While most Americans are focused on summer vacations, backyard barbecues, and staying cool in the heat, retailers are already thinking about Christmas. Import volumes at major ports such as Los Angeles and Long Beach have surged compared with a year ago, suggesting retailers are stocking shelves in anticipation of healthy consumer demand.
Adding a layer of complexity this year is the growing influence of artificial intelligence. Retailers are increasingly relying on AI-powered forecasting tools to predict consumer behavior, manage inventory and navigate uncertainty created by tariffs, geopolitical tensions and fluctuating transportation costs. For many industry observers, this holiday season could serve as the first true test of whether AI can outperform traditional forecasting methods at scale.
Hitendra Chartuvedi, Professor of Practice at the W. P. Carey School of Business at ASU, joined “Arizona Horizon” to explain the process.
Although it is months away from what could be perceived as the typical “holiday season”, Chaturvedi said that retailers are already thinking about it now in the heat of summer.
AI is playing a role in how these different retailers are planning out how they are ordering their goods from other countries and suppliers.
“AI this year, interestingly, is not only advising on demand forecast, but also becoming a risk mitigator for the retailers. What it’s saying is, what if something happened in the Strait of Hormuz? What if something happened with tariffs? Let’s buy it early,” Chaturvedi.
Chaturvedi that the use of AI by these retailers is mainly to forecast how much inventory they need to purchase earlier on in the year. Seeing how much retailers import in the months leading up to the holiday season could be an indicator of how it will go, according to Chaturvedi.
“The biggest number you need to watch is when you start to see the port numbers for L.A., and see if September goes up. This means retailers have confidence in the Christmas holiday season. If the numbers are down, then we are not going to have a happy Christmas,” Chaturvedi said.
