF THERE'S A QUESTION WHETHER ARIZONA IS IN PLAY FOR THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THIS STATEWIDE POLL OF REGISTERED VOTERS -- THE REAL QUESTION IS HOW THE INDEPENDENT VOTERS ARE GOING TO VOTE AND WHICH WAY THEY'RE GOING TO GO AND WHO ARE THEY GOING TO DELIVER THE 11 ELECTORAL VOTES TO.

TED SIMONS: LETS TALK--LOOK AT THE FAVORABLES AND UNFAVORABLES FOR EACH CANDIDATE. HILLARY CLINTON, HER UNFAVORABLE AND FAVORABLES. AGAIN, THOSE ARE RELATIVELY EVEN FOR CLINTON AND TRUMP CORRECT?

THOM REILLY: IT IS. THE UNFAVORABLE FOR CLINTON WAS ABOUT 59%-- TRUMP 60%, TRUMPS VERY UNFAVORABLE WAS ABOUT 42.5, IS 2.5%, HILLARY CLINTON LITTLE LESS THEN 37.3.

TED SIMONS: WE'VE GOT TO SEE THE CLINTON NUMBER, IF WE CAN GET THE TRUMP NUMBERS THAT WOULD BE GREAT AS FAR AS FAVORABLE NUMBERS.

THOM REILLY: ABOUT THE SAME. ITS ABOUT 60 PERCENT. UNFAVORABLE FOR BOTH CANDIDATES.

TED SIMONS: ABOUT THE SAME.

TED SIMONS: 35% FAVORABLE. NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE NO OPINION OF DONALD TRUMP. THEY'VE GOT IT FIGURED OUT BY NOW, DON'T THEY.

THOM REILLY: OUR POLL IS REMARKABLE, THERE'S A LARGE PORTION OF INDEPENDENTS. PART OF THAT WAS THE WAY WE ASKED THE QUESTIONS. WE ASKED WHO THEY WERE PLANNING ON VOTING FOR, NOT WHO THEY ARE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR. WE ACTUALLY ASK ON HOW THEY MADE THEIR DECISION AT THIS POINT. A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ARIZONA VOTERS HAVE NOT MADE THEIR FINAL DECISION.

TED SIMONS: THE FAVORABLES AND UNFAVORABLE, THEY ARE RELATIVELY EVEN, AREN'T THEY?

THOM REILLY: THEY ARE.

TED SIMONS: AS FAR AS REGION--IM SORRY AS FAR AS EDUCATION IS CONCERNED. LOTS OF FOLKS, DONALD TRUMP, THE CLASSMATE CLASSIC STATEMENT, I LOVE THE UNEDUCATED. BUT THE FACT IS THOSE WITH HIGH SCHOOL OR LESS AS WE SEE FROM YOUR POLL, THEY LIKE HIM.

THOM REILLY: HIGH SCHOOL OR LESS. ALSO, WHETHER INDIVIDUALS HAD SOME COLLEGE. THEY TRAINED IT TOWARD -- TRENDED TOWARD TRUMP. THOSE WITH A BACHELOR'S DEGREE AND HIGHER TRENDED TOWARD CLINTON.

TED SIMONS: THIS ARE THE NUMBERS HERE FOR TRUMP'S SUPPORTERS. NOW, IF WE CAN SEE THE NUMBERS FOR THE CLINTON SUPPORTERS AS FAR AS EDUCATION IS CONCERNED. ITS ALMOST FLIP FLOPPED.

THOM REILLY: AND THAT MIRRORS A LOT OF NATIONAL POLLS TAKEN. MORE HIGHLY EDUCATED GO FOR CLINTON AND LESS FOR TRUMP.

TED SIMONS: NO REAL SURPRISES AS FAR AS YOU CAN SEE?

THOM REILLY: NOT ON THE EDUCATION LEVEL. SOME ON THE GENDER AND AGE, I THINK THEY ALSO MIRRORED SOME OF THE NATIONAL POLLS.

TED SIMONS: YEAH, THE MEN MORE FOR TRUMP.

THOM REILLY: AND WOMEN TRENDED MORE TOWARD --

TED SIMONS: SO THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE IS A TOSS-UP. THERE WE GO. THE POLL WAS TAKEN BEFORE WE COULD KNOW WHAT WAS GOING TO GO ON--REPUBLICAN RACE IS CONCERN. WE HE DON'T HAVE A HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUP BUT START WITH JOHN MCCAIN AND THEN WE'LL GO TO ANN KIRKPATRICK. AS FAR AS MCCAIN IS CONCERN, ANY SURPRISES AS FAR AS HIS APPROVAL RATINGS.

THOM REILLY: WELL, HIGH FAVORABLE. HE HOVERING ABOUT 50% FAVORABLE. 43.4% UNFAVORABLE. 11% VERY UNFAVORABLE. HE SEEMS TO HAVE THE MAJORITY OF STATE SUPPORT IN MARICOPA COUNTY. LESS SO IN PIMA. INTERESTING ENOUGH, THOUGH, HIS HIGHEST UNFAVORABLE IS ACTUALLY IN THE REST OF THE STATE. NOT IN PIMA. NOT IN MARICOPA COUNTY.

TED SIMONS: WE'LL GET TO THOSE NUMBERS IN A SECOND. MCCAIN APPROVAL RATING ABOUT 49 SOME ODD APPROVE. AS FAR AS ANN KIRKPATRICK IS CONCERNED, DO WE HAVE HERS? IF WE CAN GET TO HERS AND I THINK IT'S COMING UP RIGHT HERE.

THOM REILLY: HERS IS INTERESTING. WHAT WE HAVE IS ABOUT A 36% FAVORABLE RATING. ABOUT A 34% UNFAVORABLE BUT A REMARKABLE 30% EITHER CHOSE DON'T KNOW OR DIDN'T -- OR CHOSE NOT TO ANSWER. INDICATES PROBABLY A LARGE PORTION OF INDIVIDUALS THAT DON'T KNOW ANN KIRKPATRICK.

TED SIMONS: YES, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT HER CAMPAIGN HAS TO ADDRESS OR ELSE I GUESS YOU GO WITH -- YOU WOULD THINK YOU WOULD GO WITH THE FAMILIAR COMMODITY, CORRECT?

THOM REILLY: NOT SURPRISING, HER HIGHEST FAVORABLE IS IN PIMA COUNTY.

TED: YEAH, WE HAVE GRAPHICS. THE REGION AS FAR AS THE CANDIDATES -- START WITH MCCAIN, AS FAR AS THE REGIONS THAT ARE STRONGER FOR HIM. AND I WOULD IMAGINE MARICOPA COUNTY PRETTY STRONG.

THOM REILLY: MARICOPA COUNTY -- AND ALSO THE REST OF THE STATE, WE APPROPRIATELY PROTECT IT UP BETWEEN MARICOPA COUNTY AND PIMA AND LUMP U LUMPED EVERYONE ELSE TOGETHER. MARICOPA COUNTY, 54%. REST 43, PIMA ABOUT 34. HIGHEST UNFAVORABLE TENDS TO BE IN PIMA, BUT AS I MENTION BEFORE, VERY HIGH 17% IN THE REST OF THE STATEMENT.

TED SIMONS: YES, AS FAR AS ANN KIRKPATRICK'S APPROVAL RATING, I WOULD IMAGINE PIMA COUNTY WOULD BE STRONGEST.

THOM REILLY: YEAH, THIS IS NOT ANY SURPRISE THERE. BUT HER UNDECIDED WERE RELATIVELY THE SAME IN PIMA, MARICOPA AND THE REST OF THE STATE, OVER ABOUT 30 PERCENT. A LARGE PORTION OF THE POPULACE DON'T KNOW HER, HAVEN'T BEEN INTRODUCED TO HER AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING AS MORE PEOPLE ARE INTRODUCED TO ANN KIRKPATRICK, AND HAVE TO MAKE A DECISION BETWEEN HER AND SENATOR MCCAIN.

TED SIMONS: ANY SURPRISES FROM THAT CENTER MARCHES?

THOM REILLY: I THINK THE LARGE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO CHOSE NOT TO OR DIDN'T ANSWER ANN KIRKPATRICK WAS HIGH AT 30%.

TED SIMONS: LET'S GO TO SHERIFF JOE ARPAIO. I FOUND THIS FASCINATING AS FAR AS HIS UNFAVORABLE RATINGS. AND ONLY COUNTS IN MARICOPA COUNTY, I KNOW YOU HAVE STATE NUMBERS BUT WE'LL STICK TO MARICOPA COUNTY. WHO IS GOING TO VOTE HIM IN OR OUT. THE UNFAVORABLE RATINGS--

THOM REILLY: 57%.

TED SIMONS: YEAH, THAT'S HUGE.

THOM REILLY: IT WAS 54% STATEWIDE BUT 57% IN MARICOPA COUNTY AND GIVEN HOW HANDILY HE DEFEATED HIS OPPONENT IN THE PRIMARY, THAT NUMBER TO US WAS SURPRISING.

TED SIMONS: YEAH, WE DON'T HAVE ANYTHING FOR PAUL PENZONE AS YET. INDEPENDENTS OVER HALF SURVEYED UNFAVORABLE FOR JOE ARPAIO.

THOM REILLY: WE'LL REPEAT THIS POLL IN OCTOBER AND ASK ABOUT MCCAIN AND KIRKPATRICK AND ABOUT -- IT STRADDLED THE PRIMARY AND DIDN'T HAVE X THAT QUESTION THIS GO-ROUND.

TED SIMONS: MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION, STRAIGHT UP YES OR NO? UNDECIDED STILL -- LIKE 10% SOME ODD PERCENT UNDECIDED STILL OUT THERE BUT LOOK THAT THE, THAT SAYS YES TO POT.
THOM REILLY: IT'S INTERESTING, WE POLLED THIS ACTUALLY A YEAR AGO AND IT WAS ABOUT 45% FAVORED. SO SEEMS TO BE TRENDING UPWARDS A BIT. BUT THIS WAS ALSO A BIT SURPRISING THAT THERE WAS 50% IN FAVOR AND RELATIVELY SMALLER AMOUNT OF INDIVIDUALS WHO DIDN'T KNOW. SEEMED LIKE THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE ARE MAKING THEIR DECISION AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. BUT THE CAMPAIGNS STILL COMING FULL BLAST AND THOSE NUMBERS MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE BEFORE THE ELECTION.

TED SIMONS: DEEPER INTO THE WEEDS, YOUNGER VOTERS MORE IN FAVOR, SUPPORT SEEMED TO DECLINE --

THOM REILLY: YEAH, THE -- THE YOUNGER THE MORE SUPPORT. 66% OF THOSE UNDER THE AGE OF 35 IN IMPORTANT, DROPPED DOWN TO 52% --

TED SIMONS: AND MORE IN FAVOR, WOMEN.

THOM REILLY: MEN MORE IN FAVOR, WOMEN RIGHT.

TED SIMONS: AND DEMS MORE IN FAVOR THAN REPUBLICANS.

THOM REILLY: BUT INDEPENDENCE WE ARE ABOUT 53%.

TED SIMONS: THAT'S BIG.

THOM REILLY: A LARGER NUMBER OF INDEPENDENTS IN SUPPORT.

TED SIMONS: ANOTHER BIG ISSUE WAS MINIMUM WAGE AND THIS WAS A BIGGER MARGIN OF SUPPORT. WHEN YOU ASKED THE QUESTION -- THAT'S -- MINIMUM WAGE, WHEN YOU ASKED THE QUESTION ON THIS, DID YOU ASK -- HOW DID YOU ASK THIS? THE IDEA IT'S A GRADUAL INCREASE AND I IMAGINE THAT'S A FACTOR IN HOW PEOPLE RESPOND.

THOM REILLY: IT WAS AND WE ACTUALLY INCLUDED THOSE SPECIFIC INCREASES. WE HAVE MIRRORED THE BALLOT QUESTION. SPECIFICALLY WALKED THE RESPONDENT THROUGH THE ACTUAL INCREASES OVER THE YEARS.

TED SIMONS: YES, WE GOT $10 NEXT YEAR AND $12 IN 2020. THAT GRADUAL INCREASE, THAT'S A BIG IN FAVOR MARGIN.

THOM REILLY: 61% AGAIN, THOSE CAMPAIGNS COME INTO FULL SWING AFTER LABOR DAY NOW, AND THAT MIGHT CHANGE BUT THAT'S A HIGH FAVORABILITY RATING.

TED SIMONS: GOVERNOR DOUG DUCEY, AS FAR AS HIS FAVORABILITY RATING, HE'S THE GOVERNOR AND I UNDERSTAND HE'S RELATIVELY NEW AND EVERYTHING LIKE THAT, BUT DON'T KNOW OR REFUSED TO ANSWER, THAT'S A LOT FOR A SITTING GOVERNOR.

THOM REILLY: THAT COULD BE HOW WE ASKED THE QUESTION. WE ASKED THE QUESTION, WELL, ON FAVORABILITY, SPECIFICALLY HOW YOU FELT, NOT LIKELY FELT. SO BUT THE FACT HE HAD 20% UNDECIDED AND 44% IN FAVOR AND 37% UNFAVORABILITY RATING, THAT -- A LOT OF SUPPORT BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE PERHAPS NOT SURE.

TED SIMONS: BEFORE WE LET YOU GO, THERE'S A LOT OF NUMBERS AND IF ANYONE WANTS MORE INFORMATION, IT'S ONLINE AND THE REPUBLIC HAS IT TOO. HOW WAS THE POLL CONDUCTED? HOW WAS THIS ONE DONE? THIS IS MORE INVOLVED.

THOM REILLY: WE ACTUALLY POLLED REGISTERED VOTERS AND THEN WE ASKED WEIGHTED THOSE RESPONSES PROPORTIONALLY TOWARD AGE AND GENDER AND COUNTY. SO WE THINK THIS IS A MORE ACCURATE POLLING. THE CNN POLL RECENTLY CALLED HOUSEHOLDS UP AND ASKED THEM IF THEY WERE REGISTERED AND FROM THERE, THEY ASKED THEM THE POLL. WE SPECIFICALLY USED THE DATABASE OF REGISTERED VOTERS. IT WAS A MIX BETWEEN LAND LINE APPEARANCE CELLPHONE, SO WHATEVER NUMBER THEY PLACED ON THEIR VOTING REGISTRATION AND THE 29 QUESTIONS YOU INDICATED WAS LENGTHY WAS ALSO AVAILABLE IN SPANISH TOO. AND WE HAD DIFFERENT WEIGHTING AND DIFFERENT MARGINS PER QUESTIONS BASED ON THOSE WHO ANSWERED.

TED SIMONS: AS FAR AS THE FAVORABILITY AND UNFAVORABILITY FOR TRUMP, HISPANIC, 77% UNFAVORABLE TOWARD HIM IN ARIZONA, NO SURPRISE THERE?

THOM REILLY: WELL, IF YOU READ THE NATIONAL NEWS STORIES, IT'S NOT A SURPRISE. SEEMS TO BE TRENDING.

TED SIMONS: BEFORE YOU GO, THE NEXT POLL WILL BE --

THOM REILLY: WE'RE GOING TO REPEAT THE POLL IN THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. ADDING A COUPLE OF NEW QUESTIONS, ONE WILL ASK SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE RACE BETWEEN MCCAIN AND KIRKPATRICK. FAVORABILITY NOW, AND THE OTHER ONE ASK SPECIFICALLY ABOUT THE RACE FOR MARICOPA COUNTY SHERIFF.

TED SIMONS:: MORE HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS. GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE.

THOM REILLY: THANKS FOR HAVING ME.

TED: YOU BETCHA.