state of the Union Analysis

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Join HORIZON for an analysis of President Bush’s State of the Union Address with local political consultants Fred Duval and Wes Gullett.

Michael Grant:
Tonight on Horizon, how is Arizona reacting to the president' s state of the union address? We'll talk with a couple of leading political analysts and get their take on the speech. This one's in Scottsdale with retiring supreme court justice secretary of state Sandra Day O'Connor. Those stories next on Horizon. Good evening and welcome to Horizon. I'm Michael Grant. Former Arizona governor Sam Goddard died this morning. He was the state's 12th governor. He was elected in 1964. He served one two-year term, loosing to republican Jack Williams in 1966. He is the father of attorney general Terry Goddard. He was 86. President Bush took to the road today speaking at the Grand ole Opry in Nashville one day after his State of the Union speech. Last night he painted democrats as defeatist for criticizing their role in the war in Iraq. He hopes to take charge of the agenda during this mid-term election season. With us tonight republican political consultant, Wes Gullet and democratic consultant Fred Duvall. Both fine fellas, hail and hearty men. Hi, guys, welcome back.

Michael Grant:
You know, Fred, last year at this time the buzz was all spending political capital, big boost under the election results obviously in 2004. Seemed to me last night was more about conserving political capital. Do you read it the same way?

Fred Duvall:
I did. I thought it was sort of bush-like. Honey, I shrunk the presidency. Reagan proposes reinventing democracy in Europe. Bush in another state of the union talks about reinventing social security. I read it as though the moment has changed, to use a bad metaphor. This presidency is sort of running out of gas. I thought that the reach of the speech in terms of policy proposals reflected that.

Michael Grant:
Wes, what did you think?

Michael Grant: It seemed to me to have sort of a trim your sails sort of thing.

Wes Gullet: I think the president was reassuring his base of support that there was resolve for the war in Iraq and we were not going to retreat. He said that several times. We're going to win. We're going to follow through with our word. That's the honorable thing to do. Those were messages to the core of the Republican party. Then he switched gears a little bit on the domestic side and started talking about healthcare and education and immigration reform that are issues that he thinks are going to be his legacy issues. So he's shifting into that 2 year legacy building period that the presidents go through in the 6th and 7th years of their presidency.

Michael Grant:
Last year he promised sweeping social security reform. This year we get a commission which we're now up to 133 commissions, I think, studying social security and Medicare and medicaid. Wouldn't we just take the last report off the shelf?

Wes Gullet:
For an oil man from Texas it was pretty good to hear that he was looking to the future and to trim our sails, I suppose, on our reliance on foreign oil. That was a bold stroke. I think that no one expected it. I think that the democrats are making a mistake by not embracing it because it's a great idea and something we have to do as a country. I think the president did grab a hold of one key issue people are concerned about.

Michael Grant:
Immigration reform was given pretty short shrift. It came out to about 30 seconds or so. A couple ways to read that. The president is so confident congress is going to do something about it he doesn't want to take about it anymore. The other is nothing is going to happen and he doesn't want to the waste time. Do you lean toward one of the other?

Fred Duvall:
I wish it was because there is a strategy. This is the moment to really move on this issue. It's going to take presidential leadership to get it done. He needed a check in the box in the speech and that's all he did. I think it's sort of a head fake. I don't think they're going to put political capital in this for one reason. The president in beautiful words said history is made by those who demonstrate courage when faced with choices. I think the test is if he's got the courage to take on both the left and the right to get a comprehensive, centrist immigration plan. I don't think it's going to happen.

Michael Grant:
Wes, one of the things that I have always found politically curious about this is that number one, president bush, former governor of the state of Texas, one of the states most impacted. Number 2, I'll take a wild guess here and say if you put at least the house membership of Texas, new Mexico, Arizona and I guess most importantly California together, I think you've got about 20% of the votes in the house. And this thing just -- it just doesn't move. Coupled with the fact that it has become a larger national issue than just a four-border issue but it continues to languish.

Wes Gullet:
It's a huge issue for the entire congress. But the problem; we can't even get our Arizona delegation to agree on a policy to solve the problem or to deal with it in a true fashion. So it's a very hard issue. I think that he brought it up because he still has it on the agenda. I think it's going to stay on the agenda. I think there's going to be tough battles on immigration. But I am very hopeful that we have to get something done. We have to have some kind of meaningful reform. We have to send a message both to the immigrants who are here, their families, those who want to come here and to our economy. One of the key things he said earlier in the speech was, this economy can't run without immigrants. We need immigrants. We need immigration in this country to make our economy the strongest one in the world. And I think that that's a truism that republicans are going to have to embrace and they should start doing it right away.

Fred Duvall:
Wes earlier spoke about the renewable energy issue. Democrats will embrace the president if he's serious. He's addressed renewable energies in different forms, hydrogen and so fort in prior states of the union and then the energy bill has gone forward, the alternate language has been stripped out and the language for the oil companies have been put in. The rhetoric and performance have not been in alignment. If he's serious this time, democrats will certainly embrace that.

Michael Grant:
In fact, one of the sound bites that we've got from the speech is on the president pressing that we want to reduce our dependence on foreign oil. So let's run that portion of the president's speech.

George W. Bush:
Keeping America competitive requires affordable energy. And here we have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil which is often imported from unstable parts of the world. The best way to break this addiction is through technology. Since 2001 we have spent nearly $10 billion to develop cleaner, cheaper and more reliable alternative energy sources. And we are on the threshold of incredible advances. So tonight I announce the advanced energy initiative, a 22% increase in clean energy research at the department of energy to push for breakthroughs in two vital areas. To change how we fuel our homes and offices, we will invest more in clean, safe, nuclear energy and solar energy.

Michael Grant:
Interesting that the president from Texas talking about, you know, let's wean ourselves off oil.

Wes Gullet: Well, it's good news. Because we have to. There's a lot of issues that go with our energy consumption. And one of the main ones is the impact is has on the environment. We live it every day here in phoenix. And we're impacted by it in a host of other ways. And we have to do it. So we have to start somewhere. Fred says he talked about it maybe the third time is the charm. I think his emphasis on it this time and putting some benchmarks in his speech about where we need to be was Kennedy-esque in that it reached for the moon. Energy independence is like a moon shot. It's going to be a tough thing to do but we have to do it to prove we're the greatest country in the world.

Michael Grant:
Let's not forget this is obviously an election year. Is the kind of thing that really galvanizes America?

Wes Gullet:
Yes.

Michael Grant:
I remember President Kennedy saying committing to this decade, going to the moon and safely returning to earth. Do you think it's in that category?

Fred Duvall:
I think it is the right moment. The combination of gas prices being an all-time high, being involved in a war in the middle east that has implications, the fight over a war, an oil man as the president. It's Clinton doing welfare reform, Nixon going to china. This president could do a bipartisan, big agenda on renewable energy. But I recall back this president running for president against Gore, humiliated Al Gore for what he said about needing to transition off petroleum-based engines. I hope he has really founded this time and beliefs it because we need his leadership.

Michael Grant:
I think he also had a line about inventing the internet.

Fred Duvall:
There you go.

Michael Grant: One of the other things of course that the president touched on was the war in Iraq. No secret that his approval ratings have shrunk certainly in large part attributable to that. Let's take a look at what the president had to say about staying the course in the war in Iraq.

George W. Bush:
We're on the offensive in Iraq with a clear plan for victory. First we're helping Iraqis build an inclusive government so that old resentments will be eased and that the insurgency will be marginal leased. Secondly we're continuing reconstruction efforts in helping the Iraqi government to fight corruption and build a modern economy. Third we're striking terrorist targets while we train Iraqi forces that are increasingly capable of defeating the enemy. Iraqis are showing their courage every day. And we are proud to be their allies in the cause of freedom.

Michael Grant:
Wes, the president obviously has changed court significantly trying to I think rally the support or at least not hemorrhage any more support on the war in Iraq. Did he stress enough the getting outside of the equation?

Wes Gullet:
I think he talked about finishing the job. And he spent a lot of time doing it. He spent half of the speech talking about the reasons why we have to finish the job, that it's courage us to finish what you say you're going to do, that we can't retreat. And what the president was trying to do, I think, it wasn't delivered in a churchillian way but it was in the way he addressed it. We have to have resolve. We have to win. Because if we don't win this war they're going to bring the war to us. I think he made a powerful case especially to the people who support him and support the republicans in the congress.

Michael Grant:
He was playing the base?

Wes Gullet:
Sure. To paraphrase Roosevelt, all we have to use is fear itself. I think going to the terrorist, war on terror is the strong suit for this president. It was in '02, it was in '04. They're going to try to dust that off. I believe the president is genuine about this but it's their strong card politically and what they're trying do is get position for the mid-term elections with this message. The president doesn't have the same confidence level. There's not a trust in the way this war is being pursued. Mostly the president's diagnosis is right when he says America cannot be isolationist. I think America understands the way this war has been conducted has left us more isolated than ever before.

Michael Grant:
What's the best strategy to win in November?

Wes Gullet:
If I'm running a republican campaign in Arizona, I'm running fully behind John McCain. And John McCain is with the president on the war. There's no question about it. So I'm with John McCain. That's where I am if I'm a republican running for re-election or election in Arizona. And we need to win this war and we need to take out the bad guys.

Michael Grant:
Let's just say, Fred, illustratively, let's say you're running some democrat's campaign for United States senate. How do you position yourself on that or your candidate on that particular issue?

Fred Duvall:
First I think that you've got to make a case that we must be candid with the American public as to what's working and what's not. Get away from the spin. Let's talk about the facts. The erosion of confidence has a lot to do with the fact people don't trust the information they're getting. Second, we've got to make a more rapid transition so that Iraqis can be in charge of their own destiny and not American soldiers for the long-term and start bringing the soldiers home. As quickly as we can. Making sure that we help Iraq transition safely to a stable future.

Michael Grant:
So take a fairly conservative approach on both sides. At least in the state of Arizona. Are you guys in agreement?

Fred Duvall: I would say the big point of differentiation is the necessity on conducting a war on terror globally. You can't do it by yourself unless we rebuild alliances that helps us make this a global war on terror. That's one of the weaknesses of the way this president has conducted the war.

Michael Grant:
The president also talked about making the tax cuts permanent. And let's take a look at what the president had to say on that subject.

George W. Bush:
Keeping America competitive begins with keeping our economy growing. And our economy grows when Americans have more of their own money to spend, save and invest. In the last five years, the tax relief you passed has left $880 billion in the hands of American workers, investors, small businesses and families to help produce more than four years of uninterrupted economic growth.
Yet the tax relief is set to expire in the next few years. If we do nothing, American families will face a massive tax increase. They do not expect and will not welcome. Because America needs more than a temporary expansion we need more than temporary tax relief. I urge the congress to act responsibly and make the tax cuts permanent.

Michael Grant:
Another one, Wes, as you pointed out where I think obviously the president not only going back to the base but let's face it a republican president talking about tax cuts is pretty safe territory.

Wes Gullet:
Yes. It's good territory for the president to be on. And the picture that we saw just now of the democrats sitting on their hands when we were talking about tax cuts, when the democrats stood up and cheered about defeating social security, it showed that the democrats, I think, that the democrats are obstructionists. Newt Gingrich said last night in one of the comments was that the democrats ought to embrace some of these ideas. John Kennedy saw that tax cuts worked. Ronald Reagan saw that tax cuts worked. George Bush has seen that tax cuts work. Tax cuts actually work. So making them permanent is going to fuel this economy. I think the president also did a nice job on saying that America is a global leader and we need to stay a global leader and this is one of the ways we do to.

Michael Grant:
Fred, what do you think?

Fred Duvall:


These particular tax cuts haven't worked. They've been geared toward the top 1% of American wage earners, we have the smallest job growth since world war ii and we've gone from a $285 billion surplus at the end of the Clinton administration to a $285 billion deficit at a time when I think a very important part of this speech was that America has to be more competitive in the world and we can't be more competitive if we're not growing jobs and if our debt is being owned by Chinese debt-holders going into the future. This is the wrong tax cut at the wrong time.

Michael Grant:
Chinese got a lot of capital. Fred Duvall, thanks very much for being here. Wes Gullet, appreciate the input.

Michael Grant:
Only one day after her retirement which came after Samuel Alito was sworn in as the newest justice of the United States Supreme Court Sandra Day O'Connor spoke today to a rapt audience. The former justice autographed copies of her book, "Lazy B" and spoke about that experience of growing up on an Arizona ranch. She also made the point that the court's character is comprised of the individual personalities on the bench.

Sandra Day O'Connor:
I had a wonderful colleague on the court. His name was Byron White. Remember him? Yes. He was the first and perhaps only ever member of the Supreme Court to have been a professional athlete. He was a professional football player. He had played for Colorado and was a star in college. And then he played professionally to help put himself through law school. In those days the pros didn't earn very much. But he did manage to put himself through law school. Then he got drafted in World War II and he was in the navy and he was quite a little hero. And that's how he met or how he and John F. Kennedy met. It was during the navy and those perilous times. That's how he ended up on the Supreme Court was because of his personal acquaintance with president Kennedy. And Byron White was a marvelous man. And he used to go up to the gym, which is the space above the courtroom? There is space. And the law clerks and Byron white would use it to play basketball. And every year some of these law clerks would come back injured. My first day on the Supreme Court when I was sworn in September of 1981, I went back to the room where all of the justices meet each time before we go on the bench to shake hands. And in those days I wore a ring on this finger. And I came to Justice White and we shook hands. And I thought I was going to die right on the spot. I mean, he had no idea how strong he was. My hand was pulverized. Have you ever had somebody do that to you with a ring on? Wait until you have somebody like Byron White do it. And I just couldn't bear it because my first day on the court, here were the tears streaming down. "Glad to meet you, Justice White." So anyway, Byron White told me that when you have a new justice on the court, you don't just have a new justice you have a new court. So we certainly have a new court now. We have a new chief justice and a new associate justice and it's a new court. So we'll all have to sit and see how all that plays out.

Michael Grant:
Justice O'Connor also talked about the difficulty she had as a woman getting a job as an attorney out of Stanford law school.

Sandra Day O'Connor:
I could not get a single interview with a law firm in California because I was female. They had all these notices on the placement board at Stanford law school. Come talk to us. We want to talk to you. They didn't want to talk to me. I finally asked a young woman friend of mine from undergraduate days in Stanford whose father was a senior partner in a firm if he could get me an interview with a firm. She asked him and he did and I went to have an interview with a partner who did that. We had a pleasant visit. And no too long and he said, "Miss Day, how do you type?" and I said "I'm medium. I could get by." "Well, if you could type well enough I might be able to get you along as a legal secretary. But Miss Day, we've never hired a woman lawyer and I don't see the day when we will." so that was the best I could get. And I heard that the district attorney in San Mateo, California, Redwood City had once had a woman lawyer on his staff. And I thought, well, if he had one he could maybe hire another. And I went to see him. And you know how politicians are. They tend to be very pleasant and nice and he was. And "Oh, Miss Day, I'm glad to meet you. You have a fine record. It would be wonderful to have you here in my office. But I have no funding for another deputy. And I don't have an office." he walked me around the office. And sure enough, there wasn't any vacant space. And I still thought that was my best bet. So I went back to the Lazy B ranch because John and I were planning our wedding there in December. And I wrote him a long letter and gave him all the reasons why I thought he should have me in his office. And all the ways that I thought I could be helpful. And I said, "Now, I know you don't have any money. But I could work there for nothing for a time until you can persuade the supervisors to give you a little money. And I know you don't have any space but I met your secretary and she's wonderful. And if she'd let me have a desk in her office, I'd be glad to sit there." and he went for it. And that's how I got in the door. And I hadn't been there very long until he was appointed judge for the County of San Mateo County. So he had to move up and out. And my supervisor was made the district attorney. And that opened space and money and everything was lovely. So that was how I got a foot in the door.

Michael Grant:
Sandra Day O'Connor's entire speech will be shown on 8 this summer as part of the 2006 Barry M. Goldwater lecture series.

Producer:
Governor Napolitano with the state legislature continue their battle over funding for English learner programs as the fines against the state for not solving the problem continue to mount. Hear from the governor on the issue. Plus we'll tell you about one of the valley's greatest civil rights leaders. That's Thursday at 7 on channel 8 Horizon program.

Michael Grant:
Thanks very much for joining us this evening. I'm Michael Grant. Have a great one. Good night.

Wes Gullett:Republican political consultant;Fred Duvall:Democratic consultant;

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