Election Review

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Election Review
Hear from political analysts Stan Barnes, founder and president of Copper State Consulting and consultant John Loredo, as they review election results from the 2016 general election.

GOOD EVENING AND WELCOME TO "ARIZONA HORIZON." I'M TED SIMONS. YESTERDAY'S ELECTION IS IN THE BOOKS, WITH RESULTS THAT CAUGHT MANY OFF GUARD, BUT AT OFFICIAL WATCH PARTIES IN DOWNTOWN PHOENIX THE REACTION WAS MET WITH A COMMITMENT TO MOVE FORWARD.
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I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE INTERESTING TO WORK WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP. I HAVE MY AGENDA OF ISSUES I WANT TO WORK ON. I KNOW HE HAS GIVEN A SET OF POLICY ISSUES AND HE'S LISTED THEM THAT COINCIDE WITH SOME OF MY ISSUES, EVERYTHING FROM REGULATORY AND TAX REFORM. I'M EXCITED. I'M HOPING HE WILL DO EVERYTHING HE SAID HE WILL DO.

LET ME JUST SAY THIS, IF GOD DOES GIVE US A VICTORY TONIGHT, I PRAY ALL OF US WILL BE DEDICATED TO MAKING SURE WE USE IT TO BRING THIS COUNTRY BACK FROM THE BRINK.

I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT FOR REPUBLICANS THAT WIN TONIGHT TO SEE THAT NATIONALLY, WE ARE A PARTY FOR EVERYONE. IT'S A CHALLENGE TO UNIFY THE PARTY IN A METHOD TO CARRY NATIONALLY.

I LOVE ARIZONA. I BELIEVE IN ARIZONA. THIS IS NOT THE END. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINNING. LET'S DO IT. THANK YOU. [APPLAUSE ]
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TED SIMONS: HERE NOW TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT LAST NIGHT'S RESULTS AND WHAT THEY MEAN FOR THE STATE AND THE COUNTRY: STAN BARNES, FOUNDER AND PRESIDENT OF COPPER STATE CONSULTING AND POLITICAL CONSULTANT JOHN LOREDO. GOOD TO HAVE YOU BOTH HERE. THANKS FOR JOINING US.
JOHN LOREDO & STAN BARNES: GOOD TO BE HERE.
TED SIMONS: LET'S TAKE A 30,000-FOOT VIEW AND CRASH LAND AS WE SEE FIT. WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT?

STAN BARNES: WE ARE ALL PRIVILEGED TO BE LIVING IN A MOMENT OF NATIONAL HISTORY THAT WILL BE READ FROM NOW UNTIL THE END OF TIME PERHAPS, THAT'S A BIG BOAST. THERE IS A LOT OF HYPERBOLE GOING AROUND, BUT THIS WAS TRULY HISTORIC, AN EARTHQUAKE, AND PERHAPS THE GREATEST UPSET IN AMERICAN POLITICS. EVERYONE HAS THEIR OWN MONDAY MORNING QUARTERBACK ON THE THING, BUT I BELIEVE IT WASN'T LEFT VERSUS RIGHT OR EVEN OUTSIDER VERSUS INSIDER. IT WAS A CULTURAL CLASH WHERE THE HOLLYWOOD ELITE, GOVERNING CLASS WERE AGAINST AN UNLIKELY BILLIONAIRE WHO CONNECTED WITH WORKING MEN AND WOMEN AND SPOKE THEIR LANGUAGE AND THAT'S WHAT PLAYED OUT.

TED SIMONS: WHAT DID YOU SEE PLAYING OUT LAST NIGHT?

JOHN LOREDO: HARD TO TELL. I BELIEVE THIS WILL BE THE MOST STUDIED ELECTION EVER. I THINK THERE WILL BE MORE MONEY PUT INTO FIGURING OUT WHAT HAPPENED THAN ACTUALLY PUTTING INTO PULLING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN. I THINK IT WAS A MIX OF A WHOLE BUNCH OF DIFFERENT THINGS. WHEN YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THE DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF THE ELECTORATE WITH TRUMP AND WHO WEREN'T, THEY ARE DIFFERENT GROUPS OF PEOPLE. FROM A DEMOCRATIC POINT OF VIEW, LATINO POINT OF VIEW, IT'S SCARY. THERE WERE A LOT OF ISSUES PLAYING OUT. THE OPEN RACISM IS PRETTY SHOCKING AND PRETTY TERRIFYING, QUITE FRANKLY. I THINK EVERYBODY IS REALLY BUCKLED DOWN FOR A ROUGH FOUR YEARS ON OUR SIDE.

TED SIMONS: AS FAR AS WHERE WE GO FROM HERE, I WAS SET WITH MY QUESTIONS TO REPUBLICANS ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS TO THE PARTY NOW? HOW ARE YOU GOING TO FIX WHAT'S BROKEN? WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN NOW WITH A PARTY THAT HAS A PRESIDENT, HAS CONGRESS, WILL HAVE A SUPREME COURT CHOICE, ROLLING IN CLOVER HERE.

STAN BARNES: WHEN I HEARD PAUL RYAN SPEAK, I THOUGHT THESE GUYS MIGHT END UP GETTING ALONG, WHICH IS A BIG STATEMENT FOR ANY EXECUTIVE AND LEGISLATIVE BRANCH. TRUMP ISN'T A REPUBLICAN. HE'S AN INDEPENDENT. HE WILL DO WHAT HE WANTS TO DO AND HE WILL FIND OUT THAT HE CANT DO EVERYTHING. HE NEEDS TO WORK WITH THE REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP, BUT IT SEEMED TO ME, GIVEN TRUMP'S -- REALLY WELL DELIVERED VICTORY SPEECH, WHAT PAUL RYAN SAID TODAY HOW THE FORMER PRESIDENTS CALLED TRUMP, THE FORMER NOMINEES CALLED TRUMP, IT FELT LIKE THE PARTY WAS HEALING THEMSELVES UP RIGHT THERE.

TED SIMONS: WHAT ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? DAY AFTER?

JOHN LOREDO: A LOT OF SHOCK. THERE ARE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS WELL. THERE ARE. I THINK YOU WILL FIND A LOT OF PEOPLE LOOKING AT THE PARTY AND THINKING THERE NEED TO BE BIG, DEEP CHANGES WITHIN THE PARTY MOVING FORWARD.

TED SIMONS: DOES THE PARTY MOVE FURTHER LEFT? THERE ARE A TON OF REAGAN DEMOCRATS THAT BECAME TRUMP DEMOCRATS LAST NIGHT. WHAT DOES THE PARTY DO?

JOHN LOREDO: THE PARTY NEEDS TO BE MORE POPULOUS. IT NEEDS TO EMBRACE THE ISSUES THAT MATTER TO THE AMERICANS BUT ALSO THAT THE PARTY HAS TO RECOGNIZE WHO IS CHANGING THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY. LATINOS AND PEOPLE OF COLOR ARE BECOMING A BIGGER PIECE OF THE PIE IN DEMOCRATIC POLITICS BUT REPRESENT A SMALL PIECE OF THE PEOPLE RUNNING THE PARTY.

STAN BARNES: IT'S INTERESTING TO ME THAT HILLARY UNDERPERFORMED BARACK OBAMA IN THE MINORITY VOTE, BLACK VOTER, BROWN VOTER AND THE ASIAN VOTERS. THERE IS A MEANING THERE. HER THE CANDIDATE, I THINK IS WHAT IT PROBABLY IS.

TED SIMONS: HER GENDER?

STAN BARNES: I DON'T THINK SO. THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN ON THE MARGIN, BUT I THINK IT WAS HER IMPERFECTIONS AS A CANDIDATE AND THE LACK OF ENTHUSIASM THAT HAUNTED HER FROM THE MOMENT SHE GOT IN ALMOST BEAT BY A SOCIALIST GUY. TRUMP NEVER WANED AND DID AS WELL WITH THE LATINO VOTERS AS ROMNEY DID AND WITH THE BLACK VOTE. TRUMP PUT TOGETHER HIS OWN COALITION. HE WON COUNTIES IN OHIO THAT OBAMA WON BY 60%.

TED SIMONS: AT THE ARIZONA RACE, AS FAR AS GENDER FACTOR, DID YOU SEE THOSE AT PLAY IN THIS ELECTION?

JOHN LOREDO: I THINK ARIZONA IS DIFFERENT THAN THE COUNTRY AT LARGE. WHAT HAPPENED HERE IS DIFFERENT. THE RACE IS -- THERE ARE 670,000 PROVISIONAL BALLOTS LEFT OUTSTANDING. THOSE ARE GOING TO BREAK LEFT AND TRUMP WILL ONLY HAVE WON BY A FEW PERCENTAGE POINTS. THAT IS NOT GOOD NEWS FOR THE DEMOCRATIC OR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IN ARIZONA BECAUSE THAT GOES AGAINST THE TREND NATIONALLY. THAT'S A BIG ISSUE. IT'S BIG FOR DEMOCRAT ON OUR SIDE TO HAVE MADE PROGRESS, AND A VARIETY OF RACES. IT WAS NOT A BAD NIGHT FOR DEMOCRATS.

TED SIMONS: DO YOU AGREE WITH THAT?

STAN BARNES: NO. I DON'T AGREE WITH IT. IT WAS A GOOD NIGHT FOR REPUBLICANS ALL THE WAY AROUND. THEY HELD THE U.S. SENATE. THEY HELD THE HOUSE. THEY HAVE THE PRESIDENCY. WE IN ARIZONA AS REPUBLICANS MAINTAINED OUR POSITION IN THE STATE SENATE. WE MIGHT HAVE LOST A SINGLE HOUSE SEAT. OUR CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION STAYED IN THE 5-4 BALANCE. IT WASN'T A GOOD NIGHT FOR DEMOCRATS.

TED SIMONS: LET'S LOOK AT THE SENATE RACE, JOHN MCCAIN AND ANNE KIRKPATRICK. WHAT HAPPENED HERE? THERE WERE NOT AS MANY COAT TAILS FROM HILARY CLINTON AS EXPECTED, BUT WHAT HAPPENED?

JOHN LOREDO: NATIONAL MONEY DIDN'T PLAY HERE THAT WAS NEEDED TO WIN. UNLESS YOU HAVE THAT MONEY AND YOU DO ALL OF THE THINGS YOU NEED TO DO, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE A CLOSE RACE. SHE FELL BEHIND EARLY AND WASN'T ABLE TO CATCH UP.

TED SIMONS: AS FAR AS MARICOPA COUNTY, WE HAVE A NEW SHERIFF IN TOWN. FINALLY SOMEONE DEFEATED SHERIFF AIRAPAIO. THIS WASN'T EVEN CLOSE.

STAN BARNES: IT WASN'T. IM REALLY PROUD OF PAUL PENZO I HAVE HIGH EXPECTATIONS FOR HIM. HE HAS DONE HIMSELF WELL. HE TRAVERSED DIFFICULT GROUND. HE TOOK ON A FIGURE WITH $10 MILLION TO SMEAR HIM. IT'S HIS COURAGE AND WILLINGNESS TO FIGHT AND THE FATIGUE, MY PARTY, THE REPUBLICAN PARTY HAD WITH SHERIFF JOE WHO IS JOKE SAYS IS NOW A REGULAR JOE. THE FATIGUE UNDERCUT HIM.

TED SIMONS: FATIGUE AND A CONCERTED EFFORT. WHY DID THE EFFORT SUCCEED?

JOHN LOREDO: THERE ARE 150,000 NEW LATINO REGISTRATIONS IN ARIZONA, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THEM IN MARICOPA COUNTY. THERE WAS THE BIGGEST FIELD CAMPAIGN IN HISTORY ON THE GROUND IN MARICOPA COUNTY THE GETTING LATINOS OUT TO VOTE. THEY VOTED IN RECORDS. EVERY MONTH IN MARICOPA COUNTY 2,000 LATINOS TURN VOTING AGE EVERY MONTH. THAT'S GOING TO GET BIGGER. THAT EFFORT COMBINED WITH EVERYTHING ELSE IS WHY SHERIFF JOE LOST. HE'S NOT THE ONLY ONE. ADRIAN LOOKS LIKE HE WILL WIN AGAINST HELEN PURCELL. THOSE ARE CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS. AND IT'S A CHANGING ELECTORATE. IT'S NOT GOING RIGHT. IT'S GOING LEFT.

STAN BARNES: I THINK IT'S FAIR TO THE ARPAIO TEA LEAVES WE ARE READING, GEORGE SOROS SPENT 2 MILLION DOLLARS TO DEFEAT HIM HE ALSO SPENT A MILLION TO TRY TO DEFEAT BILL MONTGOMERY . I DON'T KNOW WHY HE'S SPENDING MONEY IN ARIZONA, BUT IT'S HIS RIGHT. ARPAIO WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN BEATEN IF IT WASN'T FOR THE $2 MILLION TO REMIND PEOPLE OF THE FATIGUE AT WHICH IM TALKING ABOUT.

JOHN LOREDO: HE SPENT 2 MILLION DOLLARS, ARPAIO HAD 12 MILLION DOLLARS THE MAJORITY OF IT FROM OUT OF STATE. IT'S NOT EVEN. ARPAIO HAD WAY MORE MONEY FROM OUT OF STATE THAN SOROS DID. THERE WAS A SMALL PERCETNAGE OF VOTERS MAYBE 20% AT THE MOST, NOT ENOUGH TO GIVE HIM THE WIN. IT WAS THE LATINO BASE COMING OUT THAT GAVE HIM THE WIN.
TED SIMONS: WE JUST SAW RECORDERS RESULTS THERE LOOKS LIKE HELEN PURCELL NO LONGER THE MARICOPA COUNTY REPORTER. LETS KEEP IT MOVING HERE. CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 1 TOM O'HALLERAN AGAINST PAUL BABEU. EVERYON AGREED THAT BABEU WAS A FLAWED CANDIDATE BUT HE STILL SURVIVED THE PRIMARY. WAS THIS A LITTLE SURPRISING AS FAR AS THE MARGIN OF VICTORY FOR O'HALLERAN?

STAN BARNES: I DON'T THINK SO. I PREDICTED ON THIS VERY SHOW THAT AS MUCH AS REPUBLICANS WOULD LIKE THAT DISTRICT TO BE A REPUBLICAN DISTRICT, ITS NOT A REPUBLICAN DISTRICT. IT'S A DEMOCRATIC DISTRICT. ANNES IN IT NOW, ANNE KIRKPATRICK AND SHE DEFEATED REPUBLICANS IN IT BEFORE AND PAUL BABEU HAD TOO MUCH BAGGAGE. HE'S NOT A BAD PERSON. POLITICS ARE NOT BEAN BAG AND IT'S A ROUGH SPORT. THERE WAS A LOT OF MONEY SPENT AGAINST HIM. ONCE THE NARRATIVE WAS SAID ABOUT HIM BEING A BAD GUY, HE COULDNT OVERCOME IT.

TED SIMONS: DISTRICT TWO, DEMOCRATS THINK IT'S IN PLAY IN THE SAME WAY REPUBLICAN THINK CD1 IS IN PLAY, IS IT THE SAME EQUATION? IS IT JUST A REPUBLICAN DISTRICT NOW?

JOHN LOREDO: I THINK BOTH ARE COMPETITIVE TO A CERTAIN EXTENT BUT BOTH HAVE AN EDGE. DEMOCRATS HAVE AN EDGE UP NORTH. REPUBLICANS HAVE AN EDGE IN THAT DISTRICT AT LEAST IN PERFORMANCE. THIS WAS NOT A NATIONALLY TARGETED RACE. IF YOU ARE GOING TO UNSEAT AN INCUMBENT, YOU HAVE TO HAVE NATIONAL MONEY BEHIND YOU TO DO THAT. THAT MONEY WAS NOT THERE FOR MATT HEINZ.

STAN BARNES: I WAS SURPRISED BECAUSE MARTHA ONLY WON BY A FEW HUNDRED VOTES. I THOUGHT IT WOULD BE A LOT CLOSER THAN IT ENDED UP BEING. SHES GOING TO PROBABLY SCARE OFF SERIOUS OPPOSTION FOR THE NEXT ROUND. THIS IS THE ELECTION DEMOCRATS SHOULD HAVE DONE BETTER IN THAT DISTRICT.
TED SIMONS: PROP 205, THE LEGALIZATION OF MARIJUANA, SHOULD THAT HAVE DONE BETTER CONSIDERING HOW WELL IT DID AROUND THE COUNTRY?

JOHN LOREDO: I DID REALLY WELL EVERYWHERE ELSE IN THIS CASE THE CAMPAIGN GOT OFF TO A LATE START. THERE WAS A LOT OF DISARRAY ON THIS TOPIC WITH COMPETING GROUP, GOT TOGETHER, BROKE APART. IT WAS A MESS. THEN YOU HAD LATE MONEY COME IN AGAINST IT. I THINK THEY OVERWHELMED THE PROSIDE.

STAN BARNES: THE LATE MONEY WAS IN LARGE PART FOCUSED RAISED BY DOUG DOUSEY WHO SPENT POLITICAL CAPITAL TO RAISE THE KIND OF FUNDS NECESSARY TO MAKE THE CASE. I'M PROUD OF HIM FOR DOING IT. I WAS ON THE NO SIDE OF IT. I'M GLAD IT FAILED. I DON'T THINK IT'S THE RIGHT POLICY IT'S INTERESTING THAT ARIZONA MANAGE WITH OUR LIBERTARIAN STREAK TO BE A NO ON THAT PROPOSITION.

TED SIMONS: WHEN SO MANY OTHERS SAID YES. I WAS TO GET TO THE CORPORATION COMISSION RACE BECAUSE AGAIN WE HAVE 5 CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR THREE SPOTS HERE. THERE WAS A LOT OF MONEY FLOWING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. IT LOOKS LIKE IN THE END, PLAYS OUT. REPUBLICANS IN. DEMOCRATS NO.

JOHN LOREDO: APS SPENT A LOT OF MONEY INTO THE RACE. THAT'S WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO. THERE WAS NOT A LOT OF MONEY. THERE WAS MUNDELLE I.E.'S ON T.V. WHEN YOU DUMP THAT MUCH MONEY INTO THE RACE, THEY WERE THE BIGGEST SPENDER AS THEY TYPICALLY ARE AND WHEN YOU'VE GOT THAT MUCH MONEY AND YOU GO AGAINST AND ELECTORATE THAT SWINGS RIGHT, IT'S A MATTER OF MATH.

TED SIMONS: WHAT DID YOU SEE?

STAN BARNES: I SAW TWO LARGE CORPORATIONS SPENDING A GREAT DEAL OF MONEY IN THE RACE. $6 MILLION FOR ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVICE AND ON THE OTHER SIDE, SOLAR CITY IN THEIR LEADERSHIP AND INDUSTRY ON ROOFTOP SOLAR ISSUES. THERE IS A DRY BUT IMPORTANT DEBATE PLAYING ITSELF OUT ABOUT HOW MUCH MONEY IT WILL COST TO PUT THOSE ON THE ROOF, HOW MUCH YOU PAY TO SERVICE THE INFRASTRUCTURE THAT KEEPS YOUR LIGHTS ON IN THE DARK WHEN THE CLOUDS COME. $6 MILLION IN THE ACC IS A RECORD. IT'S AN EARTHQUAKE IN POLITICAL POLITICS IN ARIZONA BUT WE DIDN'T HEAR IT BECAUSE OF THIS OTHER THING CALLED PRESIDENT TRUMP.

TED SIMONS: MUCH TALK OF ARIZONA TURNING BLUE. IS ARIZONA TURNING BLUE?

JOHN LOREDO: I THINK BY 2020 ARIZONA TURNS BLUE, BY 2018 FOR THE STATEWIDE ELECTIONS, YOU WILL SEE AT LEAST ANOTHER 350,000 REGISTERED LATINOS FOR THAT ELECTION. IT'S GOING TO HAPPEN. IT'S NOT A MATTER OF PERSUASION ANYMORE. IT'S A MATTER OF TURNOUT. THAT TURNOUT WILL SWING LEFT. THE REPUBLICANS CAN SPEND MONEY AND SQUEEZE OUT ANOTHER ELECTION AND ANOTHER ELECTION, BUT THAT'S NOT GOING TO BE POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE FUTURE.

TED SIMONS: WHAT DO YOU THINK?

STAN BARNES: THERE ARE PARTS I AGREE WITH. I'M NOT BLIND TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES. I'M NOT WILL TO SAY BECAUSE WE HAVE A GREATER LATINO POPULATION, WE HAVE A GREATER DEMOCRATIC POPULATION. YOU CAN'T USE A BROAD BRUSH ON THAT GROWING SECTOR OF OUR SOCIETY. JOHN AND I HAVE BEEN DOING THIS TOGETHER FOR A COUPLE OF DECADES AND THIS HAS BEEN THE THEME THAT THE LATINO VOTE IS COMING, IT'S GOING TO TURN ARIZONA BLUE. ITS BEEN A COUPLE OF DECADES OF THAT TALK AND IT HASN'T HAPPENED. MAYBE THE SLOPE IS LONGER AND ITS GOING TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DECADES BUT IT'S NOT HERE YET.

TED SIMONS: GREAT ANALYSIS. GOOD TO HAVE YOU BOTH HERE. THANKS FOR JOINING US.

Stan Barnes, founder and president, Copper State Consulting; John Loredo, consultant

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